Ukraine Conflict: 2-Day Full Frontline Update

"Russian commanders are reportedly coercing mobilised personnel to sign military contracts by threatening redeployment to assault companies for meat assaults, highlighting demoralisation and fatigue among Russian forces."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for his two-day frontline update for 13/02/2025 noting there are "not too many blue pins on the map" (Ukrainian advances). This will be a relatively quick update. He comments that there are "quite a few purple pins" (Russian advances), however, these do not represent any major gains. Overall, Jonathan believes that the situation is largely unchanged from his previous update where he states that the Russians may be culminating or at least are unable to sustain the rate of attack in certain areas.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kreminna Front: Prokrosk - Russian pressure decreasing, Ukrainian counterattacks

🎦 00:29-02:43⏩
Jonathan is using a map from [source not mentioned] to illustrate the situation. He notes that the front line is fairly stable and that the Russians are attempting to make gains to the north and south having been held back by Ukrainian fortifications. He uses a thread from Twitter account Playfra to support his analysis. In the Pishchane area, Ukrainian forces are repelling attacks and have pushed back Russian forces in the areas of Kotlyne and Pishchane.

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Kreminna Front: South West of Kreminna - Russians make gains.

🎦 02:43-07:16⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation in the area South West of Kreminna, to the south of the front line discussed in Topic 2. Again, Jonathan uses Playfra's thread. He notes that the situation in the area is stable with the exception of fighting around Karakivka. According to Suriyak maps, Karakivka has fallen to Russian forces and Ukrainians are under pressure in Dzhomba (immediately to the South West). Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua's map shows Dzhomba as a grey zone. Jonathan notes Suriyak maps shows Russian advances in the area (south of Dzhomba) but questions this. He analyses the situation in the settlements of Kostiantynivka (under constant attack by Russian forces), Zelenyi Kut (specifically Zelenivka) where the settlement changed hands twice in one day with reports of two Russian tanks and three MTLBs destroyed, and Andriivka. In Andriivka, Russian forces have consolidated previous gains and are attempting to advance whilst Ukrainian forces control the northern part of the town. Russian forces have taken a trench system on a hill overlooking Andriivka giving them an advantage. Jonathan believes that Ukrainian forces will likely retreat from Dzhomba and Ulahiv to avoid encirclement. Jonathan predicts that Ukrainian forces will likely fall back to the line between Kostiantynivka and Rozdoliv before falling back to a more defensible line between Oleksiivka, Baharty and Komar.

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Zaporizhzhia Front: South West of Orikhiv - Minor Russian gains, Ukrainian counterattacks

🎦 07:16-08:57⏩
Jonathan analyses the Zaporizhzhia front, specifically the area to the South West of Orikhiv. He analyses the situation around the settlement of Serebryanske where he highlights the difficulties he has pronouncing some of the Ukrainian place names. Using maps from [source not mentioned - likely Andrew Perpetua's] he analyses the situation in and around Serebryanske noting that Russian forces are clearing the last remaining buildings in the north of the village and attacking Zaporizke (a settlement to the south west of Serebryanske). Russian forces have taken the central part of the town and fighting has now moved to the western part. Further south, Russian forces are attempting to recapture ground lost to Ukrainian counterattacks in the forested area south of Nadiivka whilst also attacking a tree line to the north of Pryyutne, threatening Ukrainian positions in Zaporizke.

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Kreminna Front: South of Kreminna - Situation in Uzponivka, potential Russian encirclement

🎦 08:57-13:16⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation around Uspenivka, initially mistakenly believing that Russian forces had already captured the settlement. He notes that this is an easy mistake to make as there are multiple places in Ukraine with the same name. He clarifies that the settlement he was thinking of was south of Velyka Novosilka on the Velyka Novosilka - Vuhledar line (Donetsk Oblast). The Uspenivka Jonathan is discussing in this section is south of Kreminna (Luhansk Oblast). He highlights the strategic importance of Uspenivka which is the last major settlement before Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and also a logistics hub. He explains that if Russia were to take Uspenivka, they could advance to the railway line running from Lyman to Dnipro and use that as an "infantry highway". Jonathan highlights that there are defensive positions in the area and discusses the importance of Ukrainian forces holding Udachne (which is close to the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). He notes that there are a number of terrain features such as a pond near Udachne that are advantageous for defence. He uses Andrew Perpetua's map to illustrate his point. Jonathan then moves on to discuss the situation in Kotlyne and Pishchane (using information from Playfra). He describes how Ukrainian forces (including the Skala Battalion) conducted successful counterattacks, recapturing most of Kotlyne. He notes reports of Ukrainian advances north of Kotlyne with claims that Russian forces have retreated to the mine north east of the town. Citing Deepstate maps and other sources, he reports that Pishchane has been liberated and that Russian forces are retreating in mine number 3 east of Pishchane. Jonathan concludes that the Russian advance has been blunted in the area and that they are at risk of encirclement, with deteriorating logistics.

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Kreminna Front: South of Kreminna - Ukrainian counterattacks

🎦 13:16-14:12⏩
Jonathan continues his analysis of the Kreminna front and notes reports of Ukrainian counterattacks in Dachne and Lysivka, south of Kreminna. Jonathan explains that information in the area is limited, but that Ukrainian forces claim to have secured the eastern part of Dachne, but this has not been verified by geolocation.

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Kreminna Front: South of Kreminna - Russian advances toward T0504 Highway

🎦 14:12-16:15⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the situation around the T0504 Highway, which runs south from Kreminna. He notes that the area around the highway is under a lot of pressure as Russian forces attempt to take control of the highway. He describes how Russian forces are getting increasingly close to the highway and highlights the junction at Voznesenka, which has been attacked numerous times. He analyses the situation in the area, noting that Ukrainian forces have conducted a successful counter attack in Voivodyne (north east of the T0504 Highway) and briefly recaptured the meat processing plant before coming under Russian attack again. Jonathan highlights the lack of manpower being a serious issue for Ukrainian forces.

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Kreminna Front: Svatove Area - Minor Russian Gains, Ukrainian counterattacks in Turetsk

🎦 16:15-18:37⏩
Jonathan notes reports of minor Russian gains in the Vilshana - Stelmakhivka area (south west of Svatove). He goes on to discuss reports of Ukrainian counterattacks in Turetsk. He uses a comment from a user called Grayskull to discuss Ukrainian gains in the north western part of Turetsk. Jonathan then returns to the situation in Kamyanka (south west of Kreminna) and notes that Twitter user Grayskull is reporting Ukrainian advances. Jonathan comments that this is consistent with what he had heard previously, but at the time had no evidence to report it. Jonathan notes that these gains are not that significant.

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Kreminna Front/Kupyansk Front: North of Svatove, West of Svatove - Situation unchanged in Chervonopopivka, Russian gains near Bilohorivka

🎦 18:37-19:40⏩
Moving to the Svatove - Kreminna line, Jonathan notes there have been no changes in Chervonopopivka (which is good news). He then discusses the situation south of Bilohorivka, noting that Andrew Perpetua's map shows slight gains for the Russians whereas Suriyak's maps shows substantial changes in the area. Jonathan is sceptical about Suriyak's assessment and believes Andrew Perpetua's is more accurate.

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Kupyansk Front: West of Svatove - Russian Gains

🎦 19:40-20:05⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation between Makiivka and Balky-Zorivka (west of Svatove) and comments that Russian forces have made minor gains, advancing westwards over the Zherebets River. Jonathan expresses disappointment that Ukrainian forces allowed Russian forces to gain such a strong foothold in this area.

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Kursk Oblast: North of Kupyansk - Russian and Ukrainian Gains

🎦 20:05-21:25⏩
Moving north to Kursk Oblast in Russia, Jonathan notes that Russian forces have made some gains west of the Kursk salient, with Andrew Perpetua's map showing Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Sverdlykove area. Jonathan suggests this is likely a response to Ukrainian attempts to advance in the area, specifically around Makhanovka, which Ukrainian forces now claim to have retaken. Jonathan, citing Grayskull, notes that there is a large grey zone in the area and that Andrew Perpetua shows this as a grey zone whereas Suriyak shows this area under Russian control.

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General Points, Demoralisation, North Korean Tactics

🎦 21:25-22:01⏩
Jonathan discusses information from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which highlights reports that Russian commanders are forcing mobilised personnel into signing contracts by threatening to redeploy them to assault companies for "meat assaults". He comments that this highlights the fatigue and demoralisation amongst Russian forces. There are also reports that North Korean tactics have changed, with soldiers now operating in smaller groups of 15-20, rather than the groups of 50 that were previously reported. The report confirms that North Korean forces continue to suffer heavy losses.

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Wrap Up

🎦 22:01-22:36⏩
Jonathan concludes that there haven't been any significant changes over the past two days, although the Ukrainians are under pressure in a number of areas including Karakivka. He thanks everyone for watching.

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