Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update

"The Ukraine is really relying a lot more on drones and then their distance weapons every night, trying to hit the Russian critical infrastructure that helps them to prosecute the war, the economy, the military-industrial base, trying to grind that down with large-scale missile and drone forays into Russia."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a four day Ukraine War Frontline Update for 15th January 2025. He advises that he will have to whiz through it as he is short of time today.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kursk Oblast: Overview

🎦 00:23-00:39⏩
Jonathan begins by looking at the Kursk Oblast, noting that there have been minor changes. The Ukrainians haven't counterattacked as expected. Jonathan believes that there may have been insufficient forces to do so.

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Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian activity

🎦 00:39-00:51⏩
Jonathan observes that Ukrainian forces were likely trying to establish themselves more robustly in the region and keep the Russians on their toes. They may also have been trying to draw more Russian troops to the front line.

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Kursk Oblast: Russian activity

🎦 00:51-01:04⏩
Although Ukrainian forces made some advances, Russian troops have pushed back significantly. There are a large number of North Korean soldiers as well as equipment in the area. Russian forces have been employing meat wave tactics.

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Kursk Oblast: Svatove-Kreminna front - Ukrainian advance near Bilohorivka

🎦 01:04-01:28⏩
Jonathan reports that GreySkull (pro-Ukrainian source) suggests that Ukrainian forces have made some recent advances in the last 24 hours around Bilohorivka. However, this is already under Russian defensive lines according to Jonathan's maps. He concludes that this could indicate Ukraine has more robust control in the middle of that area and may indicate some success.

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Kursk Oblast: Svatove-Kreminna front - Russian advances

🎦 01:28-02:06⏩
Ukrainian forces are being pushed back a little on the western side of the salient around Mala Lakhnia. There is a lot of Russian activity in this area, although they haven’t managed to squeeze into any more of the area to the northwest. Further Russian advances are reported by Kuzmyne, however Jonathan notes differences in reporting by the two mapping sources used - Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps - for the north, west and eastern areas.

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Kursk Oblast: Svatove-Kreminna front - Mapping differences

🎦 02:06-02:29⏩
Jonathan notes that there is a huge difference between what Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps are showing in the Kursk Oblast. Andrew Perpetua is showing as Russian advances in the east, and Suriyak Maps the opposite. Generally, Andrew Perpetua tends to be more generous to Ukrainian gains.

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Kursk Oblast: Svatove-Kreminna front - Russian advances near Makivka

🎦 02:29-03:01⏩
Andrew Perpetua reports that Russian forces have made small gains at Makivka where they lost a lot of troops previously. Both sides are pushing back and forth, but Russian forces appear to be making some headway.

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Kursk Oblast: Svatove-Kreminna front - Update on Kupiansk and Pishchane

🎦 03:01-03:22⏩
Jonathan reports no change around Kupiansk. He suspects the Ukrainians might be counterattacking to the east of Pishchane, in the area he refers to as the Pishchane sector where Russian troops had pushed to the Oskil River.

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Kursk Oblast: Svatove-Kreminna front - Fighting near Kolisnyky

🎦 03:22-03:46⏩
Jonathan reports fighting near Kolisnyky, suggesting that Ukrainian forces may have pushed the Russians back.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian gains near Mykolaivka

🎦 03:46-04:00⏩
In the Donestk Oblast, Jonathan observes that Russian forces have made small gains on the western edge of Mykolaivka, according to Andrew Perpetua. Suriyak maps already show this to be under Russian control.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian gains north of Ivaniske

🎦 04:00-04:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have made some gains north of Ivaniske near water features in the area. He notes that they are advancing slowly but consistently.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - No change in Serebrianka Forest

🎦 04:13-04:26⏩
On a more positive note, Jonathan reports that there is no change on the entire Soledar front line near the Serebrianka Forest.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian gains in Orikhovo-Vasylivka

🎦 04:26-05:00⏩
Jonathan reports some Russian gains in Orikhovo-Vasylivka, north west of Bakhmut. Both mappers show that Russian forces have made sizable gains in the region which has been static for some time.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian gains in Chasiv Yar

🎦 05:00-05:29⏩
Jonathan reports further Russian gains to the south of the eastern edge of Chasiv Yar. Suriyak Maps shows that Russian forces now control all of the urban area just to the west of the canal. Both mappers agree that Russian forces have also made gains inside the Chasiv Yar area, taking back an industrial facility from Ukrainian forces. Jonathan believes that this could represent significant Russian gains over the four days.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian gains near Klishchiivka

🎦 05:29-05:52⏩
Jonathan reports that according to Suriyak Maps, Russian troops have moved onto what appears to be a tailings heap or quarry to the south of Stepochki, to the west of Klishchiivka. This will be challenging for the Ukrainians to defend.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russians capture of Kurdyumivka

🎦 05:52-06:13⏩
Jonathan states that Kurdyumivka appears to have fallen to Russian forces. There may be some fighting on the very outskirts, but both mappers agree that the majority of the settlement is now under Russian control.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian advances near New York

🎦 06:13-06:36⏩
Russian forces have also made a small, but significant, gain towards Novomykolaivka, in the area previously known as New York. Jonathan notes that Russian gains, although small and incremental are cumulative.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian advances near Vodyane

🎦 06:36-06:52⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have made small gains, according to Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps, on the northern edge of the front line near Vodyane.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Ukrainian gains in Chasiv Yar

🎦 06:52-07:58⏩
Jonathan plays and comments on some footage he has received of fighting near Chasiv Yar. He notices that Greyskull's map (pro-Ukrainian source) differs from the other maps he is using and shows that Ukrainian forces made gains in the northern part of the settlement, and that they (rather than Russian forces) took control of the industrial facility. Jonathan speculates that Ukrainian forces may have made some gains that were later countered by the Russians.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian attempts to cut the T0504 highway

🎦 07:58-09:34⏩
Returning to the northern section of the front line near Vodyane Jonathan comments on the importance of the T0504 highway which runs from Krasnohorivka to Kostyantynivka and then to Bakhmut via Stepochki. Russian forces have been trying to cut off this road for some time, but until recently Ukrainian forces had managed to hold them back. Jonathan shows footage of fighting near the road, reporting that Russian forces, supported by armoured vehicles, launched an attack on the right flank in the direction of Krasnohorivka, near the Malinovka Junction, with the aim of cutting the road. Although the attack was repelled, fighting is continuing in the area.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Update on the T0504 highway

🎦 09:34-10:13⏩
Jonathan continues to examine the footage of fighting near the T0504 highway, speculating where the fighting might be taking place. He concludes that, as both mappers show it as grey zone, it is likely that Russian forces are close to capturing this section of the road which would be bad news for the Ukrainians.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian advances near Krasnohorivka

🎦 10:13-10:50⏩
Jonathan points out further Russian gains all along the front line near Krasnohorivka, to the south and western side of the sector. He notes that Suriyak Maps shows the gains as being larger than those shown on Andrew Perpetua’s map, but the Russian advances are obvious on both.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Russian advances near Kurdyumivka and Ukrainian counterattacks

🎦 10:50-11:39⏩
Jonathan reports further Russian gains around Kurdyumivka, advancing towards Ozaryanivka from the east and also from the north. However, Ukrainian forces appear to be pushing Russian forces back in Shevchenko. This is supported by Greyskull, who reports a successful Ukrainian counterattack to the west of Shevchenko in the direction of Kurdyumivka. Jonathan notes that Suriyak Maps does not show this counterattack at all and is more generous in showing Russian advances. However, both maps show that Russian forces are having much more success all over the front line than Ukrainian forces.

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Donetsk Oblast: Bakhmut sector - Ukrainian recapture of Zelenivka

🎦 11:39-12:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces have retaken Zelenivka, south west of Kurdyumivka and have captured a group of Russian soldiers. This was reported four days ago by NOELreports. Jonathan shows a picture of seven Russian POWs from the Zelenivka Forest area.

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Donetsk Oblast: Southern Front - Situation in the Zelenivka Forest area

🎦 12:13-12:28⏩
Jonathan examines the Zelenivka Forest area on his maps, noting that Ukrainian forces have taken the area under their control, pushing Russian forces back south of a river. It appears that the river is acting as a natural barrier and has prevented Russian forces from crossing.

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Donetsk Oblast: Southern Front - Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka

🎦 12:28-13:00⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been some fairly significant changes around Velyka Novosilka with Russian forces appearing to be closing in on the settlement. It will be very difficult for Ukrainian forces to hold onto the town.

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Donetsk Oblast: Southern Front - Possible Ukrainian gains in Robotyne

🎦 13:00-13:10⏩
Jonathan states that he has seen a report stating that Ukrainian forces may have retaken a small amount of territory in Robotyne. However, he believes it will be fairly insignificant.

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Jonathan's observations: Russian and Ukrainian tactics

🎦 13:10-13:57⏩
Jonathan reflects on the situation on the front lines. He believes that Ukrainian forces do not have the troop numbers to hold back the Russian advance and are increasingly having to rely on drones and long range weapons such as HIMARS to attack Russian logistics, infrastructure and military industrial capacity.

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Wrap up

🎦 13:57-14:02⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, hopes his analysis was obvious, and signs off.

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