Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"I think arson is going to be such a threat going forward"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War news update for the 4th of August 2024. He apologizes for the video being slightly later than usual.
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Ukraine: First 10 F-16s Arrive
🎦 00:09-02:46⏩
Jonathan reports that the first 10 of 79 promised F-16 fighter jets arrived in Ukraine on July 31st.
- Ukraine is expected to have 20 of these American-made jets in operation by the end of 2024, with the remaining jets to be delivered throughout 2025.
- Jonathan speculates that the F-16s will initially be used for air defense to intercept missiles and drones, allowing Ukrainian pilots to reacquaint themselves with operating fighter jets.
- He highlights the logistical challenges of the F-16, noting that Ukrainian airbases will be targeted by Russia.
Ukraine: Upgraded Corvettes Launched in Turkey
🎦 02:46-03:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the launch of the Ukrainian corvette, Hetman Ivan Mazepa, in Turkey.
- Both corvettes are currently being tested in the Black Sea.
- He is surprised they are being tested in the Black Sea, as he assumed they would be built and kept outside the Black Sea until after the war.
Ukraine: Corvettes Equipped with Additional Weapon Systems
🎦 03:13-03:49⏩
Jonathan highlights that the Hetman Ivan Mazepa class corvettes have been outfitted with 50% more weapons systems than initially planned, according to defense analyst Dmitry Platonchuk.
- Platonchuk suggests these additional weapons systems will include electronic warfare and drone capabilities. He is quoted as saying "this ship has a lot of surprises in store."
- Jonathan believes the corvettes will be a primary target for the Russian military.
Ukraine: German Skynex Air Defence System
🎦 03:49-04:37⏩
Jonathan shares images of the German-made Skynex air defense system in use by the Ukrainian military.
- This palletized version of the system is stationary but could be mounted on a truck.
- Jonathan speculates that it is likely positioned near a strategic location such as an airbase or a nuclear power plant.
- He highlights its likely role in intercepting drones and cruise missiles.
Ukraine: Rumours of Attacks on Russian Territory
🎦 04:37-05:14⏩
Jonathan addresses rumors, originating from Ukrainian sources, suggesting that Ukraine is now striking targets within Russia.
- These attacks allegedly involve ATACMS missiles, drones, and potentially new Ukrainian-made missiles, going beyond the Neptune anti-ship missile.
- Jonathan emphasizes these are rumors and should be treated with caution.
Poland & Ukraine: Joint Military Brigade
🎦 05:14-08:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the agreement between Ukraine and Poland to establish and train a joint military brigade on Polish soil.
- This "Ukrainian Legion" will be open to Ukrainian volunteers living in Poland and other EU countries, including those who left to avoid conscription and long-time Ukrainian residents abroad.
- The brigade, intended to be deployed to Ukraine, is part of a security agreement signed by Zelenskyy and Tusk on July 8th.
- Jonathan notes concerns about potential challenges, including:
- Poland's capacity to fully equip the brigade given existing military aid to Ukraine.
- Potential morale issues stemming from the rotation of Legion members back to Poland.
- Possible tensions between Legion members and Ukrainian soldiers who haven't been rotated.
- Despite these challenges, Jonathan views this development as positive, highlighting Poland's training of over 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers since the war began. He acknowledges that NATO training doesn't always align with the realities of the conflict.
- He also mentions that the Kyiv Independent reports that Russia has recruited Egyptian nationals to fight in Ukraine.
USA: Prisoner Swap - Trump's Reaction
🎦 08:56-11:08⏩
Jonathan criticizes Donald Trump's reaction to the recent prisoner exchange between the US and Russia.
- He argues that Trump's congratulatory message to Putin for the deal, which secured the release of journalist Evan Gershkovich, plays into Russia's hands.
- Jonathan expresses disappointment, suggesting that even Republicans opposed to Biden's actions should consider the implications of their rhetoric.
- He believes that refraining from comment or suggesting alternative approaches would have been more appropriate.
Russia: Decline in Oil Exports
🎦 11:08-12:06⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia experienced a significant decline in oil exports in July, marking the most substantial decrease this year.
- Exports from Western ports plummeted to their lowest point in almost two years, with a notable drop in supplies to China.
- While the decrease was partially offset by increased exports from Saudi Arabia and the United States, overall Russian oil exports by sea hit their lowest point in nearly a year.
- Jonathan sees this as positive news for Ukraine and the West, as it limits Russia's revenue stream.
Germany: Berlin Train Disruptions - Possible Sabotage
🎦 12:06-14:05⏩
Jonathan reports on disruptions to Berlin's train services caused by suspected vandalism, adding to a string of similar incidents targeting European infrastructure.
- Arsonists damaged cable systems essential to the Berlin S-Bahn network, impacting rail traffic in and out of the German capital.
- Dr. Benjamin Schmidt suggests that NATO Article 4 consultations should be considered.
- Jonathan expresses concern over the growing threat of arson against critical infrastructure across the Western world, suggesting it is an easy and effective tactic for Russia or terrorist groups to exploit.
- He argues that arson poses a more significant risk than bomb threats due to its simplicity and lower risk for those carrying out the attacks.
Jackson Hinkle's Pro-North Korea Stance
🎦 14:05-16:54⏩
Jonathan criticizes American political commentator Jackson Hinkle for his recent praise of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
- He calls out Hinkle for lauding Kim Jong-un as an "incredible leader" for visiting areas affected by flooding.
- Jonathan highlights the irony, reminding viewers of Kim Jong-un's brutal execution of his uncle, and sees the flooding visit as a mere PR stunt.
- He dismisses Hinkle as a mouthpiece for Russia and the American Communist Party.
Wrap up
🎦 16:54-17:30⏩
Jonathan wraps up the video, acknowledging the shorter format due to limited Ukraine-related news. He mentions his upcoming two-week holiday but reassures viewers that he will still be posting content. He sends birthday wishes to a viewer named Roman from Australia and thanks his audience for their support.
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