Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, Krynky Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"The Krynky beachhead has served its purpose. Resupply through lake ice [has] made a dangerous mission untenable. Declare victory and reposition the troops during the 17th and the 19th January warm-up, when ice conditions will improve."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update, mentioning that it is 15th January 2024, and he will be doing a live stream soon. He acknowledges that he hasn't done his usual level of source preparation as there haven't been many significant developments on the frontline. Jonathan thanks JR for updating the map.
Return to top⤴️
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Frontline Overview
🎦 00:33-01:29⏩
Jonathan utilises a variety of sources, including pro-Russian sources and maps, to provide a comprehensive overview of the frontline. He notes that there haven't been changes in the northeastern sector despite reports of Russian troop buildup near Kupyansk. He mentions ISW (Institute for the Study of War) reports that suggest a possible Russian offensive in the east and south. He remains sceptical, questioning if Russia possesses the capacity for such an operation. Jonathan quickly reviews the Bakhmut and Avdiivka fronts, indicating no significant changes and praising the Ukrainian forces for holding the line.
Return to top⤴️
Marinka: Russian Advance
🎦 01:29-02:45⏩
Jonathan observes that Russian forces are making incremental but steady advances in Marinka. He points out that they have taken control of the area surrounding a lake and are pushing north towards Hurivקה through Provosivny. He highlights the pro-Russian perspective that minimal gains were made by the Russian army west of the church in Hurivקה.
Return to top⤴️
Novomokalivka, Velyka Novosylka, Robotyne Frontline
🎦 02:45-03:16⏩
Jonathan provides a quick update on other areas of the front. He notes that the situation around Novomokalivka is relatively unchanged, with Russian forces making limited gains north of the town. He also points out that the territory captured by Ukraine near Velyka Novosylka remains largely unchanged. Finally, he observes that Russian advances in Robotyne have stalled, with Ukrainian forces launching counter-attacks.
Return to top⤴️
Krynky: A Deep Dive and Analysis
🎦 03:16-20:16⏩
Jonathan focuses on Krynky, where significant changes are evident. He notes that Surat Maps suggests a concerning situation for Ukrainian forces, who are reportedly facing heavy losses while repelling Russian advances. Jonathan highlights the pro-Russian narrative that emphasizes Ukrainian casualties and the difficulty of reinforcing their position on the right bank of the Dnipro River. He contrasts this with the pro-Ukrainian view that a small Ukrainian contingent is effectively pinning down a larger Russian force. He then presents analysis from Emil Kostelhamy, who outlines the history of the Ukrainian bridgehead near Antonivsky Bridge and subsequent operations in the Dnipro River delta. Jonathan highlights the challenges of maintaining supply lines to Krynky, pointing out the vulnerability of both the main Dnipro River and the Konka River to Russian attacks. He underscores the crucial role of drone warfare and electronic warfare in the area. Jonathan uses satellite imagery analysis from Kostelhamy to illustrate the extent of destruction in Krynky, particularly in residential areas and industrial zones. He emphasizes the effectiveness of Ukrainian resistance despite the challenges they face, noting that Russian counterattacks have been met with limited success. Jonathan discusses the difficulties of launching a large-scale mechanized offensive in Krynky due to the terrain and the risk of Russian artillery and air attacks. He highlights the limitations of using amphibious vehicles and the need for air superiority, which Ukraine currently lacks. He then considers whether maintaining a presence in Krynky is strategically viable for Ukraine, weighing the benefits of tying down Russian forces against the ongoing casualties and logistical challenges. Jonathan raises the question of whether similar damage could be inflicted on Russian forces without the need for a costly bridgehead. He acknowledges the potential political motivations for Ukraine to maintain a presence in Krynky, even if it comes at a high cost. He also examines the Russian perspective, suggesting that their current strategy of attrition may be effective despite their lack of decisive action. Jonathan concludes by highlighting the significance of ice formation on the Konka River, which will further hinder Ukrainian logistics. He suggests that the current situation might force Ukraine to reconsider its position in Krynky, particularly if resupply becomes untenable due to the freezing conditions. He cites David Helms's analysis of river ice conditions, emphasizing the rapid formation of ice on both the Dnipro and Konka Rivers. Jonathan presents additional evidence from pstar11, showing a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian boat attempting to resupply Krynky. This footage underscores the dangers posed by the ice and the vulnerability of Ukrainian supply lines. He ends the analysis with his personal opinion, advising the Ukrainian armed forces to withdraw from the Krynky bridgehead due to the untenable resupply situation. He recommends repositioning troops during the anticipated warming period on January 17-19, when ice conditions are expected to improve.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 20:16-20:31⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his audience for watching, hoping they found the deep dive into the Krynky situation informative. He invites viewers to join his upcoming livestream, which he will be hosting with Jonathan from the YouTube channel Tocini.
Return to top⤴️
