Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The long-term effect of America's foreign policy approach will be that, yeah, bullies are cool, and, you know, big, strong people just go around extorting stuff out of weaker ones."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video update. This update is the first of several for the 28th of January 2025. Jonathan has been unwell and has been to Ukraine and back, experiencing an air raid siren while recording.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures - Last 3 Days
🎦 01:18-02:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian General Staff figures from the last three days. He notes that personnel losses have been lower but remain high (1,720, then 1,430, and 1,380). He mentions the need to check for visual confirmation from sources like Andrew Perpetua to verify the numbers.
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Andrew Perpetua's Verified Losses (26th January)
🎦 02:56-05:25⏩
Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses from January 26th. He highlights the high number of Russian vehicle losses, especially "Bukankas," comparing it to "burning down a bakery." Ukrainian losses included a CV-90, BMPs, a T-64 tank, an M113, and several French VABs. Jonathan points out the significance of Russian losses due to their reliance on wheeled vehicles.
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Drone Warfare - Success Rates (26th -28th January)
🎦 05:25-07:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the success rate of Russian drones over the past three days. He observes an unusually high rate of Russian drone strikes getting through Ukrainian air defenses. He notes the following:
- On the 26th, 12 out of 72 drones hit their targets.
- On the 27th, 8 out of 104 drones got through.
- On the 28th, 5 out of 100 drones hit their targets.
Jonathan expresses concern over these figures, emphasizing that the Russians have improved their drone tactics and are achieving more successful strikes in recent days.
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Ryazan Oil Refinery Hit - Impact on Russia
🎦 07:56-08:41⏩
Jonathan reports on the recent drone strike on the Ryazan oil refinery in Russia. The refinery has been hit twice and is now shut down. This is significant, as the plant accounts for 5% of Russia's refining capacity, impacting Russia's fuel production and potentially their military operations.
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Drone Attack Aftermath - Odessa & Kyiv
🎦 08:41-09:57⏩
Jonathan details the aftermath of the drone attacks on Ukraine, highlighting Odessa and Kyiv. In Odessa, there are reports of injuries, damaged buildings, burned vehicles, and a hit grain warehouse. In Kyiv, drone debris damaged a retro car museum, destroying 9 vehicles and damaging 27. Jonathan expresses sadness over the destruction of the classic cars.
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North Korean Troop Withdrawal from Kursk
🎦 09:57-12:19⏩
Jonathan discusses the reported withdrawal of North Korean troops from a section of the front in Kursk. He notes that this withdrawal suggests heavy losses on the North Korean side. He references conversations with military experts like Kevin Leach who, like Jonathan, believe the North Korean contribution to the war shouldn't be underestimated. Their involvement, according to Jonathan, has allowed Russia to sustain its offensive operations. The withdrawal, while a testament to Ukrainian resistance, highlights the cost of countering these additional forces.
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Latvia Cable Damage and Ship Arrest
🎦 12:19-13:06⏩
Jonathan reports on damage to another undersea cable near Latvia. A Maltese-flagged ship, "Vezhen," has been detained in Sweden in connection with the incident. Notably, the ship had departed from a Russian port two days prior, raising suspicions of Russian involvement in the cable sabotage.
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Trump Administration Freezes Foreign Aid
🎦 13:06-17:28⏩
Jonathan discusses the Trump Administration's decision to freeze foreign development assistance for 90 days, which initially caused concern among Ukrainian organizations reliant on US aid. The freeze impacts crucial areas like energy, infrastructure, and humanitarian projects. Although military aid to Ukraine remains unaffected, Jonathan criticizes the overall approach of the Trump Administration's foreign policy. He draws a parallel between Trump's actions and bullying, arguing that the pursuit of short-term gains through intimidation and extortion will damage America's global standing and alienate allies. He criticizes Trump for targeting allies while seemingly appeasing adversaries like China, arguing that this approach undermines international order and legitimizes aggressive behavior on the world stage.
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Russian Military Equipment Evacuation from Syria
🎦 17:28-19:50⏩
Jonathan reports that satellite imagery confirms the evacuation of Russian military equipment from Tartus, Syria. Two cargo ships, "Sparta" and "Sparta 2," were observed transporting equipment, suggesting Russia is consolidating its resources, potentially for use in Ukraine.
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Trump, Ukraine, and Transactional Diplomacy
🎦 19:50-20:16⏩
Jonathan analyzes the potential implications of Trump's foreign policy on Ukraine, suggesting that while Trump might ultimately continue supporting Ukraine, his motivations will be driven by personal gain and transactional benefits rather than genuine concern or strategic considerations. He draws a comparison with Trump's approach to Taiwan, arguing that Trump's focus on immediate gains could be detrimental to Taiwan's security in the face of Chinese aggression.
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Wrap up
🎦 20:16-20:19⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, urging viewers to stay informed about the unpredictable global situation and expressing his intent to provide further analysis in future videos.
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