Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Summary, 5th February 2025
The full ISW Report used to create this summary, as well as all historical reports for the Ukraine-War can be found at ISW - Ukraine Project
Key Developments
- Ukrainian President Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's commitment to not compromising on sovereignty and territorial integrity in potential negotiations with Russia, while also stating that current military aid levels are insufficient to fully expel Russian forces. He expressed willingness to negotiate with Putin but stressed the need for peace agreements to ensure Ukraine's future defence capabilities and reiterated that Ukraine will not recognise Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory. [1, 2]
- Zelensky clarified that the Ukrainian constitution prohibits elections during wartime but affirmed Ukraine's dedication to holding elections post-war, in accordance with Ukrainian law. He highlighted the logistical and constitutional challenges of holding elections before the end of martial law, particularly regarding servicemember and refugee voting. [3, 5]
- Kremlin-linked figures, such as Viktor Medvedchuk, continue to express Russia's lack of interest in genuine negotiations, with Medvedchuk asserting Russia's ambition to reclaim "historical lands" of Ukraine and denying Ukraine's legitimacy as a state. [6]
- President Zelensky reported that Russian forces have suffered approximately 300,000 to 350,000 KIA and 600,000 to 700,000 WIA since February 2022. He attributed the high wounded-to-killed ratio to poor Russian field medicine and evacuation capabilities. [7]
- Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, targeting Russian military supply lines. [10, 11]
- Russia is restructuring its military administration, disaggregating peacetime administrative control of the Air Force and Navy from military districts to streamline ground force command and potentially expedite mobilisation. [14, 15]
- The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is implementing a stricter migration regime, prioritising domestic political stability and anti-migrant sentiment over addressing labour shortages. [17, 18]
- Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one POW exchange of 150 prisoners each, mediated by the UAE. [19, 20, 21]
Notable Anecdotes
- A Russian milblogger noted that the settlement of Novomlynsk, recently claimed captured by Russian forces, had a pre-invasion population of only about 15 people, highlighting the marginal gains being made at high cost. [30]
- Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces in the Kupyansk direction are utilising convict recruits and recently mobilised personnel with minimal training (one to two weeks) for infantry assaults, indicating a potential degradation in troop quality and a willingness to accept high casualties. [32]
- Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar direction are using all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and motorcycles for assaults despite muddy conditions, and also employing highly attritional attacks using civilian vehicles, illustrating desperate tactics. [43]
- Russian soldiers and their relatives continue to lodge complaints about poor treatment and provisioning. Relatives of soldiers from the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade signed a petition demanding investigation into illegal transfers and removal of the brigade commander. Soldiers of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade appealed for aid due to lack of food, clothing and medical supplies. [76, 78]
- A Russian soldier from the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment alleged that his commander physically assaulted him for refusing a frontline rotation under artillery fire, highlighting potential issues with discipline and morale within the Russian army. [79]
Frontline Summary
- Kursk Oblast Salient - Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast but made no confirmed advances. Clashes occurred northwest and southwest of Sudzha. Russian sources claimed advances near Sverdlikovo and Nikolaevo-Darino but these are unconfirmed. [22, 23]
- Kharkiv Oblast - Russian forces continued offensive operations north and northeast of Kharkiv City but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked in Vovchansk. [25, 26]
- Luhansk Oblast - Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction, seizing Zapadne. Fighting continued north, east, and southeast of Kupyansk. Russian sources claimed further advances but these are largely unconfirmed, with one claim about Novomlynsk being previously assessed by ISW as captured on January 31st. [28, 29, 31]
- Donetsk Oblast - Siversk Direction - Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Siversk but made no confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed advances northwest of Verkhnokamyanske, but this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces are reportedly accumulating personnel in the area and increasing assault frequency. [38, 39, 40]
- Donetsk Oblast - Chasiv Yar Direction - Russian forces continued attacks in and around Chasiv Yar but made no advances. Russian sources claimed advances in central and southwestern Chasiv Yar, unconfirmed by ISW. Ukrainian sources reported a significant increase in Russian assaults in this direction, including frontal assaults with ATVs and civilian vehicles. [41, 42, 43]
- Donetsk Oblast - Toretsk Direction - Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction, specifically in northern Toretsk. Fighting continued near and west of Toretsk. Russian sources claimed advances southeast of Torske, which are unconfirmed. Assaults in this area have also reportedly increased. [45, 46, 47, 48]
- Donetsk Oblast - Pokrovsk Direction - Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Nadiivka, while Russian forces advanced in southern Sribne, likely seizing the settlement. Russian forces continued assaults east, southeast, south, and southwest of Pokrovsk. Russian sources claimed further advances including the capture of Baranivka, none of which are confirmed by ISW. [53, 54, 56, 57]
- Donetsk Oblast - Kurakhove Direction - Russian forces marginally advanced southwest of Dachne. Offensive operations continued northwest, west, and southwest of Kurakhove. Russian sources claimed the capture of Dachne and further advances, but these are not confirmed. The situation near Dachne is described as tense with heavy Russian losses. [59, 60, 61, 63]
- Donetsk Oblast - Velyka Novosilka Direction - Russian forces continued attacks west of Velyka Novosilka but made no confirmed advances. [66]
- Southern Axis - Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not advance. Fighting was reported north and northeast of Robotyne. Russian sources claimed advances northwest of Myrne, unconfirmed by ISW. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian Buk air defence system in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. [67, 68, 69]
- Kherson Direction - Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported fighting in the Kherson direction. [70]
Additional Points of Note
Russia is implementing changes to its military district structure, seemingly to focus military districts on ground forces administration while separating administrative control for naval and air force assets. This reorganisation aims to streamline ground force command and potentially speed up mobilisation processes. The near-term impact on the battlefield in Ukraine is expected to be minimal. [14, 15, 16]
The Russian government is enacting a stricter migration policy which includes mandatory registration, geolocation tracking, and MVD approval for various activities for migrants. This policy prioritises domestic security concerns and appeasing ultranationalist sentiments over addressing Russia's labour shortages. [17, 18]
Sources
- [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCJRwlH948E ; https://www.kyivpost.com/post/46632
- [2] - https://isw.pub/UkrWar012425
- [3] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCJRwlH948E ; https://www.kyivpost.com/post/46632
- [5] - https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2024 ; https://www.president.gov.ua/ua/documents/constitution/konstituciya-ukrayini-rozdil-v ; https://unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/hlm/prgm/cph/experts/ukraine/ukr.constitution.e.pdf
- [6] - https://www.kp.ru/daily/27660/5045245/
- [7] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCJRwlH948E ; https://www.kyivpost.com/post/46632
- [10] - https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20595 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jwHAD4BFMDeYoY1De5DGvRnGnmr31cfV56cyWZELYuMbUGPvFivnubniFqPWtgWZl
- [11] - https://t.me/akovalenko1989/8754 ; https://t.me/akovalenko1989/8755
- [14] - https://t.me/tass_agency/299228 ; http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/0001202502050007 ; https://www.rbc.ru/politics/05/02/2025/67a366509a79472bd62fc9e9 ; https://iz.ru/1834296/2025-02-05/putin-otmenil-mezhvidovoi-status-voennykh-okrugov-v-rossii ; https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1006470
- [15] - https://www.rbc.ru/politics/24/06/2024/66794f549a7947208052aa55
- [17] - https://t.me/mediamvd/36335 ; https://t.me/mediamvd/36336; https://www.svoboda.org/a/v-rossii-vstupil-v-silu-rezhim-spetsvysylki-migrantov/33304315.html
- [18] - https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1951309/
- [19] - https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13230; https://suspilne.media/941561-ukraina-i-rf-proveli-obmin-polonenimi/
- [20] - https://koordshtab.gov.ua/posts/ukrayina-povernula-z-rosiyskoyi-nevoli-150-zakhysnykiv-1889; https://t.me/Koord_shtab/10645
- [21] - https://t.me/mod_russia/48574
- [22] - https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/23431; https://t.me/dva_majors/63861; https://t.me/yurasumy/20939
- [23] - https://t.me/tass_agency/299175; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/23431; https://t.me/yurasumy/20939
- [25] - https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20598 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Yqp5FiNyxxSkLQcfVRxqA4VyBV8oLXYtQrgV5xZ2e7EZcAQiELodbPVXRLCsNtUql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02oqnBEvxZX4JdyughFxnf8RZ1m5zjnAcS3tkxF3hZ3QJVXwAZAL5QJdScwjU8N813l ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/4936
- [26] - https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/23434
- [28] - https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2538
- [29] - https://t.me/mod_russia/48568 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-31-2025
- [30] - https://t.me/sashakots/51715
- [32] - https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/02/04/u-nyh-systema-pobudovana-na-vtratah-rosijskyh-shturmovykiv-na-kupyanshhyni-vidpravlyayut-pomyraty-vtemnu/
- [38] - https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20598
- [40] - https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/02/05/syly-oborony-na-siverskomu-napryamku-kozhen-metr-cze-borotba/
- [43] - https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/02/05/vulychni-boyi-ta-bandzaj-ataky-yak-tryvaye-bytva-za-chasiv-yar-i-toreczk/
- [46] - https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1886756420382593114; https://x.com/Zeldamices/status/1886851695310680459; https://x.com/Zeldamices/status/1886860436026384828
- [53] - https://x.com/SibirPrizrak/status/1887124860800843826; https://t.me/urga_74/3428; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8293?single; https://t.me/rusich_army/20587
- [54] - https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=636703722216235; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8296
- [59] - https://t.me/mechanized33/739; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8292
- [63] - https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/02/05/novopavlivskyj-napryamok-rosiyany-shturmuyut-na-bagi-ale-finishuyut-u-chornyh-paketah/
- [66] - https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Yqp5FiNyxxSkLQcfVRxqA4VyBV8oLXYtQrgV5xZ2e7EZcAQiELodbPVXRLCsNtUql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02oqnBEvxZX4JdyughFxnf8RZ1m5zjnAcS3tkxF3hZ3QJVXwAZAL5QJdScwjU8N813l
- [76] - https://t.me/astrapress/73832
- [78] - https://t.me/mobilizationnews/21957
- [79] - https://t.me/mobilizationnews/21941
- [31] - https://t.me/RVvoenkor/85709 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/20937
- [39] - https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/23436
- [42] - https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/23432; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/85678; https://t.me/wargonzo/24655
- [47] - https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/2344
- [57] - https://t.me/yurasumy/20928 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/23441
- [60] - https://t.me/yurasumy/20945
- [68] - https://t.me/wargonzo/24655
- [69] - https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20595
- [70] - https://mfa.gov.ua/news/komentar-rechnika-mzs-georgiya-tihogo-shchodo-vidterminuvannya-rotaciyi-magate-na-zaes; https://suspilne.media/zaporizhzhia/941491-cerez-vidsutnist-bezpekovih-garantij-z-boku-rf-magate-vidterminuvalo-rotaciu-misii-na-zaes-mzs-ukraini/
- [74] - https://t.me/synegubov/12968 ; https://suspilne.media/941043-zelenskij-nazvav-kilkist-zagiblih-na-vijni-ukrainciv-zsu-znisili-komandnij-punkt-u-kurskij-oblasti-1078-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1738739630&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
- [75] - https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BHRKFwZbi/; https://suspilne.media/941043-zelenskij-nazvav-kilkist-zagiblih-na-vijni-ukrainciv-zsu-znisili-komandnij-punkt-u-kurskij-oblasti-1078-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1738740702&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
- [80] - https://t.me/milinfolive/141343 ; https://t.me/uvznews/2832
- [81] - https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1006495