Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The unfolding catastrophe for Russia's bleak future is undeniable and obvious. It will have profound implications in the probability of the survival of the Russian Federation as a state, a state which must have low energy prices or energy in general available in abundance in order to exist."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update and acknowledges the D-Day commemorations happening in France. He mentions he was invited to attend by a viewer (Del) who lives nearby and thanks him for the offer, but due to his mobility issues, he is unable to make it. He expresses disappointment at missing the event, particularly the planned Spitfire flyby, which has since been cancelled due to a recent crash.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report: Russian Losses (04 June 2024)
🎦 02:18-04:14⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, pointing out that Russian losses remain significant. He observes that while tank losses appear lower, this could indicate stockpiling for future offensives, as Russia likely lacks the capacity to simultaneously replenish reserves and maintain a consistent attack tempo. He also speculates that the rise in "special equipment" losses could be linked to the ongoing construction of fortifications by both sides, particularly excavators.
Return to top⤴️
Oryx Report: Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Losses (04 June 2024)
🎦 04:14-06:21⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest data from Oryx (maintained by Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans), highlighting the ongoing trend of heavy Russian equipment losses, but noting a higher than usual number of Ukrainian losses, with the caveat that the "purple" category for unknown losses makes precise ratios difficult to determine. He notes the loss of Ukrainian equipment, including BMPs, APCs, and MRAPS as significant. Jonathan also observes the first instance of two Ukrainian "Martyr" drones lost in a single day, according to Oryx, and the continued destruction of Russian Lancet loitering munitions.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Military Forcibly Deploys Soldiers Refusing to Fight in Ukraine
🎦 08:09-15:24⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from various outlets, including Euromaidan Press, about the Russian military forcibly deploying soldiers who previously refused to fight in Ukraine. He cites examples of these "refuse-nicks" being detained in poor conditions and denied proper legal proceedings before being sent to the front lines. Jonathan connects this development to his earlier discussion of declining Russian morale, dwindling manpower, and potential war crimes. He emphasises the distinction between "conscientious objectors" who oppose war on moral grounds and are protected under international law, and "draft dodgers" whose motivations are primarily self-preservation. He argues that the brutal treatment of Russian soldiers, including potential war crimes and the use of barrier troops, could strengthen the case for granting refugee status to those who refuse to fight.
Return to top⤴️
Another Failed Russian Attack in Novomokrivka, Donetsk
🎦 15:24-16:28⏩
Jonathan reports on another unsuccessful Russian attack, this time in Novomokrivka, in the Donetsk region. He highlights the use of layered defenses by Ukrainian forces, including anti-tank mines, artillery, ATGMs, and FPV drones, which he suggests, makes offensive operations increasingly difficult for Russian forces.
Return to top⤴️
US Confirms Permission Granted to Ukraine to Target Russian Aircraft
🎦 16:28-18:41⏩
Jonathan discusses John Kirby's statement confirming that the US has, since the start of the war, authorized Ukraine to target Russian aircraft, even those operating within Russian airspace. He notes the potential contradiction with earlier reports suggesting US and German disapproval of Ukrainian strikes against targets in Bryansk Oblast and the need for further clarification on the parameters of this authorization, particularly the meaning of "impending threat".
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Energy Infrastructure in Belgorod, Russia
🎦 18:46-19:28⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian energy infrastructure in Belgorod. He notes that these attacks, utilizing Ukrainian-made drones rather than Western-supplied weapons, allow Ukraine to pressure Russian logistics and supply lines without risking escalation or exceeding limitations imposed by Western partners.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Air Defences Intercept 22 out of 27 "Shahed" Drones (04 June 2024)
🎦 19:28-19:55⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a significant number of Iranian-made "Shahed" drones launched by Russia, highlighting the effectiveness of these systems but acknowledging that some drones still managed to evade interception.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine's Cross-Border Strikes and the Impact on Western Military Aid
🎦 19:55-24:58⏩
Jonathan examines the implications of Ukraine's cross-border strikes into Russia, arguing that the lack of significant Russian escalation could encourage the West to reconsider its hesitancy in providing more advanced weaponry. He expresses frustration that permission for such strikes was not granted earlier, highlighting the prolonged suffering endured by residents of Kharkiv under constant bombardment by Russian S-300 missiles, which could have been mitigated sooner. He contrasts the restrained Russian response with the West's repeated delays in supplying crucial weapons systems, arguing that this hesitancy has been counterproductive and that a more proactive approach might yield better outcomes.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian POW Returns from Russian Captivity
🎦 24:58-27:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the case of Roman Horylyuk, a Ukrainian civilian and power plant worker who endured two years of Russian captivity, showing images of his emaciated condition upon release. Jonathan expresses his disgust at the treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) by the Russians, contrasting this with the humane treatment generally afforded to Russian POWs by Ukrainians. He also criticizes those who support both former President Trump and Ukraine, questioning their judgment and highlighting the contradiction in their views. He argues that such individuals often downplay the significance of the situation in Ukraine, failing to comprehend the broader implications of the conflict.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Troop Movements Suggest Imminent Offensive
🎦 27:18-28:33⏩
Jonathan cites reports from 'Tatarigami' about significant movements of Russian military equipment and personnel, suggesting preparations for a major offensive. He notes the lack of specifics regarding location and expresses frustration at the limited information available. Jonathan speculates that both Ukrainian intelligence and the "Frontline Intelligence" group are likely aware of these movements and preparing accordingly.
Return to top⤴️
Reports of Renewed Russian Offensive in Urazhane, Southern Front
🎦 28:33-29:27⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of a renewed Russian offensive in Urazhane, in the southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, an area that has witnessed heavy fighting in recent weeks. He notes the small number of vehicles involved in this particular attack, speculating that it might indicate a more localised assault rather than a larger-scale offensive.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Propaganda and the Disconnect From Reality
🎦 29:27-31:19⏩
Jonathan examines Russian propaganda, citing examples from pro-Russian sources that attempt to downplay losses and present a distorted view of the war's progress. He argues that this reliance on misinformation creates a dangerous disconnect from reality, potentially leading to poor decision-making by Russian leadership. He suggests that while such propaganda might create the illusion of success in the short term, eventually, reality will assert itself, leading to a painful reckoning for Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Gazprom: Company Report Predicts Long-Term Economic Damage from Ukraine War
🎦 31:19-35:24⏩
Jonathan discusses a report commissioned by Gazprom that suggests the company may not recover from the loss of export revenue caused by the war for over a decade. He highlights the company's reliance on the Chinese market, which offers significantly lower prices for gas compared to European customers. He argues that the war has exposed the fragility of the Russian economy, particularly its dependence on energy exports and vulnerability to Western sanctions. He cites the company's first annual loss in decades and the increasing burden placed on Russian consumers through higher energy prices as evidence of this decline. Jonathan concludes that Gazprom's struggles are indicative of the wider economic challenges facing Russia, which could have serious implications for the country's long-term stability.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Soldier Returns to Training Despite Losing Leg
🎦 35:24-36:19⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian soldier, who, despite losing a leg in combat, has returned to training. He commends the soldier's courage and determination, highlighting the resilience and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people. He jokes that the soldier appears more mobile than him.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Citizens Lose Billions to Phone Scammers, Ukraine Blamed
🎦 36:19-41:41⏩
Jonathan reports on claims that Russian citizens have lost billions of dollars to phone scammers, with some Russian officials blaming Ukraine for operating these schemes. He expresses his uncertainty about the veracity of these claims while grappling with the ethical implications of such actions during wartime. He acknowledges the inherent criminality of scamming but wrestles with the moral complexities of a situation where Ukraine is fighting for its survival against an invading force. He debates the justifications for targeting civilian infrastructure, drawing parallels with the destruction caused by conventional warfare and the potential for economic hardship to hasten the war's end. Jonathan delves into the philosophical concept of "moral consequentialism", where the morality of an action is judged by its outcomes, even if the means employed are considered unethical. He acknowledges the absence of a universally accepted moral framework and the subjective nature of moral judgments, inviting viewers to share their perspectives on this complex issue.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 41:41-41:46⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their continued support, urging them to share their thoughts and opinions in the comments.
Return to top⤴️
