Ukraine Conflict: 5-Day Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"A kind of burning of a $100 bill on TikTok to excite underage cerebellums."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:34⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update for 18th February 2025, covering the past five days of the conflict. He anticipates noteworthy developments and potential Russian territorial gains, but acknowledges the recent slowdown in their advance, a significant shift from the previous six months.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kursk Counteroffensives and Incursions
🎦 00:35-03:49⏩
Jonathan highlights intense fighting in the Kursk sector, with Ukrainian forces conducting counterattacks and applying pressure on North Korean units, forcing their withdrawal. Ukrainian successes are reported in Malaya, Lachnia, Prohresky, and Maryevka. The Ukrainians regain lost ground south of Cheskoslovakia near Phanasivka. However, Syriac Maps indicates a Russian pushback in Makhanovka. Unconfirmed reports from 'Grace Girl' suggest a new Ukrainian incursion across the Kursk border at Obukivka, reminiscent of a previous, unsuccessful attempt to reach Glushkovo, criticized by Andrew Perpetua. Jonathan observes relative stability in the Vovchansk and Lipsy areas.
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Institute for the Study of War Report Summary
🎦 03:49-05:31⏩
Jonathan delves into anecdotal insights from the Institute for the Study of War's daily report, highlighting Russian tactical adaptations. These include the use of light vehicles for troop transport in Povchansk, potentially driven by equipment shortages or tactical advantages. Additionally, Russian forces near Chesif Yar are employing similar tactics, raising questions about their motivations. Jonathan notes the deployment of a new satellite-controlled Kukushka drone with significant range and payload capacity, highlighting Russia's ongoing technological adaptation. Concerns are raised regarding the Donetsk People’s Republic’s use of the DOSAAF organization to train Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories for Russian military service, echoing Soviet-era tactics and potentially forcing them to attack fellow Ukrainians.
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Russian Advance West of Oskil River
🎦 05:32-06:04⏩
Shifting to the northeastern front line, Jonathan observes substantial Russian advances west of the Oskil River, expressing concern over Ukraine's response to these territorial gains. He questions whether Ukraine will attempt to halt or hinder the Russian advance in this sector. While acknowledging the strategic significance of the area, Jonathan emphasizes the scale of the Russian gains.
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Developments near Petropavlovka
🎦 06:05-07:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the area near Vilshana and Petropavlovka, pointing out changes in settlement names and highlighting conflicting information from various sources. Greyskull, a reliable source, reports Ukrainian advances north of Petropavlovka, while Syriac Maps depicts the area under Russian control. This discrepancy highlights the fluidity of the situation and the challenges of obtaining accurate information.
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Northeastern Frontline: Small Gains and Ukrainian Successes
🎦 07:06-07:35⏩
Jonathan analyzes the front line between Svatove and Kreminna, noting minor Russian gains in Makivka and Yampolivka, while highlighting the static situation on the Sverskyi Donets front line. Ukrainian successes are reported in Chasiv Yar.
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Chasiv Yar - Stupochky Area: Russian Advance and Ukrainian Analysis
🎦 07:36-11:05⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over Russian advances in the Stupochky area, suggesting a strategic shift towards prioritizing Kostyantynivka over Chasiv Yar. He shares an update from Zhenya, a trusted source in Ukraine, who provides insights from a military analyst. This analysis suggests that, frustrated with the lack of progress in the Prokrosk direction, Russian forces are probing new avenues of attack towards Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka. Despite heavy losses, Russian troops are making incremental gains, but at a significant cost. This, however, is seen as a strategic win for Ukraine, as it depletes Russian resources and allows them to anticipate and counter Russian maneuvers. The analyst remains optimistic, believing that Ukraine is effectively countering Russian offensives and preventing them from gaining a strategic advantage. They use colorful language, comparing the Russian efforts to a futile display of bravado. They suggest that the redeployment of Russian troops to the Kramatorsk direction, while seemingly problematic, might actually benefit Ukraine by dispersing enemy forces and relieving pressure on other areas, such as Prokrosk. Jonathan finds this analysis insightful and indicative of the evolving nature of the conflict. He emphasizes the analyst's belief that Ukraine is effectively managing the situation despite Russian attempts to achieve a breakthrough.
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Turetsk and Novoselivske: Conflicting Reports and Ukrainian Counterattacks
🎦 11:05-12:11⏩
Jonathan observes Russian gains south of the T0504 highway, but also notes Ukrainian pushbacks in Turetsk, based on information from Andrew Perpetua. However, he points out discrepancies between Perpetua’s and Syriac Maps' updates regarding the location of these counterattacks. Greyskull reports successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Novoselivske near Turetsk, inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops. Notably, Syriac Maps portrays Russian gains in Novoselivske, while Greyskull indicates Ukrainian control with the Russian line pushed further south. Jonathan concludes that the situation is fluid and information remains contradictory.
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Prokrosk and Kotlyna: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Success Claims
🎦 12:11-14:14⏩
Jonathan acknowledges Russian advances towards the T0504 highway near Prokrosk, potentially posing a challenge for Ukrainian forces. He then transitions to the Pischany and Kotlyna areas, noting significant changes in Syriac Maps' depiction of the front line, particularly in Kotlyna. While Russia seems to have regained some territory in Pischany, they have lost ground along the railway line in Kotlyna. Greyskull, citing Ukrainian frontline channels, reports Ukrainian successes in Pischany, describing demoralized and panicked Russian troops facing fierce resistance. The report celebrates Ukrainian successes, emphasizing their impact on Russian morale while acknowledging the need for further information verification. Jonathan acknowledges the abundance of claims suggesting Ukrainian advances in these areas, despite Syriac Maps indicating a minor Russian advance in Udachny.
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Prokrosk: Analysis of Russian Strategy and Challenges
🎦 14:14-17:29⏩
Jonathan delves into a detailed analysis of the Russian strategy targeting Prokrosk. He reveals that the capture of Prokrosk has been a long-standing objective for Russian generals, with plans in place for over a year. The initial intention was to encircle the city, but this required fulfilling two conditions: cutting off the Kurakhove salient and establishing a secure Line of Battle Stability (LBS) with flanks. This would entail cutting off the southern area of Prokrosk and flanking the city. However, according to the analyst, the necessary flanking maneuvers haven't materialized. They argue that despite consistent territorial gains, Russia's execution has been flawed, citing a lack of strategic coherence and poor decision-making. Furthermore, encircling Prokrosk would necessitate a force of at least 150,000 troops, but current estimates suggest only slightly over 100,000 are present in the entire Prokrosk-Kurakhove direction. Even if all troops were redeployed from the Kurakhove salient, they would still be outnumbered. The analyst points out the lack of essential elements for a successful encirclement: stable flanks, secure LBS, and the inability to cut off the Karakova direction. Moreover, they highlight the depletion of the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, forcing its withdrawal and replacement with the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, a unit initially intended for urban combat in Prokrosk. The analyst suggests that the Russian command’s decision to transfer the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA), consisting of the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions (MSD), to bypass Kostyantynivka from the west, further disperses their forces. They are now positioned 12 kilometers from the Toretsk agglomeration and over 22 kilometers from Kramatorsk, making a swift breakthrough unlikely. Jonathan concludes that despite Russian efforts, they are far from capturing Prokrosk. He emphasizes the analyst's view that the redeployment of troops to Kostyantynivka might benefit Ukraine by diverting Russian resources and hindering their ability to concentrate forces on Prokrosk.
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South of Prokrosk and the Ugledar Pocket
🎦 17:29-18:23⏩
Moving south of Prokrosk, Jonathan observes further Russian gains near the settlement of Serebryanka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. He expresses concern about the large-scale Russian successes in the Vuhledar area, suggesting Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing as Russia tightens its grip. Jonathan hopes that no Ukrainian troops are trapped in that sector.
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Zaporizhzhia Frontline: Russian Gains and Ukrainian Counterpressure
🎦 18:24-19:23⏩
Jonathan reports consistent Russian gains west of Velyka Novosilka, acknowledging the heavy losses sustained by both sides. He notes potential Ukrainian counterattacks or remapping efforts south of Novodanilivka along the Zaporizhzhia frontline, towards the reservoir and the Kamyanske area, where Ukrainian forces have recently pushed back Russian troops. Jonathan concludes that while these developments are not highly significant, they suggest continued Ukrainian pressure on Russian positions.
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Frontline Dynamics and Concluding Remarks
🎦 19:24-20:47⏩
Jonathan reflects on the dynamic nature of the frontline, with evolving maps and shifting positions. He observes that despite positive reports from some Ukrainian sources, Russian forces persist in their advance. Jonathan ponders the sustainability of the Russian offensive and its long-term impact on their military capabilities. While acknowledging the vast size of the Russian armed forces, bolstered by extensive recruitment efforts, including from prisons, Jonathan questions the quality and effectiveness of these new additions. He emphasizes that the frontline comprises a mix of experienced and poorly trained, equipped, and often injured troops, highlighting the complex reality of the conflict. Jonathan concludes by commending Ukraine's resilience in containing the Russian offensive without resorting to full mobilization. He anticipates an intriguing couple of weeks ahead as the situation unfolds.
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Wrap up
🎦 20:48-20:52⏩
Jonathan thanks his audience for watching, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He bids farewell and promises to return soon with further updates.
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