Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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"This only suggests, does not support the hypothesis that Russia are doing badly. That's the only reason you'd have these mass movement of command personnel."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a frontline update for May 1, 2023. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) American think tank has not produced their normal daily report due to the weekend, but published a special edition detailing changes in Russian military command since the start of the invasion.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Russian Military Command Changes
- The mass movement of Russian command personnel suggests Russia is doing badly in the war
- Russia did not create an overall theater commander until months into the war, partly explaining their poor initial invasion performance
- Originally planned as a "special military operation", it quickly turned into a war Russia was ill-prepared for
- Constant shuffling of commanders reflects lack of clear goals and inability to properly assess successes and failures
Frontline Update: Kupyansk to Kreminna
- Not much activity reported in this sector
- Some possible Ukrainian advances around Bilohorivka and Russian pushes in the Serebryansk forest south of Kreminna according to some mappers, but not confirmed by official sources
Bakhmut
- Russians have made advances in the north and southeast of Bakhmut according to pro-Russian sources, but pro-Ukrainian sources dispute the extent
- Ukrainians now control less than 10% of Bakhmut by most estimates
- Speculation that Ukraine may attempt something before the symbolic May 9 Russian Victory Day, or continue grinding down Russian forces at high cost
- Wagner leader Prigozhin admitted taking 230m of territory at the cost of nearly 100 casualties, confirming the attritional nature of the battle
- Both sides using snipers extensively in the area
Avdiivka
- Differences between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian mappers on the extent of Russian control around Avdiivka
- Unconfirmed Ukrainian claims of pushing back Russians in the Kruta Balka area
- Lack of detailed information from official sources
Marinka
- Russians may have made a breakthrough in central Marinka, taking full control of Druzhby Avenue according to pro-Russian sources
- If confirmed, would put them closer to the western outskirts of the heavily destroyed town
- Taking Marinka is symbolically important for Russia's Donbas ambitions but has little intrinsic value
Vuhledar
- Ukrainian forces appear to have made gains south of Vuhledar, pushing back Russians southwest of Pavlivka according to both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian mappers
- Could force Russia to divert attention from Vuhledar to avoid being flanked
- No explicit confirmation from official sources yet
Other Frontline Developments
- Russian source suggested Russia will conduct their own southern offensive if Ukrainian counteroffensive fails, but capability is doubtful
- Russia seeking to subordinate paramilitary groups like Wagner under military command, reflecting lack of quality conventional forces
- Claimed formation of new VDV airborne brigades, but likely lower quality than pre-war elite units
Wrap up
Jonathan expects relatively quiet days until Ukraine mounts a major counterattack. He thanks viewers Boz and Sub Hero for their super chat donations and support.
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