Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They always move the Russian defensive lines up to a point, any point where the Russians have shown their presence in terms of there's a vehicle that's been there, it may have been blown up and they, there may be no Russians in that area right now, but that's Russian control because there was a vehicle there, they attacked there and so on and so forth."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-03:06⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War Frontline Update for 16/03/2024 recorded very late in the evening after a long day of watching rugby (France beat England) and drinking beer and wine. Before going to the frontline update, Jonathan wants to discuss what he refers to as "Mapgate" which he describes as a "spat" between Andrew Perpetua and Suriat maps (two of the sources used on his maps) which he summarises. He explains that Andrew has a database of Suriat Maps mistakes and erroneous claims which will be released when the time is right, which he finds very amusing. He reminds viewers that he likes to use three different sources for his maps - Suriat Maps (pro-Russian), Andrew Perpetua (pro-Ukrainian but objective) and Deep State Maps (pro-Ukrainian) and encourages his viewers to familiarise themselves with his map key.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northern Frontline Update
🎦 03:07-05:38⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation north of the border in Kursk Oblast and Belgorod Oblast which he describes as "chaotic" with lots happening. He states he's unsure what is going on as there are many claims. The Freedom of Russia Legion has denied Russian claims that they've been wiped out, posting a video showing the smouldering ruin of a school in Rezhivka, 10km from the border which they claim the Russians are shelling. He refers to warnings about potential large-scale attacks on Belgorod and surrounding areas by the Free Russian army and air raids and explosions but is unsure what is going on. Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua is damning of the attacks, believing them to be a waste of equipment, effort and human lives. Jonathan states he doesn't have enough information to comment but will revisit this when the situation is clearer. He notes that some of the successes are unmeasurable and relates this back to the timing, which is the days leading up to the election weekend in Russia.
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Northeastern Frontline Update: Svatove-Kreminna Line
🎦 05:38-06:15⏩
Jonathan states there is nothing to report from the northeastern sector (Svatove-Kreminna line) with no mapping changes all the way down to Avdiivka. There have been no changes reported in Bakhmut, Terny, Tosk, Kupyansk, Tabaivka or elsewhere. He notes that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has also not reported any significant activity in this sector.
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Bakhmut Frontline Update: Ivanivske and Khromove
🎦 06:15-07:39⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been no changes around Bakhmut for a fifth consecutive day with positional fighting continuing. This includes no movement in Ivanivske to the west of Bakhmut, a key settlement (along with Khromove and Bohdanivka) in maintaining the buffer zone around Chasiv Yar. Jonathan notes that during Andrew Perpetua's live stream, they noted a lot of destroyed Russian vehicles whilst reviewing a random video about women serving in the Ukrainian armed forces and commented how much destroyed equipment must be out there that is not included in databases. He adds that this happens frequently, where hauls of equipment are found and added retrospectively. Jonathan states there has also been a lot of Russian equipment destroyed around Klishchivka, but no mapping changes between Avdiivka and Bakhmut.
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Avdiivka Frontline Update: Bediche and Opytne
🎦 07:39-10:33⏩
Jonathan reports some changes around Avdiivka. Andrew Perpetua and Deep State Map show that the Russians control a bit more of Bediche. Deep State Map also shows some Russian gains between Opytne and Bediche, although Andrew Perpetua is not yet confident about this. Jonathan notes that Suriat Maps shows the area in red (representing Russian gains), but believes this is because Suriat Maps tends to move the Russian defensive lines up to any point where the Russians have shown their presence - whether that's a vehicle, a blown-up vehicle, or even if the Russians are no longer present. Jonathan states this is what gives Suriat Maps the rationale to change the mapping, whereas he believes it's more likely a grey zone. Jonathan refers to an attack along a road in the area by the Russians who got all the way to a point near Vodiane (although the attack failed after their APC was destroyed by a Bradley). Although the Russians are no longer present, Suriat Maps classes the area as Russian controlled. Jonathan states he agrees with Andrew Perpetua that the Russians control a good half of Bediche with the rest being a grey zone. He observes that the Ukrainians are staying back from this area and coming down to attack the Russians before pulling back again. Jonathan explains that he prefers Andrew Perpetua's mapping as he explains the rationale behind the mapping decisions in his live streams, unlike Suriat Maps, who will just state the Russians have done this or that. Jonathan states he believes Andrew Perpetua to be more objective, despite Suriat Maps followers claiming he's an accurate mapper and "ahead of the game". He notes that Suriat Maps often rushes to make changes and then has to backtrack later.
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Donetsk Oblast: Tonenke and Novobakhmutivka
🎦 10:33-12:07⏩
Jonathan reports some activity in Tonenke with Deep State Maps showing some gains for the Russians, which the ISW has confirmed (geolocated footage from 15th March 2024 shows Russian armoured columns advancing west of Tonenke). Footage published on 16th March 2024 shows elements of the 110th Motorised Rifle Brigade advancing into and raising a flag in Novobakhmutivka. Jonathan believes that although there is footage of the Russians advancing, they are then hammered, questioning what exactly this means in terms of who controls the area. He notes that once again, Suriat Maps shows the Russians having far greater control than the other two mappers and suspects this is because Suriat Maps is basing the mapping changes on the presence of destroyed Russian BMPs.
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Donetsk Oblast: Novobakhmutivka - Analysis
🎦 12:07-13:09⏩
Jonathan reiterates his point about Suriat Maps showing Russian gains where other maps do not. He states that he believes that the evidence used by Suriat Maps to justify the changes in mapping is actually evidence that the area is a grey zone, and that the Russians may or may not take control of this area in the coming days/weeks. He contrasts this with Andrew Perpetua, who is far more conservative and, as such, viewers can be sure that changes on his maps are accurate and justified.
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Donetsk Oblast: Pervomaiske and Novobakhmutivka
🎦 13:09-14:18⏩
Jonathan states that Novobakhmutivka, a small agricultural settlement south of Pervomaiske, is under Russian control according to video footage. He describes how the Avdiivka salient (now more of a straight line) runs from Pervomaiske (where the Russians have been taking chunks of Ukrainian-held territory) to Novobakhmutivka. He suspects that this whole area is now a grey zone, and that the Ukrainians are probably some distance away. Jonathan shows footage of the "liberation" of Novobakhmutivka by soldiers of the 110th Brigade on 11th March 2024 and footage of Russian assaults on the settlement, noting that the ISW has used this footage to geolocate Russian positions and confirm their control of the settlement.
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Donetsk Oblast: Tonenke and Semenivka
🎦 14:18-15:13⏩
Jonathan states that a Russian milblogger claimed an armoured group advanced west of Tonenke, reaching the outskirts of Semenivka (although they did not advance further) which the ISW has reported. Jonathan is unsure why the ISW has grouped these two events together, as Tonenke and Semenivka are some distance apart and are not connected (Tonenke is south of Avdiivka whereas Semenivka is closer to Opytne and Bediche).
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Avdiivka: Russian Tactics and Ukrainian Assessment
🎦 15:13-17:08⏩
Jonathan summarises the ISW's overall assessment of the situation around Avdiivka. A Ukrainian battalion commander stated that Russian forces are changing tactics, moving away from Wagner-style meat grinder infantry assaults and using armoured vehicles to increase and maintain pressure on the Ukrainians, attacking with multiple divisions in an attempt to achieve a 10:1 numerical advantage. There is uncertainty about whether this is a precursor to a larger offensive or whether the Russians are culminating (running out of momentum and reserves). The Ukrainian commander is unable to say confidently that the situation is stable. Russian sources claim that Ukrainian counterattacks near Avdiivka have lost momentum, suggesting they either lack reserves or are withdrawing to lines further back, however, the ISW has not observed any confirmation of this. Another prominent Russian milblogger claimed that the Ukrainians recovered quickly following the fall of Avdiivka, achieving numerical superiority. The ISW is also unable to confirm this claim, describing the situation west of Avdiivka as "dynamic". Jonathan shares his opinion that, in general, the Russians are culminating in most areas (Bakhmut and Avdiivka) and that it is becoming more difficult for them to grind out territorial gains. He believes the Ukrainians have brought in reserves and have enough artillery to hold the line for now.
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Donetsk Oblast: Mariinka, Novomykhailivka, Kostantynivka and Vodiane
🎦 17:08-18:46⏩
Jonathan states there are no changes in Mariinka or Novomykhailivka (which looks like it will fall to the Russians soon). He states that Kostantynivka must be in the Russians' sights which is worrying as the Russians desperately want to take control of this area. Jonathan explains that Andrew Perpetua believes that although the Russians are struggling, having lost a lot of equipment (particularly around Novomykhailivka), the Ukrainians have air defence systems, electronic warfare and other equipment in Vodiane. He adds that the higher ground in this area allows the Ukrainians to use this equipment effectively. Jonathan explains that if the Ukrainians lose ground, they will have to push their equipment back, meaning they will have less coverage of the area, so it is vital that they hold the line.
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Donetsk Oblast: Urozhaine
🎦 18:46-19:45⏩
Jonathan reports some Ukrainian gains east of Urozhaine according to Suriat Maps. He believes it's probably not so much gains but the Ukrainians taking back control of the treeline, adding that the other mappers don't agree with this assessment. Jonathan suspects this could be because Suriat Maps was overzealous, and there is now evidence to suggest the Ukrainians were already in those positions. He explains that often there is video footage released of the Russians hitting Ukrainian trenches with bombs, artillery or FPV drones and it is these videos that often lead to mapping being updated as it proves the Ukrainians are present in those locations.
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Donetsk Oblast: Novomykhailivka and Pryiutne
🎦 19:45-20:17⏩
The ISW reports positional fighting in the Novomykhailivka area. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advanced in Pryiutne (both mappers showed this in yesterday's update).
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Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Robotyne and Vodyane
🎦 20:17-21:28⏩
Jonathan reports that Andrew Perpetua is showing some Russian gains to the northwest of Vodyane, close to Robotyne. Suriat Maps also claims Russian gains here. Suriat Maps claims that the Russians continue to advance northwest of Vodyane towards the Surovikin line, although there is still disagreement over who controls this part of the Surovikin line. Jonathan believes this is a change that has happened since JR updated his maps and expects to see this reflected in tomorrow's map update. Jonathan adds that the ISW describes the situation in this area as "positional", with no further details.
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Kherson Oblast: Krinky
🎦 21:28-22:53⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians are becoming more active in Krinky, having taken their "foot off the gas" to reconstitute. The ISW reports positional fighting on the east/left bank of the Dnipro River, including around Krinky. A Russian milblogger has claimed that Ukrainian forces still maintain positions near the Antonivsky Bridge, although it was not specified whether this refers to the road or rail bridge (both of which have been destroyed). Jonathan notes that there has been nothing to report in this area for some time. Jonathan highlights the location of the bridges on the map, both destroyed, adding that the Ukrainians were in control of this area.
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Wrap up
🎦 22:53-24:02⏩
Jonathan signs off, reminding viewers that the Krinky area has been something of an equipment graveyard for the Russians, and thanking them for watching. He encourages his viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He also announces that there will be a live stream tomorrow night with Greg Terry and Professor Gerdes to raise money for armoured medical vehicles being sent from the UK. JR will be joining the stream and will be generously matching donations as he did with the drone fundraiser. The live stream will be a Q&A with the mapping update and a discussion about what's been happening.
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