Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Disinformation invades our head spaces. Are we protecting our head spaces? Do we need help to protect our head spaces? Yes. We're too busy, we're not knowledgeable enough, or we even don't want to because we're already halfway down that rabbit hole."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of the 3rd November 2024 Ukraine War Update. He explains this is a combined "military aid and geopolitics video"

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine developing indigenous ballistic and cruise missiles

🎦 00:17-01:50⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine is developing it's own indigenous ballistic and cruise missiles. He has seen claims that these will be ready by mid 2025 although this may just apply to the private contractor who made the claim. Ukraine is thought to have already developed the "Neptune" anti-ship cruise missile and the Hrym-2 ballistic missile. Yehor Chernev, chairman of Ukraine's delegation to NATO has told The Telegraph that the Hrym-2, which has a 310 mile range, is nearly ready for action. Jonathan thinks the term "almost ready for action" could mean sooner than 6 months in the context of the war. He thinks that Ukraine desperately needs these missiles to strike targets in the Russian rear.

Return to top⤴️

Australia transfers JDAM-ER guided glide bombs to Ukraine

🎦 01:50-03:43⏩
Jonathan reports that Australia has transferred an unknown quantity of decommissioned JDAM-ER (Joint Direct Attack Munition - Extended Range) to Ukraine. These guided glide bombs, although a useful piece of kit, are known to have had issues with electronic warfare and there have been claims that the munitions have been interfered with. Jonathan mentions the ground launched variant, GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb) which is launched from MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket Systems) and has also suffered from interference. There has been criticism of the way the Ukrainians have been using the munitions and there have been calls for better training.

Return to top⤴️

Sweden transfers PBV-302 tracked armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine

🎦 03:43-05:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Sweden has transferred PBV-302 tracked armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine. These are designed for use in difficult off road terrain and can overcome water obstacles. Jonathan says there are between 200 and 600 although the true number is probably nearer 200. Jonathan shows footage of the PBV-302 in action. The PBV-302 can reach speeds of up to 65km/h and carry up to 11 people including crew. He mentions that Sweden decommissioned them in 2014. Although old, Jonathan notes that Ukraine are still using other old vehicles like the American M113s and the Dutch version, the YPR-765.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine successfully using VBAT reconnaissance drones supplied by the US

🎦 05:17-07:46⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has been secretly using VBAT reconnaissance drones which have proven successful and have not been susceptible to electronic warfare. They have been using a batch supplied by American company Shield AI since June and one was used in August to detect a Russian Buk air defence system which was subsequently destroyed by HIMARS. Jonathan then shows a video explaining the VBAT drone and highlighting some of it's capabilities including it's VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) capability which means it can operate from a very small area, aboard ships and in urban areas. The drone uses a ducted fan propulsion system for safety as there are no exposed rotors. It is powered by a powerful Suta TOA 288 engine which gives it a long endurance.

Return to top⤴️

Successful testing of Ukrainian Varta 2 armoured vehicle with a SIG 30mm gun

🎦 07:46-08:23⏩
Jonathan reports on the successful testing of the new Ukrainian Varta 2 armoured vehicle. It is equipped with a Ukrainian made SIG 30mm gun. Jonathan is impressed that Ukraine are manufacturing their own equipment as it will lead to "increased sustainability of their war project". Jonathan likens it to a BMP (Soviet infantry fighting vehicle).

Return to top⤴️

Czech President authorises 60 Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine

🎦 08:23-08:44⏩
Czech President Petr Pavel has authorised 60 Czech citizens to fight in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Over 180 citizens had applied. Czech law prevents citizens from fighting in foreign armies without the Presidents authorisation.

Return to top⤴️

Russia using North Korean 82mm mortar bombs

🎦 08:44-09:41⏩
Jonathan shows footage of Russian soldiers cleaning North Korean 82mm mortar bombs. The Russians claim that only 1 in 5 are in working order. According to military experts, around half of the shells Russia is using are from North Korea. North Korea is thought to be supplying between 3 and 5 million shells a year. Jonathan disputes the claims of a "shell famine" in Ukraine although he concedes Ukraine is still at a disadvantage with a shell ratio of 1:2, an improvement on the 1:7 ratio seen previously.

Return to top⤴️

Moldovan Presidential Election and concerns over Russian interference

🎦 09:41-17:55⏩
Jonathan discusses the Moldovan presidential elections which are taking place today. Pro-European Maya Sandu, who advocates for integration with the EU and a complete severance of ties with Russia is competing against former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo who wants closer ties with Russia. The first round of voting saw Maya Sandu take 42% of the vote and Alexandr Stoianoglo take 26% of the vote. There are worries that Moldova could fall back into Russia's orbit of influence. Romanian political analyst Radu Hosu has given advice on how to interpret the results of the election and to mitigate against potential heart attacks:

• The Central Electoral Commission website will crash because of high demand
• The percentage figures on the website are the percentages of precincts counted and not of votes.
• Small rural precincts will count first and will skew the results towards the pro-Russian candidate. Larger, urban areas count later and will skew results in favour of Maya Sandu

Jonathan then shows footage of voters from Russia being brought in "en masse" to vote at the Moldovan Embassy in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. They have arrived in organised groups and are accompanied by "curators". He then shows footage of coaches of people being brought in from Russia. Derek Tayners has created a thread on X about Russian interference. Russia has started a campaign trying to portray Maya Sandu and Romania as trying to buy votes.

• They are setting the stage for claims of cheating if Maya Sandu wins.
• Over 30,000 people have entered Moldova in the last 24 hours, most of them holding Moldovan passports but living in Russia. They have been flown into Istanbul and then brought by bus to the Moldovan border with the Kremlin paying for the transportation.
• There are reports that the authorities in the breakaway region of Transnistria will bus tens of thousands of people into Moldova to vote.

Jonathan is worried that if Maya Sandu wins, the Russians will not just go home quietly. By 10 am this morning, turnout was 10.4%, higher than the first round but lower than the 2020 elections which Maya Sandu won. 30,000 diaspora votes have been cast so far with long queues reported in Moscow, Istanbul and Bucharest. There are worries that turnout will be very high in Transnistria which will mitigate against the high turnout elsewhere. Jonathan hopes that Moldovan diaspora voters in the EU will be voting for the pro-EU candidate. There have been reports that Russia will try to disrupt diaspora voting in Romania where the vote is expected to be "overwhelmingly pro-Sandu".

• There are also reports that Russia is flying planeloads of voters into Belarus to support the puppet candidate.
• Turnout in Belarus could reach 60% because of Russian interference.
• There is an "unprecedented level of mobilisation" in Transnistria, likely organised by the pro-Russian authorities. The line of cars waiting to enter Moldova from Transnistria is several kilometres long and is continuing to grow.

Jonathan mentions the more positive news that Moldovans in Bucharest are turning up to vote in large numbers. 94% voted for the EU in the EU referendum. There are reports that Moldovan authorities have stopped the traffic at one border crossing with Transnistria because of a bomb threat. Diaspora turnout is massive with over 200,000 votes cast and is expected to reach an all time high. Worryingly, the largest diaspora turnout so far has been in Moscow where two polling stations have seen over 5,000 votes cast.

Return to top⤴️

Germany's new leftist populist party, the BSW, is demanding an end to military aid for Ukraine

🎦 17:55-18:53⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss Russian interference in German Politics. The new leftist party, the BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht (who used to be a member of Die Linke), wants Germany to stop arming Ukraine. The BSW aim to exact a high price from the other political parties in return for their support in governing three eastern states. According to Reuters, they are demanding a halt to military aid to Ukraine. This could erode the pro-Ukraine consensus in Germany and risk further tensions in Olaf Scholz's coalition government. Jonathan notes the BSW is pro-Russia and is against sending military aid to Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

China likely knew about North Korea's decision to send troops to Ukraine

🎦 18:53-20:27⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss China's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite claims from Beijing that they were unaware of North Korea's troop movements, some observers think they are benefitting. China has denied any knowledge of Russia's deepening ties with North Korea. The US has called on China to dissuade North Korea from becoming actively involved in the war. Observers are sceptical about China's claims as it is unlikely that a deal to deploy troops could have gone ahead without their knowledge. North Korea is totally dependent on China. China is also supplying billions of dollars worth of dual-use goods to Russia which are helping Russia to sustain it's war effort. Mathieu Blegue, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, has told the Kyiv Independent that he thinks China's claims are a "masquerade" and that it is unlikely that China was unaware of North Korea's intentions. Jonathan would like to have gone into more detail about China's involvement but he has to stop recording as he has family commitments. He apologises but jokes "sorry, not sorry".

Return to top⤴️

Potential Russian credit crunch imminent as bond yields rise

🎦 20:27-20:59⏩
Jonathan discusses the possibility of an imminent credit crunch in Russia. There has been a lot of talk recently about the problems the Russian economy is facing. Bond yields for Russian developers have started to fall with the biggest falls seen in Samolot, Brusnika and Strana Development. These have fallen by 4-5% over the last week with yields rising to 34-37%. Jonathan thinks this could lead to serious problems for the Russian economy.

Return to top⤴️

EU's Thierry Breton warns Europe to prepare for changes in US support for Ukraine

🎦 20:59-22:11⏩
Jonathan reports on comments by EU Internal Market Commissioner, Thierry Breton, who has warned Europe to prepare for an evolution in American support for Ukraine. He thinks there will be a change in support whoever wins the upcoming US Presidential election, no support from Donald Trump or a complete change of support from Kamala Harris. He also says that he has noticed a weariness in public opinion across Europe about continued support for Ukraine. Jonathan agrees with this and says this is exactly what Putin was hoping for as he was playing the long game. Breton calls for determination from all the EU's institutions to maintain support for Ukraine. Jonathan thinks this is a good statement and that the EU has been firm in its support for Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Dmitry Medvedev threatens Donald Trump

🎦 22:11-23:15⏩
Jonathan reports on comments made by Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council who has threatened Donald Trump by implying that he could be assassinated if he tries to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. Medvedev is dismissive of Trump's claims that he can bring peace to Ukraine. Jonathan mentions that Russia has consistently ruled out peace talks unless their maximalist demands are met. He is critical of JD Vance, the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee, who has said both sides want peace when Russia has repeatedly said it does not.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Disinformation Campaign using fake news videos

🎦 23:15-26:36⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian disinformation campaign that has been using over 300 fake videos impersonating news outlets from over 50 countries to sow division in the west and spread pro-Kremlin propaganda. The BBC has reported on this.

• The operation appears to have been stepped up ahead of the US Presidential Election.
• They have been impersonating well known news outlets using similar presentation styles, fonts, logos and graphics.
• The videos are very realistic, making it hard to distinguish from real news outlets.
• The disinformation campaign has been running for over two years.
• It started by trying to undermine western support for Ukraine.
• Recently it has been focusing on the US Presidential Election by spreading false claims about Kamala Harris, saying that the vote will be rigged and depicting the US as being on the brink of collapse.
• A Finnish analytics company, Check First, has investigated the network and has confirmed that the videos are being produced in Russia although they do not know who is running the operation.
• The accounts behind the fake videos are actively seeking out journalists to fact check the content, overwhelming them with bogus claims.
• 71,000 emails were sent to 245 addresses belonging to researchers, media outlets and fact checkers between January and September this year.

Jonathan questions what is being done in response to the disinformation campaign, criticising the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee for dismissing the campaign as something that Russia just does. He praises the BBC for exposing the network and highlights work done by disinformation expert Thomas Ridd.

Return to top⤴️

Discussion about Freedom of Speech and disinformation

🎦 26:36-33:57⏩
Jonathan discusses freedom of speech and how it relates to disinformation. He quotes Thomas Ridd, who says that foreign influence operations on X (Twitter) have been increasing as expected. He has made some high-level observations:

• The Russian tradecraft is sloppy but not always.
• The US Intelligence Community has reacted quickly by exposing content without amplifying it.
• It would be better if there was one central reference point for these announcements.
• Foreign influencers appear to prefer X (Twitter) as it is the easiest platform to use to seed and amplify disinformation.
• They are using this platform because of X's (Twitter's) weak threat intelligence team, it's libertarian approach and it's small changes which have made it an ideal "active measures proving ground".

Jonathan talks about some of the arguments about freedom of speech that he sees in his comments, in particular the "free speech absolutists". He uses the example of a schoolchild swearing at a teacher, saying that there should be consequences for doing this. Jonathan says we all have double standards when it comes to freedom of speech. There needs to be a sensible sweet spot between no regulation and complete regulation. He uses the example of Elon Musk who claims to be a free speech absolutist but shuts down speech he doesn't agree with. He criticises Musk for amplifying Republican voices on the platform at a ratio of 2:1 compared with other political voices.

• Jonathan says that people need help to be able to identify disinformation from the truth.
• He criticises those who say we should just be clever enough to be able to identify disinformation.
• People are being manipulated by state actors.
• We protect ourselves in every other area of life, why not on the internet?
• Jonathan likens it to feeding a drug addict more drugs and saying "it's your choice"

Return to top⤴️

The role of the US Intelligence Community in countering disinformation

🎦 33:57-36:17⏩
Jonathan references two presentations he has done on freedom of speech, which discuss some philosophical issues surrounding freedom of speech. He mentions the "sorites paradox", the idea that where is the sweet spot for regulation will be different for everyone.

• Jonathan returns to discuss the role of the US Intelligence Community in countering disinformation.
• The Intelligence community faces tough choices about whether to expose foreign influence operations or not because by exposing them, they amplify them.
• They should only expose them when they get significant genuine amplification.
• Foreign interference campaigns will not stop after the US election.
• The main target audience is not the US voters, but the funders of the campaigns, trying to prove to them that they are effective.

Return to top⤴️

The EU's Response to the Ukraine War

🎦 36:17-47:10⏩
Jonathan picks up on a comment left by a viewer "Brass Roots 2024" about the EU's response to the Ukraine war. "Brass Roots 2024" thinks that Jonathan is happy that the UK has left the EU because of the EU's "pathetic" response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Jonathan corrects the viewer by stating that he voted Remain in the 2016 referendum and gave two public debates about Brexit. He was, and remains a staunch Remainer and has learned a lot about the complexities of Brexit. Jonathan takes issue with the viewer's assertion that the EU's response has been pathetic.

• He cites the Ukraine Support Tracker which shows that the EU has been a major supporter of Ukraine.
• The EU has been a "central planning node for assistance to Ukraine" and has been instrumental in encouraging other European nations to provide support.
• Jonathan thinks that many countries would not have provided the level of support they have if it had not been for the EU.
• He cites Portugal as an example - most of Portugal's aid has come from EU funding.
• Jonathan says the EU's response has been "probably the strongest of any entity in the world", including the US, in terms of rhetoric and desire.
• The EU does not have the military stockpiles that the US does and has had to rely on financial aid.

Jonathan goes on to highlight the contradictions in the viewer's comment, saying that the viewer is simultaneously highlighting the weakness of the EU because of the actions of member states like Hungary and Austria (Orban and Fizzo) whilst also criticising the lack of sovereignty for member states. Jonathan thinks the viewer is just trying to justify their vote for Brexit. The EU has given a lot of money to Ukraine and it is the actions of Orban that are preventing the money getting to Ukraine.

• The viewer's comment is "empirically and politically incorrect"
• Jonathan would like the viewer to clarify their point.

Jonathan mentions the lack of coverage in the UK about the negative impacts of Brexit, highlighting a recent report from the Office for Budget Responsibility which stated: "_weak growth in imports and exports over the medium term partly reflect the continuing impact of Brexit, which we expect to reduce the overall trade intensity of the UK economy by 15 percent in the long term._"

• This means that UK trade will be £43bn lower than it otherwise would have been.
• Jonathan is angry about the lack of discussion about the economic impact of Brexit.
• No-one wants to talk about it because it is so divisive.
• There is no economic argument to be made for Brexit that will see it being an economic success.
• Britain is now a small player having to renegotiate all its trade deals.

The Kiel Institute has published a report saying that stopping military aid to Ukraine would cost Germany between 10 and 20 times more than continuing support. Germany could face a 1-2% annual loss in GDP compared with the 0.1% it is currently spending. Jonathan ends his rant by apologising but saying that "sometimes I need to get things off my back".

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

🎦 47:10-47:24⏩
Jonathan acknowledges that some viewers will disagree with his comments and get angry - Brexit has a tendency to do that. He thanks his viewers and says goodbye.

Return to top⤴️