Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"But of course, that eventuality doesn't justify the early claims, but that's what appears to happen anyway. That frustrates me and I think it frustrates Andrew Perpetua as well, right?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video, a Ukraine War Frontline Update for March 25th, 2024, and prepares to delve into the frontline situation using his map.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Front: Kupiansk, Svatove, Kreminna
🎦 00:10-01:19⏩
Jonathan points out that the northeastern front from Kupiansk to Svatove to Kreminna remains largely unchanged, with dynamic activity concentrated around the Terny-Torska area (specifically Bilohirka and the Sversk frontline).
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Bakhmut: Russian Advances and Key Areas
🎦 01:19-06:39⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to Bakhmut, citing ISW reports of confirmed Russian advances northwest and southwest of the city.
- He highlights Russian progress south of Bohdanivka and north of Klishchiivka, referencing discrepancies between maps from different sources (Surat Maps, Deep State Map, Andrew Perpetua).
- Jonathan expresses concern about the strategic importance of Ivanivske, noting that its potential fall would jeopardize Ukrainian control east of the canal.
- He utilizes various sources, including geolocation footage, to illustrate the situation and emphasizes the dynamic nature of the frontline.
Mapping Discrepancies and Frustrations
🎦 06:39-07:50⏩
- Jonathan acknowledges inconsistencies between different map sources, highlighting the frustration this can cause for analysts like himself and Andrew Perpetua.
- He expresses concern about overly optimistic representations of Russian control, even if they eventually capture the areas in question.
Introducing 3D Terrain Analysis
🎦 07:50-10:26⏩
- Jonathan introduces a new tool for analysis: a 3D map (with 300% terrain accentuation) from the ISW.
- He acknowledges its limitations but highlights its value in understanding the impact of topography on battlefield dynamics.
- He uses the area around Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar as an example, demonstrating how the high ground offers tactical advantages.
Bilohirka: Topography and Tactical Significance
🎦 10:26-12:26⏩
- Jonathan uses the 3D map to examine Bilohirka, emphasizing the challenges posed by the terrain (quarries, rivers, elevation changes).
- He suggests that the area will likely remain a "grey zone" due to the difficulties in achieving decisive control.
Avdiivka: Frontline Developments and Analysis
🎦 12:26-16:30⏩
- Moving south of Bakhmut, Jonathan focuses on Avdiivka, noting no significant changes in the north but highlighting activity around Tonenka, Opytne, and Pervomaiske.
- He references ISW reports of Russian advances west of Tonenka and Ukrainian positions on the western outskirts of Opytne.
- He questions the timeliness of some geolocated footage, expressing skepticism about Ukrainian presence west of Opytne.
Novomykhailivka: Russian Gains and Ukrainian Resistance
🎦 16:30-21:07⏩
- Jonathan shifts attention further south to Novomykhailivka, acknowledging consistent reports of Russian gains in the area.
- He analyzes map discrepancies, noting closer alignment between Deep State Map and Surat Maps compared to Andrew Perpetua's more conservative approach.
- Jonathan discusses the strategic importance of Novomykhailivka in relation to Kostyantynivka, acknowledging the increasingly precarious situation for Ukrainian forces.
- He cites ISW analysis and geolocated footage to illustrate Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance, highlighting the destruction of Russian T-80BV tanks southwest of the village.
Wrap Up
🎦 21:07-21:19⏩
- Jonathan thanks JR for the mapping contributions and expresses gratitude to his viewers.
- He hopes the analysis has been informative and bids farewell.