Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"It would really help if they could take out the russian air bases that supply uh the um well yeah supply the front front line with close air support in terms of those guided glide bombs uh that that do so much damage and are continuing to do so much damage"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:42⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for the frontline update. He mentions that it is very late, but he needed to record the update due to other commitments. He notes that he has a busy Saturday ahead and will be out and about so output on the channel might be inconsistent. He does mention that he has a scheduled interview with Stephen Bendel, and he will get at least one news video out.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Front Line Map Key and ATP Distilled Update

🎦 00:42-01:23⏩

Jonathan reminds viewers about the colour key for the maps that he uses and encourages new viewers to familiarise themselves. Jonathan mentions the new ATP Distilled Website (created by Benny Pye) which will include a new ISW (Institute for the Study of War) AI summary tool. The tool will distil the ISW daily report into even more granular key points and anecdotes. Jonathan mentions that there is nothing of particular note from the ISW today other than a nugget about a Ukrainian platoon commander who described the Russian attacks in Krinky as "meat assaults" with seven or eight attempts per day. He noted a decrease in the size of Russian assault groups attributing this to high casualties and low morale among Russian personnel.

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North Eastern Front: Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna

🎦 01:23-07:04⏩

Jonathan reports that across the frontline Russia is gaining. There have been no Ukrainian gains in the last 24 hours, which is challenging for the Ukrainians. Russians are making small gains along the entire front line from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna and are squeezing westwards. He notes a small increase in control along the railway line south of Ivanovka, just around Kislivka, with Russian forces pushing to the west in the area (Deep State map and Andriy Perpetua confirm this). There is no change in Vovchansk, and heavy fighting continues. Jonathan comments on the level of destruction in Vovchansk, noting that (according to Andriy Perpetua) the town has been destroyed at a faster rate than Bakhmut, despite being smaller. He attributes this to the use of guided glide bombs, which weren't in use during the Bakhmut assault. Russian forces are trying hard to take the area around Mikivka and Nevskoterni and appear to have momentum. They are fighting in/around Mikivka and are looking to push south/west of Ploschanka towards Nevska. Jonathan highlights that Andrew Perpetua has the Russians pushing "fairly significantly" along a six-and-a-half-kilometer stretch of the front - a fairly wide and deep push. Deep State map has them even further forward in one area. Jonathan notes that this is a challenge for the Ukrainians, but once Russian forces reach the Zherebets River (with its many bluffs) it will become harder for them. This is because the Russians will need to get equipment across the river and then fight their way up a bluff that the Ukrainians will be defending from a position of strength with good sightlines. Jonathan reasons that losing territory to the Russians isn't the biggest issue - it's more about how difficult it is to get them out, once embedded. He refers to the lightning counter-offensives in the Kharkiv region that were possible because there weren't many fortifications or minefields and drones weren't as prevalent. 18 months on, this is no longer the case. He notes that, whilst the Russians may be taking huge losses grinding out these small gains, it is going to be tough for the Ukrainians to take this land back militarily. He suggests that politically might be their best chance.

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Svatove-Kreminna Front: Russian advance towards Siversk

🎦 07:04-11:53⏩

Jonathan highlights a "very large gain" by Russian forces in the Sperna area - moving west and north-west along the railway line towards Vyumka in the direction of Ivano-Darivka. Syriac maps shows Russian forces in control of Ivano-Darivka, but Jonathan sounds a note of caution as the source is a video of a Russian flag on a bombed-out house that has been dubiously cut and it is not clear from the footage if the troops are Ukrainian or Russian. It is possible that the flag was dropped by the drone that is filming. However, he notes that there is not a lot for the Ukrainians to hold onto, defensively speaking, in this area. Jonathan highlights a hill north of Ivano-Darivka that, according to Andrew Perpetua, is the highest point in the area and very important for the Ukrainians to hold on to. He explains that it gives the Ukrainians great sightlines over the whole area. Jonathan raises the concern about a possible domino effect if the Ukrainians lose control of the hill, similar to what happened in the Pobjeda and Novelaska areas. He describes how if Siversk falls (after the Serebryansky Forest) then the Russians would be at Slovyansk - a major Russian objective - and that would be a real challenge for the Ukrainians. He questions whether Russia would have the manpower and resources to take and hold so much territory. Jonathan points out that Russian forces were in control of this territory a couple of years ago before being pushed back. He finishes by saying that it will be interesting to see whether the Ukrainians can hold the hill and questions how well-defended/resourced the area is. He acknowledges that the area is probably mined.

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Bakhmut Front: Chasiv Yar, Turetsk, New York

🎦 11:53-15:47⏩

Jonathan reports that there have been no major changes around Chasiv Yar, but Russian forces continue to attack on three prongs:

• The Kalinivka area
• The canal micro district
• South on the T0504 through Ivanivske

He notes that the Russians have reached the canal according to Syriac maps and are taking land north of Bolonivka although other mappers do not concur with this assessment yet. Andrew Perpetua reports that the Russians are taking significant casualties in the area. Jonathan notes the two culverts on the canal where it goes underground and turns into a tunnel (one north by Kalinivka, the other to the south near the lower of the three prongs) that are difficult for the Russians to get equipment across because of the trees. However, the Ukrainians know where they would need to cross to get to Chasiv Yar and can target with indirect fire from artillery, mortars and drones, making it challenging for the Russians. Jonathan suggests that this is why there has been little movement since they reached the canal, and it may be more advantageous (in terms of return on investment) for them to focus on areas like the hill near Siversk. Jonathan reports consistent gains being made by the Russians in the Turetsk region according to Syriac maps, both in the north, through Druzhba along/north of the railway line, and to the south of the town, just to the west of Shumy. He also notes Syriac maps' assessment that Russian forces have taken control of a number of tailings heaps and the area around Zalizhnny, but other maps do not agree with this. He comments that Syriac Maps tends to give a more "charitable interpretation" in favour of the Russians, although this is not to say that they are incorrect, just that the evidence hasn't convinced the other mappers yet. Jonathan acknowledges that the Russians are definitely fighting in the area, and it will, at least, be a grey zone. He describes this as "looking tough" for the Ukrainians, who had launched a counter-attack in New York yesterday, pushing Russian forces back from the bridgehead. This whilst the Russians were trying to push further into the centre. Jonathan concludes that the Ukrainians probably realised that they needed to put up more of a fight in the area.

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Donetsk Front: Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, Mariinka

🎦 15:47-20:46⏩

Moving south, Jonathan explains that Russian forces have pushed past Avdiivka to the Pokrovsk region, where they are trying to push north. This is concerning because they are getting closer to interdicting an important road. However, there is no change for the mappers in the area today. He notes that the Russians have had success in taking Novooleksandrivka over the last week and are pushing north. In the area around Soledar, Zhelanivka and Pidhorodne, Syriac Maps has Russian forces in full control of Pidhorodne (Deep State has them in control of most of it). Andrew Perpetua (in his Geek and Erland livestream) agrees that the village is pretty much under Russian control. Jonathan observes that Russian forces are successfully grinding through the area. Jonathan goes on to report consistent Russian gains (according to Deep State, Andrew Perpetua and Syriac Maps) in the village of Novoselivske Druha (south of Lyman). Russian forces are encircling the town and may be close to achieving this operationally. He suggests that the Ukrainians may be trying to bleed the Russians as much as possible as they fall back to the main defensive line (shown as a blue line on the map). Jonathan clarifies that the blue lines that divide the map do not necessarily signify anything important, such as a defensive line or regional border - it's just the way that the mapping software breaks the map up. He confirms that, in this case, the blue line is probably the location of a Ukrainian defensive line and that it will be interesting to see how long it takes them to get there. Jonathan acknowledges that these defensive lines (with concrete fortifications) will be more effective and require fewer troops to defend than the current lines. However, this does mean that Ukraine is ceding more land, which will be more difficult to take back militarily and gives the Russians more leverage when it comes to any negotiations. He notes that there is a lot of activity (although no changes) all along the front line as Russian forces push in Krasnohorivka and will probably take the area at some point. It will depend on Russian mobilisation and troop deployments.

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Donetsk Front: Vuhledar

🎦 20:46-22:01⏩

Moving south to Mariinka, Jonathan reports no change for the mappers, although acknowledges that the fighting is tough going, particularly around Novomykolaivka. He notes that the Russians had an expensive time taking Novomykolaivka and appear to be experiencing similar in Vuhledar. The Russians, in an attempt to cut the road between Vuhledar and Kostyantynivka, have been "yoloing" (You Only Live Once) it down the road in a couple of BMPs - getting further than expected - before being destroyed. Jonathan concludes by observing that it will only be a matter of time before Russian forces take control of the road.

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Southern Front Update: Staromaiorske

🎦 22:01-22:57⏩

Jonathan reports heavy fighting around Staromaiorske where Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the town after prolonged shelling, indicating that it is now likely to be under Russian control. He notes interesting footage of a large Russian motorcycle assault in the area that he will share in a video tomorrow.

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Eastern Front Summary

🎦 22:57-24:46⏩

Jonathan sums up by saying that the rest of the front line is static but active, particularly in the east. He reiterates that July/August is the most difficult time for the Ukrainians as the Russians make their push. The Ukrainians need more of everything - air support, shells, mortars and boots on the ground. Taking out the Russian air bases in range of the front line that are causing so much damage with their guided glide bombs would be helpful. He wonders how long the Russians can keep up this level of intensity, questioning whether this is them throwing everything they have at the frontline in the hope of significant gains before the muddy season begins. Jonathan confirms that the withdrawal from Krinky is confirmed and that assaults continue in all directions.

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Wrap up

🎦 24:46-25:19⏩

Jonathan concludes by praising the ATP Distilled Website, noting that it's a great resource that he hopes will save him some time. He thanks viewers for their support.

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