Ukraine Conflict: 6-Day Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Six days is a long time because there are a lot of pink pins on the map. All along this front it looks like the Russians are pushing on... The last six days, we might have seen a bit more wind behind the Russian sails, reversing the trend of seeing the Russians seemingly culminate."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes the team to the ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War Frontline Update for 31st March 2025.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kursk/Sumy Border: Russian Claims and Mapping Discrepancies
🎦 00:10-03:29⏩
* Jonathan starts the update in the north, moving from Kursk Oblast into Sumy, using a map synthesising Suriyak Maps (pro-Russian) and Andrew Perpetua (pro-Ukraine).
- He highlights areas beyond the border in Sumy that Suriyak Maps claims Russia controls, based on Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reports.
- Map Key: Dark pink/puce pins show the previous Russian defensive line (according to Suriyak); the orange line shows the current position after six days. Blue pins indicate where the Russian line was, signifying Ukrainian gains.
- Jonathan notes a possible Ukrainian pushback in Sumy or a mapping correction by Suriyak Maps. He dismisses some errant pins as glitches generated by the mapping algorithm.
- The loss of Veselivka (just inside Ukraine) is reported by the Kyiv Independent, citing Russian MoD claims from the 29th.
- Suriyak Maps shows Russia pushing into Sumy and having regained control of most Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk, leaving only one small area.
- Andrew Perpetua's map disagrees, showing the Russian defensive line much further north in Kursk. Jonathan suggests Perpetua might align with Suriyak in a future update.
Kursk/Sumy Strategic Implications
🎦 03:29-04:01⏩
* Jonathan expresses concern about potential Russian advances into Sumy.
- He notes the loss of Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk, which was previously seen as a bargaining chip for negotiations.
- Losing this land and potentially losing ground in Sumy weakens Ukraine's negotiating position just as talks are potentially starting.
Belgorod Incursion Update
🎦 04:01-05:29⏩
* Jonathan moves to the Belgorod sector, where Ukraine launched an attack.
- There hasn't been much news; initial reports suggested Popovka and Demidovka were taken, possibly then retaken by Russia.
- A source ("Grayskull") reported Ukrainian counterattacks regaining control of Popovka and Demidovka.
- Jonathan contrasts this with the larger Kursk operation, calling the Belgorod incursion very small, involving only two brigades and arguably controlling just two small villages.
- BBC reported the operation ongoing for a week; Deep State reports Ukraine controlling 13 sq km of grey zone.
- Reports indicate Ukrainians are destroying strategic bridges in the area.
Belgorod Incursion Assessment
🎦 05:29-05:57⏩
* Jonathan assesses that the lack of significant change suggests the Belgorod incursion is unlikely to achieve much more unless Ukraine commits significantly more resources.
- Despite operational security considerations, he doubts it will replicate the initial success seen in Kursk.
Kharkiv Front: Vovchansk, Lypsti, Kupyansk
🎦 05:57-06:47⏩
* No change reported in the sectors around Vovchansk and Lypsti, north of Kharkiv.
- Kupyansk Area (West of Oskil River):
- Suriyak Maps shows substantial Russian gains pushing westwards from the Oskil River, north of Kupyansk (indicated by puce pins moving west).
- Andrew Perpetua shows small Russian gains around Dvorichna.
- Jonathan notes this area has seen Ukrainian counterattacks (e.g., near Zapadnyi) but Russians currently seem to be advancing.
- This is worrying as the Oskil River should have been a better natural defensive barrier.
Kupyansk Front: South Towards Ivanivka
🎦 06:47-07:19⏩
* Andrew Perpetua shows Ukrainians pushed back west of Ulyansk (north of Ivanivka).
- Jonathan notes this aligns with Suriyak Maps' previous claims, suggesting little change here in the last six days.
Svatove-Kreminna Front: Raihorodka Area Activity
🎦 07:19-07:54⏩
* Jonathan notes significant activity further south, though not fully reflected in the map updates (which were from the previous day).
- Around Raihorodka / Serhiivka, there are small mapped Ukrainian gains pushing the Russian defensive line back.
- However, there's much talk of movement, likely in grey zones, with Russians potentially being pushed back more significantly than mapped.
Pishchane: Ukrainian Glide Bomb Use
🎦 07:54-08:57⏩
* High-rise buildings in Pishchane (north of the main Raihorodka activity) are reported hit by Ukrainian guided glide bombs.
- Jonathan discussed increased glide bomb use in his morning video. He speculates:
- More footage is emerging.
- The arrival of F-16s and Mirages provides more airframes to deliver bombs like JDAMs, GBU-39s (US), and AASM Hammers (France).
- Previously, Ukraine likely had enough bombs but insufficient aircraft to deploy them effectively along the front line.
- With more capable aircraft used offensively, increased glide bomb usage is likely.
Svatove-Kreminna Front: Ukrainian Advances near Sahivka / Nadiia / Novoiehorivka
🎦 08:57-11:21⏩
* Claims of Ukrainian advances near Sahivka (north and south).
- Andrew Perpetua, citing the "Endspiel" Telegram channel (associated with Russia's 20th Combined Arms Army), confirms several small Ukrainian advances near Nadiia.
- Shelling of Nadiia (MLRS) and forests near Sahivka (helicopter rockets) and south of Novoiehorivka indicates Ukrainian activity.
- Jonathan clarifies his map: the Russian defensive line being pushed back doesn't mean Ukraine controls the forest near Sahivka or Nadiia, but that Russia lacks robust control and faces intense fire, making supply difficult.
- The actual fighting is occurring in these areas (grey zones), with the Ukrainian defensive line further back. The goal is to push Russia back.
Svatove-Kreminna Front: Novoiehorivka Status
🎦 11:21-12:30⏩
* Andrew Perpetua's map shows Novoiehorivka not under Russian control, more favourable to Ukraine.
- Other sources report Ukrainian progress in the Svatove sector, describing Novoiehorivka as a grey zone with the Russian line further back.
- Ukrainians are reportedly up to the western edge, the settlement is contested, and Russians are further east.
- This aligns more with Andrew Perpetua's mapping than Suriyak's.
- Reported Ukrainian gains here are likely into the grey zone, pushing Ukrainian control forward but not necessarily shifting the main Russian defensive line shown on Jonathan's map.
Svatove-Kreminna Front: Confirmed Ukrainian Advance at Novoiehorivka (Luhansk Front)
🎦 12:30-13:58⏩
* A report from this morning (31/03/2025) confirms Ukrainian forces advanced in the Novoiehorivka area on the Luhansk front.
- Jonathan locates this near the Luhansk/Kharkiv border intersection on the map.
- This advance involves taking control (likely from the grey zone) and pushing Russians back.
- It contradicts Suriyak Maps, which shows a treeline in this area under Russian control; the new report suggests it's a grey zone.
- Jonathan concludes this is good news, indicating small but consistent Ukrainian gains in this sector.
Kreminna Forest / Terny Area: Significant Russian Gains
🎦 13:58-15:09⏩
* The situation is less positive for Ukraine further south, around Terny and northwards.
- Both Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps show wide-scale Russian gains.
- Significant gains west of Balka Zhuravka (Suriyak Maps).
- Large gains west of Ivanivka and Terny, where Russians have advanced behind water features after a period of stability. Jonathan calls this a "sea change" in the last six days.
- Suriyak Maps shows even greater gains, reaching towards Katerynivka.
- Marginal gains south of Yampolivka (Suriyak Maps only).
Luhansk Oblast Strategic Importance
🎦 15:09-16:06⏩
* Jonathan is not overly concerned about the intrinsic value of the land being lost near Terny/Yampolivka, seeing the Oskil River as a natural barrier further west.
- However, he believes Ukraine doesn't want to lose all of Luhansk Oblast due to the psychological and political implications.
- Russia claiming full control would bolster its constitutional claims and negotiation position.
- This explains why Ukraine might fight hard for seemingly insignificant areas – to prevent Russia from declaring full control over Luhansk. The recent Russian gains here are definitely a worry.
Siversk Front / Chasiv Yar Update
🎦 16:06-17:03⏩
* No changes reported on the Siversk front ("reverse front line").
- Chasiv Yar: Relatively quiet.
- Suriyak Maps shows very small Russian gains south of Stupochky.
- Jonathan traces the T0504 highway from Bakhmut through Ivanivske, Stupochky towards Kostiantynivka (which is under heavy fire, along with Kramatorsk/Sloviansk).
- The highway continues towards Pokrovsk, is interdicted/under fire control near Ivanivske, and reaches the major road hub of Pokrovsk.
Toretsk Update: Contested Fighting
🎦 17:03-18:04⏩
* No map changes shown near Toretsk in the last six days (ignoring map glitches).
- However, reports suggest active fighting, with Ukrainians pushing back.
- A report from a couple of days prior stated the Russian situation northwest of Toretsk was becoming difficult, with Ukrainian troops pushing them out.
- Jonathan notes Ukraine has had success pushing Russians back here previously, but progress seems halted.
- Fighting in this dense urban area is attritional and labour-intensive, posing a challenge for Ukrainian advances. The front appears fairly stable currently.
South of Toretsk / New York Area: Russian Gains
🎦 18:04-18:45⏩
* Both mappers show Russian gains south of Toretsk and New York, pushing westwards.
- Regarding New York, there are lingering claims (not included in detail) about Ukrainians pushing Russians out of Shebynivka (discussed last time), contradicting the mapped Russian gains south of there.
- Suriyak Maps shows Russia taking Oleksandropil and Panteleimonivka, which Jonathan notes is concerning as this area hadn't seen much recent activity.
Pokrovsk Front: Lysivka / Shevchenko / Pishchane Area
🎦 18:45-19:31⏩
* Near Lysivka (Pokrovsk front), Suriyak Maps shows Russians pushed back, but Jonathan thinks Ukraine had success there recently.
- Shevchenko / Pishchane: Andrew Perpetua shows Russians pushed back around Shevchenko and between Shevchenko and Pishchane (ignoring glitches). This is good news for Ukraine.
- Oddly, Suriyak Maps shows no change here, despite numerous claims about this area.
Pokrovsk Front: Defensive Lines Built
🎦 19:31-22:29⏩
* Before discussing Shevchenko further, Jonathan highlights defensive preparations.
- MAKS24 (citing OSINT channels) reports Ukraine has built:
- Seven lines of defence behind Pokrovsk.
- An additional line near Kurakhove.
- An additional line in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Two additional lines across the Antonivka area.
- Jonathan stresses the importance of these lines, hoping they are robust and well-thought-out, built while the front was relatively stable.
- He contrasts this with the situation after Avdiivka fell (recalling the vast amount of land lost since then – Novokalynove, Pisky, Vesele, Opytne, Vodiane).
- Ukraine failed to build adequate defences behind Avdiivka, seemingly not anticipating its collapse after stability since 2014.
- The collapse was triggered by Russian guided glide bombs and a tunnel infiltration.
- The subsequent retreat meant defences were built hastily and poorly.
- While Russia took considerable time to advance to the current lines near Pokrovsk, the hope is that the newly prepared, multi-layered defences behind Pokrovsk will make further Russian advances extremely costly and slow.
- He expresses frustration that these defences weren't built properly behind Avdiivka earlier, noting widespread criticism of Ukraine's preparedness then.
Pokrovsk Front: Shevchenko / Pishchane Gains Confirmed
🎦 22:58-23:40⏩
Returning to Shevchenko/Pishchane: A source reported on the 29th that Ukrainian forces pushed Russians out from the area between* the villages, expanding the grey zone under their (effective) control.
- This confirms Andrew Perpetua's mapping showing Shevchenko largely not under Russian control.
Pokrovsk Front: Kotlyne Area - Ukrainians Attempting Encirclement?
🎦 23:40-25:25⏩
* Further west towards Pokrovsk, around Kotlyne, Ukraine appears to be trying to cut off a Russian position north of the railway line.
- Andrew Perpetua's map shows a very thin "neck" supplying this Russian outpost, making it vulnerable.
- Suriyak Maps disagrees entirely, showing Russia controlling the whole area. Jonathan calls this a meaningful difference.
- A claim suggests Ukraine has taken Kotlyne and is pushing to close the neck, while also taking tree lines further east (which Suriyak still shows as Russian-controlled).
- Both mappers show changes, with Ukrainians now south of the railway line here, which Jonathan sees as important and good news for Ukraine.
Pokrovsk Front: Zverove Recaptured by Ukraine
🎦 25:25-26:28⏩
* Jonathan backtracks slightly geographically to Zverove (east of the Kotlyne activity).
- Reports claim Ukrainian forces drove the enemy out of Zverove and almost completely regained control. (Report dated March 30th).
- This means the mapped Russian control (blue pins showing previous Russian line) has been pushed back southwest.
- As this news is recent (yesterday), it might be reflected in the next map updates.
Pokrovsk Front: Solone / Uspenivka Area - Intense Fighting & Bridge Destruction
🎦 26:28-28:49⏩
* Moving south/southwest again to the Udachne/Solone/Uspenivka area.
- Mapped changes show Ukrainians pushing Russians back (eastwards) near Udachne and Solone.
- Solone: Heavily contested.
- Claims state Ukrainian forces control most of Solone and have completely driven Russians out (making the area grey zone, as per Andrew Perpetua's map).
- Russians reportedly attacked/destroyed a bridge (using a Krasnopol laser-guided artillery shell) leading into Solone, allegedly used by Ukraine to transfer forces. Jonathan locates the likely area on the map.
- This destruction aims to hinder Ukrainian supply and further advances.
- Map updates show Ukrainians pushed back north of Solone, but Russians pushed back south of it ("six of one, half a dozen of the other" according to the map changes, but recent reports favour Ukraine).
- Jonathan notes the claim timing (March 29th for bridge destruction) versus current control (now likely Ukrainian/grey zone) might mean the bridge wasn't technically "behind Russian lines" when hit.
Pokrovsk Front: Uspenivka Activity & Positive Ukrainian Claims
🎦 28:49-30:34⏩
* Further southwest around Uspenivka:
- Reports state Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian infantry and Lada trucks in the area (Novopavlivsk direction).
- This suggests more Ukrainian control than Suriyak Maps indicates. Andrew Perpetua's map shows Uspenivka not under Russian control, with Ukraine controlling northern parts, aligning better with these reports.
- Overall Pokrovsk Direction (Very Recent Claim - Morning of 31/03):
- A positive claim states "Russian defence is collapsing in [the] Pokrovsk direction."
- This source shows wider Ukrainian control around Solone and suggests Ukraine is trying to link up advances near Kotlyne and Solone/Uspenivka to potentially cut off a large Russian salient.
Pokrovsk Front Assessment: Russian Reserves vs Ukrainian Capability
🎦 30:34-31:00⏩
* Jonathan notes this potential success but questions the broader context.
- Are Russians simply not reinforcing these lines because they are massing forces elsewhere for a major offensive?
- Or are they still feeding in reserves, but Ukraine currently has the advantage locally?
Southern Front (South of Pokrovsk towards Zaporizhzhia): Russian Advances
🎦 31:00-32:13⏩
* Jonathan observes that six days is a long time, reflected by many pink pins (Russian gains) along the southern front line.
- Russians appear to be pushing forward broadly, with both mappers agreeing in several places.
- The situation looks more challenging for Ukraine here than last time, when Jonathan thought Russian efforts might have culminated.
- While many southern gains are only claimed by Suriyak Maps (with significant disagreement shown by the shaded areas where Andrew Perpetua's blue line is much further back), Suriyak indicates significant Russian advances.
Southern Front: Andriivka / Kostiantynopil Counterattacks
🎦 32:13-34:10⏩
* Ukrainians are countering in Andriivka and Kostiantynopil, both previously important locations (logistics hubs).
- Blue pins around Andriivka on the map support claims of Ukrainian counterattacks pushing Russians back.
- A source (Raging545) confirms Ukrainian counterattacks near Kostiantynopil, stating they hold the southern part while the northern part is contested (grey zone).
- Suriyak Maps shows Russians controlling northern Kostiantynopil, which Jonathan doubts, trusting Andrew Perpetua more here.
- While Ukrainians might be pushing Russians back in Andriivka, attacking into urban areas is difficult and attritional. Jonathan notes the standard 3:1 attacker advantage needed, suggesting maybe even 9:1 is preferable for retaking urban areas. Defending is easier.
Southern Front: Relative Manpower and Attrition
🎦 34:10-34:51⏩
* Jonathan suggests Russia's ability to take urban areas relatively quickly previously was due to manpower advantages, sometimes claimed to be 10:1 in certain sectors.
- With such an advantage, taking towns becomes much easier, potentially overcoming the typical 3:1 loss ratio often cited for attackers. Overloading defences is key.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Malyshevka / Pyatykhatky / Lobkove Russian Gains
🎦 34:51-35:32⏩
* Further south towards Zaporizhzhia:
- Many Russian gains (pink pins) around the Malyshevka area, despite reports of a Ukrainian counterattack there previously. Russians seem to be advancing again.
- Russian gains also seen southwest around Pyatykhatky and Zhereb'yanky.
- Worryingly, Russians appear to have pushed north to reach Lobkove.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Potential Russian Offensive?
🎦 35:32-35:45⏩
* These gains fuel theories/claims that Russia is preparing a major attack in the Zaporizhzhia area, possibly targeting Orikhiv.
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Overall Frontline Assessment: Mixed Picture, Russian Momentum?
🎦 35:45-36:26⏩
* Jonathan summarises the overall picture as a "real mixed bag".
- Ukraine is trying to counterattack in several areas, but he doubts they have sufficient troops and materiel to make a significant difference currently, given the prevalence of Russian gains (pink pins) on the map over the past six days.
- This reverses the trend seen six days prior, where Ukrainian gains (blue pins) briefly outnumbered Russian ones for the first time in a long while.
- Although many recent Russian gains are per Suriyak Maps, Andrew Perpetua also shows Russian advances, suggesting a potential shift in momentum favouring Russia, reversing the previous signs of culmination.
Broader Strategic Questions: Reserves and Future Offensives
🎦 36:27-37:19⏩
* Jonathan reiterates the uncertainty surrounding Russia's intentions, given claims of preparations for a major 6-9 month offensive starting mid-to-late summer.
- If Russia can make current gains while stockpiling for a larger offensive, that is deeply worrying for Ukraine.
- He questions Ukraine's own reserve situation:
- Do they have reserves stacked up? What are they waiting for?
- The two brigades sent to Belgorod had minimal effect – was that enough? What was the goal?
- Or are they operating on a shoestring along the entire front?
- He invites viewer comments on these points.
Corrections & Additional Southern Front Notes
🎦 37:19-38:25⏩
* Jonathan realises he nearly finished too early and has more points.
- Minor Ukrainian gains reported along the southern frontline corner towards Donetsk (not detailed).
- Revisits the Malyshevka area (Zaporizhzhia front), confirming reports of a Ukrainian counterattack there on the 26th, but believes it didn't last long, with Russians now pushing back again.
- He notes that frontlines can change hands multiple times a day.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Updates
🎦 38:25-39:45⏩
* Jonathan shares insights from the ISW (American military think tank), sourced from his website ATPGEO.com:
- Borova Direction (NE Sector): A Ukrainian brigade reportedly repelled a Russian mechanised assault (Svatove-Kreminna axis), destroying 12 armoured vehicles and 1 tank. This reflects increased Russian attacks mentioned in his Hits and Losses videos.
- Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian drone operators are hindering Russian logistics with FPV drones as Russia intensifies attacks. He adds claims of Ukraine now having a 40km FPV drone range, making Russian logistics vulnerable much further behind lines.
- Russian Drone Development: Russia has reportedly deployed at least 30 new hand-launched 'Flyuk Fortuna' strike drones, costing ~$1,177 each, carrying 1.7kg payload with a 50km range. This shows Russia responding in the drone "cat and mouse game" with extended range capabilities.
Wrap up
🎦 39:45-39:46⏩
Jonathan signs off, saying that really is enough from him for now.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
`Wrap up
``
`
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
`
- Pre-computation/Analysis:
- Video Date: 31/03/2025 (Future date, but use as given).
- Key Locations: Kursk, Sumy, Belgorod, Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lypsti, Kupyansk), Svatove-Kreminna (Raihorodka, Pishchane, Sahivka, Novoiehorivka, Terny, Yampolivka), Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk/Avdiivka area (Shevchenko, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Zverove, Solone, Uspenivka), Southern Front (Andriivka, Kostiantynopil, Malyshevka, Pyatykhatky, Lobkove), Borova.
- Key Sources/Mappers: Jonathan Pearce (ATP), Suriyak Maps (pro-Russian), Andrew Perpetua (pro-Ukraine), Kyiv Independent, Deep State, BBC, OSINT channels (MAKS24, Grayskull, Endspiel, Raging545), ISW.
- Main Themes: 6-day update, map discrepancies (Perpetua vs Suriyak), Ukrainian gains/losses, Russian gains/losses, Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian advances, glide bombs, FPV drones, defensive lines (Prokrovsk area), potential Russian summer offensive, Ukrainian reserves.
- Execution Plan:
- Write TASK 1 XML.
- Go through transcript sequentially. Define topic boundaries, write titles (TASK 2), record timestamps (TASK 3), and write summaries (TASK 4) for each.
- Start with "Hello Team", end with "Wrap up".
- Pay attention to map source attribution in summaries.
- Correct identifiable errors (e.g., "Piz" -> "Pearce", "Syria/Surat/CERACMAP" -> "Suriyak Maps", "Max24" -> "MAKS24", place names).
- Select a quote (TASK 5).
- Finalise queries (TASK 6).
- Assemble final XML. Ensure correct tag closure.
- Refinement/Checks:
- Ensure all transcript content is covered by topics/timestamps.
- Check British English spelling/grammar.
- Verify Ukrainian place name spellings.
- Confirm specific/quantified topic titles.
- Ensure summaries capture Jonathan's analysis and tone.
- Double-check XML structure and tags.