Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They are making gains, but it comes at quite a cost."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:50⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers, apologising for the late hour of the video, and explains that while JR did the initial mapping, he himself has added updates from Suriat Maps. He acknowledges that it’s Friday night and he’s had a bottle of wine.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front
🎦 00:50-03:45⏩
There have been reports, including one in the Telegraph, that Russia is preparing a major attack in the Kupyansk direction, with significant activity noted near Snihurivka. Jonathan points out that there has been a history of such claims, many of which turned out to be unfounded. He notes that there is some Russian movement south of Kreminna, near Torsk, but that the frontline itself has been fairly static, although costly for both sides.
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Northern Bakhmut Front
🎦 03:45-06:12⏩
Jonathan reports minor Russian gains north of Bakhmut, near Klishchiivka, based on DeepStateMap data. He then focuses on the area northwest of Bakhmut, near the O0506 highway, where there are reports of intense fighting, with both sides making small advances and counter-attacks. There are concerns from Ukrainian soldiers about ammunition and artillery shortages.
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Bakhmut-Avdiivka Area
🎦 06:12-07:58⏩
, 15:27-16:49⏩
- Jonathan notes a significant increase in Russian shelling and airstrikes in the area between Bakhmut and Avdiivka. He speculates that this could be due to the Russians feeling more confident about a lack of Ukrainian air defences in this area.
- He later returns to this area to highlight the substantial equipment losses the Russians have suffered here in the past week, including 240mm mortars, Tulip heavy mortars, and TOS-1 thermobaric rocket launchers. He believes this degradation of Russian artillery could have significant implications for their ability to sustain offensives.
Avdiivka Front
🎦 07:58-15:27⏩
Jonathan provides a detailed analysis of the Avdiivka front, drawing on maps from both DeepStateMap and Suriat Maps, and referencing insights from Andrew Perpetua:
- Russian Advances: He reports Russian advances south of Pervomaiske, near the water treatment plant, and east of Keramik, based on information from Suriat Maps. However, he also points out that Suriat Maps often issues "corrections," suggesting Ukrainian counter-attacks or, more likely, overzealous initial claims.
- Strategic Implications: Jonathan agrees with Perpetua's assessment that the Russian advances in this area, while geographically limited, could eventually threaten Avdiivka's supply lines, achieving a similar outcome to a direct push through Stepove and towards Pervomaiske.
- Ukrainian Options: He questions whether Ukraine will launch a counter-attack or choose to make Russia bleed for every meter. He argues that a counter-attack would likely be more successful from the north, where the higher ground around Krasnohorivka offers a strategic advantage over the flat terrain to the south.
- Resource Constraints: Jonathan acknowledges that a major counter-offensive would require significant resources, which Ukraine may not have readily available. He observes that Russia is also facing constraints, highlighting the high cost they are paying for their limited territorial gains.
Mariinka Front
🎦 16:50-17:17⏩
Jonathan states that the situation in Mariinka appears to have stabilised, with no significant changes to report.
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Velyka Novosilka - Novomykolaivka Front
🎦 17:17-20:58⏩
Jonathan focuses on the area around Novomykolaivka, again referencing Andrew Perpetua’s analysis:
- Ukrainian Resilience: He points out that Ukraine has successfully stabilised the frontline here, despite the challenging terrain, which, similar to the area south of Avdiivka, is very flat and open.
- Heavy Russian Losses: Jonathan highlights the “tremendous” equipment losses suffered by the Russians in this area, noting that the number of destroyed vehicles indicated on the maps doesn’t fully capture the scale of the losses. Perpetua estimates that Russia could be missing up to 100 vehicles in this sector alone.
- Wider Context of Attrition: Jonathan emphasises that the heavy equipment losses suffered by Russia around Novomykolaivka are part of a wider pattern, with other "equipment graveyards" emerging near Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and Kreminna. He argues that this attrition is strategically significant and that focusing on individual towns or fields obscures the bigger picture.
Zaporizhzhia Front
🎦 20:58-21:21⏩
Jonathan reports no significant changes on the Zaporizhzhia front, from Donetsk to Kherson.
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Kinburn Spit & Kherson Front
🎦 21:21-25:05⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to the Kinburn Spit, where he details the ongoing attrition warfare and highlights Ukrainian successes in destroying Russian equipment.
- He cites a video from the Ukrainian military showing a large explosion, potentially caused by a new type of large explosive dropped from a drone, and another from a drone unit called “Magyar’s Eagles,” which has been particularly effective in taking out Russian equipment.
- He also notes a report from the Ukrainian General Staff claiming the repulsion of six Russian assaults on the left bank of the Dnipro River, suggesting that Ukrainian drone and electronic warfare superiority is taking a toll on Russian morale, contributing to refusals to attack the Ukrainian bridgehead.
- However, Jonathan acknowledges the difficult and likely sacrificial situation of the Ukrainian troops holding the Kinburn Spit bridgehead, referencing the recent New York Times article. He believes that their presence serves a strategic purpose by fixing Russian troops and inflicting heavy losses.
Wrap up
🎦 25:05-25:24⏩
Jonathan concludes the frontline update, reiterating that while Russia is making gains, these are coming at a high cost in key areas like Avdiivka and the Kinburn Spit. He apologises for any garbled speech and signs off.
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