Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Weakness and inadequate responses fuel terror"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:46⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel, this is the second Ukraine war update of the day for 26th August 2024. He's been doing some gardening including mowing the lawn, emptying the paddling pool and as a result, his MS means he's in a lot of pain and can barely walk! Fortunately, he can still talk so it's time for an update about the war in Ukraine.

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US Military Aid for Ukraine - Debate over aiding Ukrainian advances in Kursk

🎦 00:46-02:19⏩

The Biden administration is still debating whether to help Ukrainian forces hold and perhaps even expand the territory they now occupy in Russia's Kursk region. Jonathan infers that this aid would likely take the form of military aid or intelligence as opposed to other forms of support. He also highlights the comparison with Israel, who often take military action without prior US approval. Often this forces the US to retroactively endorse these actions. Ukraine appear to be adopting a similar strategy.

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US Military Aid for Ukraine - Quantities of US equipment already provided

🎦 02:19-04:22⏩

Jonathan discusses a comment from "Ukraine Battle Map" on his community page listing the quantities of US equipment provided to Ukraine so far:

• 2 out of 50 Patriot Missile Systems
• 190 out of 4,300 Strykers
• 300 out of 5,500 Bradley IFVs
• 31 out of 2,000-4,000 Abrams Tanks
• 200 out of 14,000 long range missiles
• 0 out of 3,000 fighter jets
• 200 out of 2,200 Howitzers.

He compares this to a comment from a pro-Russian troll (Simplicius) who claimed that NATO would be left defenceless if it provided these weapons. Jonathan points out that this is nonsense. He highlights that there are thousands of Bradleys sitting idle and that the US is even scrapping some of them. Jonathan uses this as an opportunity to remind his viewers that the US military budget dwarfs other countries. It spends more than the next 12 countries combined and as such, the US has more than enough resources to support Ukraine.

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German Military Aid for Ukraine - Training of Ukrainian Patriot Crews

🎦 04:22-07:30⏩

Jonathan discusses German training of Ukrainian Patriot crews. Some commentators (including German Air to Ukraine) have suggested that this training must be linked to the future provision of Patriot Systems to Ukraine but this has been denied by German authorities. They state that the training is not linked to the transfer of equipment and that trained personnel could be used as replacements for existing crews (due to natural wastage e.g. illness, retirement). Jonathan speculates on whether Ukraine may provide additional training of its own, over a nice cup of tea.

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German Military Aid for Ukraine - Marder 1A3 IFVs upgraded and in Ukrainian service

🎦 07:30-08:56⏩

Jonathan talks about the Marder 1A3 IFVs. He shows footage of a Marder in Ukrainian service which has been upgraded with slat armour and a drone cage as well as other upgrades. Germany has so far supplied 120 upgraded Marder 1A3s, partly in cooperation with Denmark, with another 20 planned. Whilst these are older vehicles, they are still significantly better than the Soviet-era equipment that Ukraine has been using. He makes the comparison with the US Bradley IFV.

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Ukrainian Military Production - Palianytsia loitering munition

🎦 08:56-10:02⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a new Ukrainian loitering munition called "Palianytsia" which Zelensky mentioned recently. Jonathan apologises for not showing the footage earlier, explaining that he didn't want to show the video due to the potential sensitivity, but has now been given the go ahead. This system appears to be very easy to assemble, cheap and effective and shows how Ukrainian military production is ramping up.

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Google Fined in Russia

🎦 10:02-11:26⏩

Russia has seized more than $100m from Google for "propaganda of war in Ukraine". The money was seized in 2022 from Google's Russian accounts, bankrupting the company's Russian division. This follows Google's decision to demonetize Russian accounts which Jonathan believes will hurt Russia more. The seized assets have been transferred to Russian state TV channels such as RT and Tsargrad TV to support the Kremlin's war effort. Jonathan explains that Tsargrad has close links to the US Republican party, having hired a former Fox News producer.

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Russian Missile strike - Cruise missile hits Dnipro River

🎦 11:26-12:14⏩

Jonathan refers to the footage he showed earlier of a Russian cruise missile hitting the Dnipro River. Whilst this is good news in that it missed its intended target, he laments the damage caused to the ecosystem. He highlights a (sarcastic) comment from his community page from a user called "Michael McKay" who said: "_Russian terrorists conducted a precision strike on the Dnipro River with a 10 million dollar cruise missile. It is not known how many Ukrainian fish died in this insidious attack_"

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Russian Missile and Drone attack on Ukraine - Analysis of targets

🎦 12:14-14:16⏩

Jonathan discusses the map he showed earlier showing the locations of Russian missile and drone strikes overnight. Initially he thought that these were targeting the industrial/military complex in western Ukraine but this doesn't seem to be the case. He cites a comment from "Ukraine Front Line" who claim that the strikes were directed at critical infrastructure, primarily energy related targets, and did not hit military facilities. This is a curious tactic as Russia would be better served degrading Ukraine's ability to fight. Jonathan hypothesises that this is part of Russia's strategy of economic warfare - to degrade Ukraine's economy and ability to function, much in the same way that Ukraine is targeting Russian oil infrastructure and logistics. He mentions that Moldova has experienced power outages, probably because it had started to import electricity from Ukraine again.

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EU Response to Russian Attacks - EU ambassador calls for more air defences

🎦 14:16-15:07⏩

Following the latest Russian attacks, the EU ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Matherinova, has called for enhanced air defence capabilities for Ukraine. Jonathan highlights a comment from a user on his community page ("Spartan News") which summarises Zelensky's response to the attacks:

• Allies must provide what they have promised
• Neighbouring countries must shoot down Russian missiles and drones
• The US must stop restricting the use of US weapons

Zelensky summed this up in a tweet saying "_Weakness and inadequate responses fuel terror_". Jonathan agrees with Zelensky's analysis.

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Near miss - Unidentified flying object enters Polish airspace from Ukraine

🎦 15:07-16:06⏩

During the wave of Russian attacks last night, Poland reported an unidentified object entering its airspace from Ukraine. The Polish Operational Commander, Maciej Kielcz, was ready to order its destruction and was in contact with the Defence Minister and the Chief of Staff. The object disappeared from radar approximately 25km inside Polish territory. Poor atmospheric conditions prevented the Polish authorities from engaging the target. Jonathan notes that this is a positive development in that the Poles were prepared to engage, which suggests a change in posture.

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Russian Missile and Drone attack on Ukraine - Moldova experiences power outages

🎦 16:06-16:29⏩

Jonathan discusses the power outages in Moldova after last night's attacks. The Moldovan energy operator, Moldelektrika, reported that these were a direct result of the strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This highlights the energy vulnerability of the region.

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Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, arrested in France

🎦 16:29-19:36⏩

Pavel Durov, CEO and Founder of messaging app Telegram, was detained at Le Bourget Airport in Paris on his return from Baku, Azerbaijan. Durov is a Russian citizen but also holds French citizenship. There is speculation that he may have met with Putin in Azerbaijan, although this has been denied. This event is significant because Telegram is the main communication tool used by the Russian military. Jonathan cites several sources (including Steve Rosenberg from the BBC and Michael Weiss from the New Lines Magazine) as evidence that Durov's detainment has caused panic in Russia. This is significant in of itself. Either the Russians are concerned about the potential loss of Telegram, or this is part of a strategy to push a grievance narrative or quite possibly, both.

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Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, arrested in France - Emmanuel Macron's response

🎦 19:36-30:13⏩

French President Emmanuel Macron has insisted that the arrest of Pavel Durov was not political and was part of an ongoing judicial investigation. He stressed that France is committed to freedom of expression, innovation and entrepreneurship, but that these freedoms are upheld within a legal framework and it is up to the judiciary to enforce the law. Jonathan seizes on Macron's comments about "the rule of law", launching into a discussion about the philosophical underpinnings of law, rights and freedoms. He argues that rights don't exist objectively, but rather are subjectively constructed through consensus, codified into law and enforced by the judiciary. As such, there is often a tension between competing rights, for example, the right to free speech and the right not to be subjected to hate speech. He points out that these disagreements are why we have courts to interpret and apply the law and that this process of debate and consensus-building is fundamental to a functioning democracy. He concludes that Macron's statement is correct: Durov was arrested for allegedly breaking the law, and it is now up to the French legal system to determine his guilt or innocence. He encourages Elon Musk to "shut up" as Durov's arrest had nothing to do with freedom of speech, rather his refusal to cooperate with the French authorities.

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Moldovan Oligarchs spread disinformation about EU

🎦 30:13-33:26⏩

Jonathan moves on to the subject of Moldovan oligarchs who are spreading disinformation designed to discredit Moldova's attempts to join the EU. He cites analysis from the Moldovan think tank "Watchdog" which found that two Moldovan oligarchs, Vyacheslav Platon (currently in the UK) and Ilan Shor (in Russia) have spent €136,000 in the past 90 days on Facebook adverts to spread these narratives. He points out how social media platforms such as Facebook, Telegram, TikTok and Twitter are used to spread disinformation and highlights that a recent EU report concluded that Twitter was the worst offender. This is why Elon Musk is worried, because if the EU takes action against Telegram, he may be next.

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Indian Prime Minister Modi visits Kyiv

🎦 33:26-37:30⏩

Jonathan discusses Indian Prime Minister Modi's recent visit to Kyiv. Experts believe that this was more than a peace-brokering mission and that Modi was probably more interested in exploring potential arms deals with Ukraine. India is currently heavily reliant on Russian arms (86%) but this has been decreasing as India develops its own arms industry. Jonathan highlights that Russia is becoming an increasingly unreliable arms supplier because they are unable to fulfill existing contracts and also because their equipment is not as good as western equivalents. He uses the example of the poor quality optics and components on some of the latest Russian tanks. Modi may be looking to Ukraine as a potential alternative source of weapons and technology in the future. The article also mentions that Modi has agreed to act as a go-between for Zelensky and Putin, although not in a formal capacity. This is interesting because India is part of the BRICS group of nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) who are trying to diminish the influence of the US dollar, but are also becoming increasingly uneasy about Russia.

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Sanctions - UAE acting as a transshipment point for goods to Russia

🎦 37:30-39:08⏩

Jonathan cites a tweet from US economist Robin Brooks showing that the UAE has become a major transshipment point for Western goods to Russia. The chart shows a huge increase in Armenian exports to the UAE (up to $800m per month) since 2022, which Jonathan believes are destined for Russia. This is despite the fact that the UAE has played a role in prisoner swaps. He concludes that the UAE is being duplicitous.

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Russian Missile and Drone attack on Ukraine - Footage of dam in Kyiv being hit

🎦 39:08-39:51⏩

Jonathan shows footage of the dam in Kyiv being hit in the latest round of attacks. This is further evidence that Russia has no interest in peace talks.

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US Public Opinion - Support for Ukraine increasing

🎦 39:51-41:21⏩

A recent poll by YouGov found that more Americans believe that Ukraine is winning the war against Russia (22%) compared to 16% who believe that Russia is winning. 34% believe that neither side is winning, and 28% are unsure. Jonathan highlights the differences in opinion between Democrats and Republicans. He believes that the recent Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has had several positive effects: it has boosted Ukrainian morale and made the US more likely to provide support.

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Ukraine & Israel - Similarities in their relationship with the US

🎦 41:21-42:24⏩

Jonathan talks about an article in the Financial Times which compares Ukraine's relationship with the US to that of Israel. The key point is that both countries are prepared to take significant military action without first securing US approval, in the hope that if they succeed, they will gain retrospective approval. The article goes on to say that the US is so heavily invested in Ukraine, that even if these actions fail, the US will still step in to help.

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US Politics - Trump impeachment - McMaster confirms Trump withheld Military Aid

🎦 42:24-45:02⏩

Jonathan plays a clip of Republican H.R. McMaster (Trump's National Security Advisor from 2017-2018) confirming that Trump had indeed withheld vital military aid to Ukraine in order to pressure Zelensky into digging up dirt on the Bidens. This was the basis of Trump's first impeachment. Jonathan points out that Trump is now trying to rewrite history by claiming that he provided Javelins to Ukraine, whereas in reality, this was a decision made by Congress, not Trump, who had tried to stall it.

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US Politics - Republican Senator Mike Lee (Utah) spreads Russian disinformation

🎦 45:02-46:42⏩

Jonathan expresses his disgust with Mike Lee, a Republican senator from Utah, for spreading Russian disinformation online. Lee recently shared a conspiracy theory on X (formerly Twitter) about the pro-Ukrainian online activist group NAFO. The theory, which originated from Kim Dotcom, a known conspiracy theorist facing extradition to the US from New Zealand, alleges that NAFO is a CIA-funded operation. Jonathan is particularly concerned that a sitting senator would spread such blatant disinformation, especially in light of warnings from other Republicans about the extent of Russian infiltration of the party. Jonathan sees Lee's actions as a threat to US national security and brands Lee as a "tool" of Russia.

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Putin & Gerasimov - Analysis of footage of meeting

🎦 46:42-49:31⏩

Jonathan revisits the video he discussed previously of a meeting between Putin and Gerasimov. This footage was unusual as it had no sound and key details were obscured. Some commentators suggested that this was evidence that Gerasimov was no longer alive. Jonathan pointed out at the time that the lack of sound meant it was impossible to date the footage and that it could have been filmed some time ago. Anton Gerashchenko recently highlighted the fact that there is a bottle of hand sanitiser on Putin's desk, suggesting that Putin is afraid of getting sick. Jonathan takes the opportunity to compare this to Putin's recent appearances in Chechnya and Azerbaijan where he was seen hugging people. He concludes that these must be body doubles, pointing to the behavioural and physical differences.

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Wrap up

🎦 49:31-49:31⏩

Jonathan says that's all he has time for - it's been a long one and he's off.

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