ATP Geopolitics

ISW Daily Report Summary

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Summary, 10th June 2025

The full ISW Report used to create this summary, as well as all historical reports for the Ukraine-War can be found at ISW - Ukraine Project

Key Developments

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be alternating between rhetoric promoting Russian ethnic nationalism and Russian multinationalism, yet remains consistently committed to fostering anti-Western sentiment and the militarisation of Russia's youth [1].
  • Russia is reportedly increasing the number of North Korean labour migrants entering the country, likely to bolster its workforce and to directly recruit them into the Russian military [5].
  • Ukraine and Russia conducted their second round of prisoner of war (POW) exchanges on 10th June, in line with agreements reached in Istanbul on 2nd June [10].
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Borova, Lyman, and Toretsk.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Toretsk.

Notable Anecdotes

  • President Putin highlighted the activities of "Movement of the First" and "Yunarmiya" (The Youth Army), both youth movements aimed at promoting military-patriotic education and pro-war sentiments among Russian children and teenagers, including through lessons by soldiers in schools [1].
  • The reported agreement for more North Korean migrants to Russia, potentially replacing Central Asian workers and joining the Russian military, constitutes a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2397, a resolution Russia previously vetoed efforts to extend a monitoring panel for [5, 6].
  • A chief sergeant from a Ukrainian artillery battery reported that Russian forces are conducting assaults using motorcycles and mopeds in the Novopavlivka direction in an attempt to reach the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border [61].

Frontline Summary

  • Kursk Oblast – Both Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted offensive operations on 10th June but did not make any confirmed advances [11, 12].
  • Sumy Oblast – Russian forces continued offensive operations on 10th June but did not make any confirmed advances [13, 14].
  • Kharkiv Oblast – Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kharkiv direction, reportedly regaining control over the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in northern Vovchansk [19].
  • Kupyansk Direction – Russian forces recently advanced, with geolocated footage indicating they seized Krasne Pershe [22].
  • Borova Direction – Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Novoyehorivka, as indicated by geolocated footage published on 9th June [26].
  • Lyman Direction – Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Torske and reportedly pushed Russian forces back between 400 to 500 metres in the Karpivka direction [30, 31].
  • Siversk Direction – Russian forces continued offensive operations on 10th June but did not make any confirmed advances [35, 36].
  • Chasiv Yar Direction – Russian forces continued offensive operations on 10th June but did not make any confirmed advances [37, 38].
  • Toretsk Direction – Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced, with Ukrainian forces advancing in central Dyliivka and an industrial area northwest of Toretsk, and Russian forces advancing northwest of Toretsk [40, 41]. Russian forces also reportedly advanced between 1.5 and 1.7 kilometres south of Popiv Yar [45].
  • Pokrovsk Direction – Russian forces continued offensive operations on 10th June but did not make any confirmed advances [55, 56].
  • Novopavlivka Direction – Russian forces recently advanced on the southwestern outskirts of Novomykolaivka, although Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed them back half a kilometre southeast of the same settlement [57, 58].
  • Kurakhove Direction – Russian forces continued offensive operations on 10th June but did not make any confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces maintaining limited positions within Kostyantynopil and Bahatyr [64, 65, 66].
  • Velyka Novosilka Direction – Ukrainian forces recently advanced, reportedly pushing Russian forces out of Fedorivka and continuing to hold Vesele [68, 69].
  • Hulyaipole Direction – Russian forces conducted offensive operations on 10th June but made no advances [74].
  • Western Zaporizhia Oblast – Russian forces conducted offensive operations on 10th June but made no advances [76].
  • Kherson Direction – Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations on 9th and 10th June but made no advances [79].

Additional Points of Note

  • Russian forces carried out a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 9th to 10th June, notably hitting a maternity hospital in Odesa City. The Ukrainian Air Force reported launching 315 Shahed and decoy drones and seven ballistic and cruise missiles, managing to shoot down 213 drones, two KN-23 ballistic missiles, and all five Iskander-K cruise missiles [81, 82, 83].
  • Russia and Belarus are continuing to deepen their cooperation, aiming to further integrate their economic, military, and national policies through the Union State framework. Discussions included strengthening bilateral cooperation and forming a Eurasian security architecture, with Belarus committing to deepen its cooperation with BRICS [86, 87, 88].

Sources