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Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News

News🔷Hits and Losses🔷Geopolitics🔷Military Aid Monday, 11th September 2023, 11:26
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"Would you have wanted to do peace with ISIS or with Al-Qaeda? No. Then how come?"

Hello Team!

Jonathan reflects on the 9/11 anniversary and compares the scale of destruction and loss of life in Ukraine to that tragic event. He questions why some American politicians who were enraged by 9/11 do not have the same sense of indignation about what is happening in Ukraine.

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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA

  1. These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
  2. These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
  3. All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
  4. Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
  5. Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
  6. Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
  7. Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
  8. All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
  9. Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.

Front Line Update

  • Ukraine has regained control of the Boyko towns (two gas drilling rigs) in the Black Sea between Snake Island and Cape Tarkhankut. A video from Fakty ICTV shows Ukrainian operations to retake Snake Island and the towers.
  • Russians attempted counter-attacks north of Vuhledar to stop Ukrainian flank attacks but have temporarily been stopped. Russians moved troops from Staromayorske front to Vuhledar which allowed Ukrainians to advance towards Novodonetsk.
  • Kenneth Grag, a Finnish fighter in Ukraine, believes the war will not last long based on analysis of Russian resources. He compares it to what happened in Irpin.
  • Jonathan feels Ukraine is slowly gaining advantage across all theaters of war through attrition of Russian forces, even if major front line successes are not seen.


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Other Front Line Updates

  • Ukrainians have gained territory in Spirne and Derybyanka.
  • Claims of gains by both sides around Vuhledar and Novoprokopivka.
  • Northern part of Opytne is confirmed under Ukrainian control by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar. Some Russian sources claim all of Opytne has been captured by Ukraine and fighting is near Donetsk airport.
  • Ukrainians have entered Andriivka south of Bakhmut.
  • Russians released a video showing old T-55 and T-62 tanks being reactivated, which Jonathan feels is poor PR as it shows their desperation.


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Military Aid

  • Ukraine expects to fly F-16s in combat by winter (likely end of February). Training of pilots who already speak English will begin soon in the US. Finding and training maintenance crews who also need to speak English will be challenging.
  • US is moving closer to resolution on supplying Ukraine with ATACMS long-range missiles according to officials and Zelensky.
  • Germany's Rheinmetall will provide another 40 Marder IFVs to Ukraine.
  • Ukraine and Sweden agreed on joint production of CV90 IFVs with a target of 1000 for the Ukrainian army.
  • Ukrainian marines are training on Finnish-supplied XA-180 amphibious APCs.


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Russia Military Industry

Russia's Uralvagonzavod will resume building T-80 tanks from scratch according to the CEO. Jonathan is skeptical they have the capacity and skilled workforce to do this given sanctions.

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Geopolitics

  • Russia wants to exchange American journalist Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan for Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov imprisoned in Germany. Jonathan thinks this would be a good deal for the Americans.
  • Romania found wreckage of another Russian drone on its territory near the Danube River ports.
  • US and Romanian troops started military exercises in Moldova until Sept 22nd.
  • Israeli intelligence says they foiled Iran's intentions to provide Russia with short and long-range missiles in addition to drones. Israel is acting in its own self-interest regarding Iran's involvement in Ukraine.
  • Hungary intends to switch the Paks nuclear power plant from using Russian fuel to French to reduce energy dependence on Russia. Jonathan sees this as a major move out of the Russian sphere of influence.
  • Armenia sent the Rome Statute to its parliament for ratification to join the ICC. This means Putin could be arrested if he visits. It's another sign of Caucasus states moving away from Russia.
  • German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock made an unannounced visit to Kyiv, her 4th since the war began.
  • Brazilian President Lula da Silva said the judiciary, not him, will decide if Putin can attend the 2024 G20 summit in Brazil without being arrested, after facing criticism for earlier comments. Jonathan sees this as "realpolitik" to avoid the consequences of the decision either way.
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un is reportedly traveling to Russia to meet Putin on Sept 13, likely to discuss providing munitions to Russia.


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Wrap Up

Jonathan apologizes for the longer than usual update and thanks viewers for their support. He will now research for his next front line update video.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

What specific part of Opytne is confirmed captured by Ukraine? The entire village or just the northern part? What is the significance of the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary and why does switching from Russian to French fuel reduce energy dependence on Russia?

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Extract video title, date and part from the YouTube title Identify main topics discussed in order and summarize each one Look for key quotes, insights or opinions from Jonathan to include Mention any specific sources, people or places credited Note anything unclear that needs clarification Review summary to ensure all key points are covered and it flows logically

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ATP-AI-Bot

Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos