Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:52⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He notes that this video is a day late and that this can be problematic as it throws him off. He needs to keep on top of the frontline updates so that his map data is up to date. He'd rather work late than have to play catch up!

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Belgorod Oblast - Ukrainian incursion into Russia

🎦 00:52-03:11⏩

Jonathan reports news of an attack on the Russian village of Terebrino in Belgorod Oblast. Ukrainian forces have confirmed the incursion. The "Freedom of Russia" legion, a group of Russian volunteers fighting for Ukraine, claimed responsibility for the attack and posted on Telegram that they had destroyed a platoon stronghold. The group also claims to have mined an area of Russian territory near the village, posting "go ahead and update your minefield map". Jonathan jokes that this is the most successful area of the frontline for the Ukrainians as, referring to his map, all other activity is Russian gains.

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Kupyansk - Svitlodarsk Bulge - Russian advances

🎦 03:11-04:29⏩

Jonathan reports small Russian gains in the Svitlodarsk Bulge area near Kupyansk in the Northeastern sector. The Russians have made gains in the Sinkivka area according to Syriac maps, becoming entrenched in the Northern outskirts, but attempts to take the town were repelled by the Ukrainians. Jonathan notes that there have been conflicting reports about the status of Sinkivka, and that whilst there have been claims that it had fallen to Russian forces, it has been under solid Ukrainian control. However, he notes that the Russians are advancing in the area, and there have been many reports (and video evidence) of heavy Russian losses in the area.

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Bakhmut - Kramova - Russian advances

🎦 04:29-05:20⏩

Jonathan reports Russian gains in the Kramova area, reporting that the dirt track appears to be under Russian control, but notes Syriac maps and Deepstate map differ slightly. Further South, Syriac maps claim that the Russians have taken control of some parts of the Popivskaya area, West of the O0506 highway. Global War Monitor agrees, stating that it is likely that the Russians have captured the village of Kramova and have advanced to the O0506 road. Jonathan notes that Global War Monitor is a little behind on this and that the Syriac map shows further gains.

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Bakhmut - Klishchiivka - Russian advances

🎦 05:20-07:14⏩

Jonathan notes more Russian gains South of Bakhmut. He received information from a Ukrainian soldier fighting on this part of the frontline on his live feed yesterday that the Russians had taken the railway near Klishchiivka. He is unsure of the exact location, and cannot verify the claim, but suspects it is either the section reported by Syriac maps or a little further south. Further south, the Russians have made gains in the Kurdyumivka area, which has been quiet for some time, retaking ground West of the canal according to footage. Syriac Maps claims that the Russians have taken control of the whole area where the canal goes underground near Kurdyumivka, including the area of land where it is possible to cross. Jonathan refers to this as a "bridge" but corrects himself.

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Avdiivka - Russian advances

🎦 07:14-11:26⏩

Jonathan reports significant Russian gains around Avdiivka, especially in the south. Deepstate map shows large areas of gains for the Russians in the Opytne area, corroborated to some degree by Syriac maps, which shows smaller gains. There have been no reported changes to the North around Stepova, Keramik and Krutobalka. "Special Kherson Cat" on Telegram reports another Russian attack on the Avdiivka front. Deepstate map refers to this as "today's attack", noting that the Russians are attacking again in the area of Avdiivka and Keramik, North of Avdiivka, the area where there have been many Russian equipment losses. Around 15 Armoured Fighting Vehicles with infantry advanced through Krasnohorivka to the South of Keramik, dropped the infantry off and then returned North. Ukrainian forces destroyed more than half of the vehicles. The infantry are taking cover in the tree lines, and their destruction continues. Jonathan notes that "Special Kherson Cat" expects more video footage of destroyed Russian equipment in the coming days. "Special Kherson Cat" notes that Russian tactics haven't changed - regular attacks in the hope of a quick breakthrough. Jonathan talks about the important role of drones and UAVs in this part of the conflict, and notes how they reduce the possibility of any surprises. He speculates that the high volume of Russian equipment losses is forcing the Russians to send large numbers of vehicles in the hope that some will get through - a rinse and repeat tactic that is slowly gaining ground. No reports on Telegram report no confirmed Russian advances in the Stepova area, where the Russians are attacking on foot (without mechanised support) in an attempt to avoid drone attacks, particularly at night.

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Pervomaiske - Russian advances

🎦 11:26-12:00⏩

Jonathan reports on the situation in Pervomaiske, where the Russians have made small advances to the east, according to Syriac Maps, which is corroborated by the Deepstate map.

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Novomokalivka - Russian advances

🎦 12:00-12:59⏩

Jonathan reports significant Russian gains South of Novomikolaivka. Syriac maps shows smaller gains for the Russians but Andrew Perpetua's map shows large gains - much larger than Syriac maps. Jonathan finds this very worrying as he believes it is important that the Ukrainians hold Novomokalivka.

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Robotyne area - Russian advances

🎦 12:59-14:34⏩

Jonathan reports on the situation in the Robotyne area. Andrew Perpetua's map show large Russian gains North of Robotyne, pushing back Ukrainian forces. Jonathan comments that the rendering of Andrew Perpetua's map makes it difficult to see the lines clearly - a recurring issue. Measuring the distance of the gains, Jonathan notes that they amount to 3.5- 4km North to South. Jonathan speculates that he can't see Ukraine putting too much effort into holding the area they took in their counteroffensive in this area, and does not believe that it is strategically important, unlike Novomikalivka and Avdiivka.

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Klishchiivka - Russian advances

🎦 14:34-15:25⏩

Jonathan reports what he describes as "worrying" Russian gains around Klishchiivka, where Ukrainian forces have been pushed back considerably into the centre of the village, a gain of around 1.5km, if accurate. Jonathan comments that, whilst this is a concern, the accuracy of Syriac maps is not known. Jonathan notes that today (Sunday) was a busy day, and he has not had much time to do research, apologising that this frontline update is not as detailed as usual. He will resume normal service tomorrow.

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Wrap up

🎦 15:25-15:39⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and for their support.

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"It's a late night, I need to go to bed but if i don't do these frontline updates then i get a day out and it it kind of messes around with what i know has happened on the frontline and where the mapping is two days to of updates to each individual source map or to my map from the sources just can confuse matters so it is useful for me to do these if not just if only for me and not for you guys anyway whatever where should we start..."