Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"...when we see pins on maps it's very easy to just go oh my god that's terrible but we don't always understand that the a might not be true or that actually other things are happening or what this state of play is for each of the sides involved in the fighting in these areas...so it could be that the russians take control of an area but actually they've got no food and no water they've got no supply routes coming through they're in a load of trouble..."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a frontline update for 17/10/2024. He notes that he will be busy the next day so is recording this at night. Jonathan thanks JR for his help with some technical issues but there are still some issues with the mapping software that need to be fixed.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kursk Region Frontline Update
🎦 01:21-16:36⏩
Jonathan begins with the Kursk region. Looking at the Andrew Perpetua map, the Russians have pushed back Ukrainian forces over the last 4 days with particular success in the west of the region near Glushkovo - this is reflected in both the Suriyak and Perpetua maps. This is significant as the Russians have previously been pushed back to their defensive line, but according to the maps, they have now retaken a significant amount of territory. Further north, near Ljubimovka and Novoivanovka, the situation is less clear. The Suriyak map shows that the Russians have retaken Ljubimovka and are close to taking Novoivanovka while the Perpetua map shows the Russians are further back. Jonathan reminds viewers to be cautious about map positions as they do not necessarily reflect who is in control on the ground.
- Jonathan references footage from WarTranslated that shows a Ukrainian BTR being destroyed from close range by a Ukrainian tank after the BTR mistakenly approached it thinking it was Russian. The interesting aspect of this footage is that it demonstrates the high levels of coordination between Ukrainian drone teams and tank crews.
- Russian sources report that the Ukrainians have regrouped and are putting up a stiff defence with some suggesting that the Russian advance has slowed. Jonathan notes that there is evidence of high levels of attrition by both sides, although it is unclear who is suffering the most.
- There are reports that mines have been scattered across roads and fields (including anti-tank “dragon’s teeth” obstacles). Russian sources confirm that Ukrainian forces are using octocopter drones to deploy the mines and that they are disguised as logs making them difficult to see.
- Near Cherkasskaya Konopelka (where there has been a lot of activity recently), Russian forces attempted to advance, but were repelled by Ukrainian forces who destroyed 2 Russian infantry fighting vehicles as they retreated.
- There are claims (from pro-Ukrainian sources) that the Russian 155th Naval Infantry (who have been heavily attrited during the war) have been surrounded near Novoivanovka by Ukrainian forces and are experiencing difficulties with ammunition and food supplies. It is unclear whether or not this is accurate.
Kharkiv Region and Belgorod Oblast Frontline Update
🎦 16:36-23:25⏩
Jonathan now looks at the situation north of Kharkiv city, starting near Lyptsi where the Russians had attempted to advance to in order to place Kharkiv within artillery range. He speculates that this is a good time for the Ukrainians to push the Russians back as they have redeployed forces to defend Kursk. He suggests that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to exploit this by conducting an incursion into Belgorod Oblast (near Zhebrelevka) in order to force the Russians to divert troops from Kharkiv to defend their own territory. He notes that there are reports of heavy Russian losses in the area and that Ukrainian forces may have retaken a significant amount of territory.
- There are reports that Ukrainian forces from the GUR have had some success near Zhebrelevka, pushing up to 1km into Russian territory. Intel Schizo believes that if they can advance further, it will enable them to cut the main Russian supply route to Lyptsi and force a Russian withdrawal from the area. The Kyiv Independent reports that GUR forces have retaken 988 acres of forest north of Lyptsi and destroyed an entire Russian regiment, although Jonathan cautions that these claims need to be verified.
Kupyansk-Svatove Frontline Update
🎦 23:25-29:37⏩
Jonathan moves on to the Kupyansk-Svatove frontline. There is not much to report near Kupyansk which is in the process of being evacuated with only 3,000 of the pre-war population of 26,000 remaining.
- Further south, near Mikheevka, Ukrainian forces have retaken a small amount of territory that the Russians had previously captured as part of their advance towards the Oskil River.
- In the Serebryansky Forest, south of Kreminna, there is more agreement between the maps than previously. Recent Russian gains that were disputed are now recognised by both the Perpetua and Suriyak maps. These gains are significant as they place Russian forces within striking distance of Bilohorivka.
- West of the Siverskyi Donets River, near Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Russian forces have captured some high ground which Jonathan notes will make it easier for them to strike the town.
- There is a dispute between the maps about whether or not Russian forces have managed to advance past their bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets Canal west of Kalynivka. The Suriyak map shows Russian forces in control of Chesiv Yar while the Perpetua map has them further back. Jonathan notes that the Suriyak map tends to exaggerate Russian gains and it may be that fighting for the town is still ongoing.
Donetsk Frontline Update
🎦 29:37-43:27⏩
The situation in the south of the front is more concerning. In the Turetsk area where there has been heavy fighting, the frontline has remained static for the last 4 days suggesting a possible loss of momentum by Russian forces. Jonathan notes that Russian sources confirm this is the case.
- Near Novodarivka (south of Velyka Novosilka), the Suriyak map shows that Russian forces have made significant gains. However, these are not shown on the Perpetua map or the “No Reports” map, highlighting the discrepancies between some of the mapping sources. Despite this, Jonathan acknowledges that this is likely to be a contested area with high levels of Russian activity.
- Russian sources confirm that the offensive in Donetsk Oblast has slowed down due to a number of factors, including the weather (which makes it more difficult to use vehicles and favours the defender), a lack of manpower, and the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones. To overcome this, Russian forces have resorted to small unit tactics (pairs or trios of troops) which is resulting in significant losses (specifically around Prokhorivka).
- Despite being almost entirely encircled, Ukrainian forces have managed to hold onto Selidove. Russian forces claim to have captured a small amount of territory to the north of the town but have been unable to make any further progress.
- Near Vuhledar, the frontline has remained largely static with only minimal changes to positions.
- West of Vuhledar, near Pryiutne, the situation is less clear. While Russian forces have managed to make some gains in the area (which are confirmed by both maps), they are not as significant as initially feared. Jonathan reassures viewers that even if Russian forces do manage to break through, the most significant Ukrainian defensive lines are located further south and are well-prepared.
Wrap Up
🎦 43:27-43:37⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, noting that it has been a longer video due to it covering 4 days of fighting. He thanks everyone for watching.
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