Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
---|---|---|
1 | Hello Team | 00:00-03:26⏩ |
2 | Northeastern Front | 03:26-05:17⏩ |
3 | Svatove-Kreminna Front | 05:17-07:30⏩ |
4 | Bakhmut Front | 07:30-18:53⏩ |
5 | Dnipro River Front | 25:01-27:08⏩ |
6 | Wrap up | 27:08-27:27⏩ |
"It's why all my videos in the mornings are taking longer. They are longer videos. It's just so much happening."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-03:26⏩
Jonathan kicks off the daily Ukraine War Frontline Update, acknowledging the increased length of his morning videos due to the high volume of geopolitical developments. He lightheartedly speculates about Zelenskyy's frequent travels and shares a glimmer of hope regarding potential US aid to Ukraine, citing information from Alexander Ustinov and Andrew Perpetua's livestream. Jonathan expresses gratitude to JR for six months of map updates and to Grimsoft on Discord, hinting at plans to create a platform for sharing resources like letters to senators.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Front
🎦 03:26-05:17⏩
- Russians make gains north of Sinkivka despite heavy Ukrainian bombardment in the area.
- Yahidne sees back-and-forth fighting with Russian advances.
- Jonathan predicts sustained Russian progress in the sector, except for the Crinky area.
- Ukrainians achieve a slight pushback northwest of Dubrovo.
Svatove-Kreminna Front
🎦 05:17-07:30⏩
- Limited Russian territorial gain near Serebryansky Forest, pushing towards Siversk.
- Discrepancies between maps from Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua regarding Russian control in the area, with the latter being more conservative.
- Perpetua cites a lack of information since June-July, suggesting the front line could be further west than depicted.
- Jonathan recalls previous discussions with Perpetua about the potential for a Ukrainian offensive in this area, which ultimately stalled due to resource allocation to Robotyne.
Bakhmut Front
🎦 07:30-18:53⏩
- Continued Russian advances around Bohdanivka, west of the Bakhmutka reservoir.
- Mappers indicate significant Russian territorial gains west of Bakhmut, corroborated by footage shared by Konstantin of the 5th Assault Brigade targeting Russian troops with drone-dropped IEDs near Klishchivka.
- Russians make a minor gain northwest of Klishchivka, potentially controlling a trench network according to Suriat Maps, though Perpetua remains cautious.
- Suriat Maps reports Russians retaking areas west of Bakhmut lost in May's counteroffensive.
- Emil Kastehelmi notes Ukrainian difficulties on Bakhmut's northern flank, with Russian gains reversing some spring/summer progress.
- Ukrainians reached Bukivka and advanced towards Yahidne on the northern side and Klishchivka on the southern side during the summer, even clearing 12km of the Donetsk-Donbas canal, but Russian pushback in August stalled the advance.
- Klishchivka's capture was slow and resource-intensive, followed by Andriivka, but the southern flank also slowed down.
- Recent Russian attacks have reached the Kromova Road (O0506) west of Bakhmut, threatening Ukrainian positions on overlooking heights.
- Kastehelmi suggests a strategic withdrawal to stronger defensive lines around Chasiv Yar might be advantageous.
- Chasiv Yar, situated on higher ground, offers better defenses and presents a more formidable challenge than Bakhmut.
- The current frontline's value lies in its overlooking position for targeting Bakhmut, but a strategic withdrawal could be beneficial.
- Russians claim to have retaken fortifications near Klishchivka, but this lacks visual confirmation. If true, it could threaten Ukrainian operations east of Andriivka.
- While the situation remains tense, no imminent collapse or large-scale breakthroughs are anticipated on either side.
- Jonathan believes that allowing the Russians to attack can be advantageous as it depletes their resources. He notes footage of Russian troops using captured Ukrainian soldiers as human shields, highlighting it as a war crime.
- Heavy Ukrainian losses reported near Bohdanivka.
- North of Avdiivka, Russians gain ground around Stepova, pushing Andrew Perpetua's marked Russian defensive line further forward. The eastern part of Stepova is under Russian control.
- Russians expand control northwards along the railway and west of Krasnohorivka.
- Despite initial reports of a stalemate, Russian advances near Avdiivka raise concerns due to the vulnerability of Ukrainian supply lines.
- Gains in Avdiivka's south could sever the primary remaining supply route.
- Jonathan expresses concern over Russian advances around Avdiivka, emphasizing the ease with which the encirclement could be tightened.
- Russian control in Mariinka expands, with Andrew Perpetua adjusting his mapping to reflect this.
- Significant discrepancies (up to 1km) exist between Perpetua's and Suriat Maps' depictions of Russian control north of Mariinka.
- Ukrainians continue to hold parts of Mariinka, but the situation remains challenging.
- Jonathan reiterates the strategic importance of Mariinka in diverting Russian forces from critical areas further west, such as Kurakhove, which holds strategic dams and logistical routes.
- Suriat Maps indicates Russian successes near Pobeda, a vital location for preventing Mariinka's encirclement and protecting supply routes to the west.
- Losing Pobeda would jeopardize Kostyantynivka and Vuhledar, potentially allowing Russians to advance along the heights and threaten Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on Mariupol. Jonathan emphasizes the need for longer-range munitions like GLSDB to counter this threat.
- Novomykhailivka, like Pobeda, is crucial for preventing Russian advances on Kostyantynivka and further south.
Dnipro River Front
🎦 25:01-27:08⏩
- Footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone eliminating a Russian mortar south of Krinki.
- Jonathan analyzes the drone footage, estimating the mortar's range and highlighting the vulnerability of mortars within the 10km range of most FPV drones.
- Perpetua's map indicates a wider Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro than previously thought.
- Jonathan stresses the importance of Ukraine expanding this bridgehead toward Kursk and Kozachi Laheri, connecting it with existing bridgeheads at Pishchane and Vyshchetarasivka to Krinki.
- Lack of movement in these bridgeheads over the past six weeks poses a significant challenge for Ukrainian forces.
Wrap up
🎦 27:08-27:27⏩
Jonathan concludes the frontline update, acknowledging its somewhat scattered nature due to the fluid situation.
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