Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Because the people are the most important, because everything is this war for the independence of the people, not of the land, of the people, because people it's really a nation and that's what makes a nation is the people not the land so it's more important that we don't lose people than we don't lose land."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a new year (2025!) and the first Ukraine War Update News video of the year. He reminds viewers that the daily update refers to the day before and to check the video description for the usual caveats about the figures.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses 31/12/2024
🎦 00:18-02:36⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the latest Russian losses from the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that the figures are lower than usual, perhaps due to it being New Year's Eve. 1,250 Russian personnel were lost, along with 4 tanks, 13 AFVs, and 4 artillery systems. One helicopter that was shot down yesterday (confirmed visually) has been added to the list, with a possible second helicopter (not caught on camera) expected to be added to the list tomorrow. 49 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks were also destroyed.
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Ukrainian Losses 31/12/2024
🎦 02:36-07:51⏩
Jonathan analyses Ukrainian losses from Andrew Perpetua's list, highlighting the loss of a Magura V5 drone, artillery pieces, Lancet and Vandal drones (the latter proving effective for the Russians currently). Eight Ukrainian tanks were also lost, including two Leopard 1A5s (one destroyed, one abandoned and subsequently hit by an FPV drone) and an M1 Abrams, the cause of which is unknown. Jonathan expresses concern over the loss of these tanks, questioning whether Ukraine can sustain these losses or rely solely on Leopard 1s. Additional losses include three infantry fighting vehicles (one Mardat 1A3, two BMP-1s), four APCs (including two M113s), a BVS10 (a Swedish articulated APC), two MRAPS, a Humvee and a Euro Vantac. Jonathan notes the overall loss ratio favours Ukraine, with roughly three Russian pieces of equipment lost for every one Ukrainian loss.
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Russian Losses 24/12/2024
🎦 07:51-10:59⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian losses, noting the high number of ATVs lost, mostly quads and some Desert Cross 1000-3 buggies. In terms of combat assets, one Buk M1-2 air defence system was destroyed, alongside two boats, a D20 artillery piece, and eight tanks. Of the tanks lost, five were tracked guard sheds - modified T-72s with limited combat capabilities. Jonathan suggests this highlights the possibility of tank shortages for Russia, forcing them to deploy less capable vehicles. Further losses include twenty infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-2s, BMP-1s and BTR-82s). Jonathan characterises this as a bad day for the Russians, despite Ukrainian losses, as they have lost crucial equipment, including the air defence system. He also observes that the Ukrainians have lost a higher number of tanks than usual. Jonathan then reviews the losses from 24th December, noting 171 Russian personnel losses. Ukrainian losses were light, with no tanks lost, and some artillery and support vehicles. Overall, the loss ratio on this day was 3:1 in favour of Ukraine.
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Helicopter Losses
🎦 10:59-13:20⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent downing of the Russian Mi-8 helicopter, reporting that the crew was killed. He mentions an intercepted mayday call from the helicopter, highlighting the emotional impact of hearing the crew's final words. He references sources confirming that a second Mi-8 helicopter was also damaged in the attack and later crashed, indicating a significant loss of experienced crew for Russia. Jonathan emphasizes that losing trained crews has a greater impact than losing the airframes themselves, as replacing skilled personnel takes time.
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Russian Missile Strike Failure
🎦 13:20-15:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's unsuccessful attempt to destroy Ukrainian HIMARS systems using expensive missiles, with a total cost estimated at $30 million. He references analysis by AMK Mapping, suggesting the Russians used three Iskander-M ballistic missiles with different warheads against a HIMARS unit near Kherson. The first missile missed completely, the second detonated cluster munitions in the vicinity, and the third, an airburst munition, detonated above the target, potentially causing some damage to the rear launchers. Although the imagery isn't conclusive, it appears the Russians failed to achieve a direct hit.
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Overnight Drone Attacks
🎦 15:46-18:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent drone attacks on Ukraine that occurred overnight on New Year's Eve, which he was unable to report on in his previous video due to unforeseen circumstances involving a trip to the theatre! He reports that Russia launched 111 drones, and despite causing damage in Kyiv, Ukraine claims to have intercepted all of them. 63 drones were shot down, 46 were disabled by electronic warfare and 2 went off course to Belarus and Russia. Jonathan highlights the significance of this 100% interception rate, achieved despite the challenges posed by falling debris. He explains that even when intercepted, drones can still cause damage as their explosive devices may detonate upon impact. Sadly, two people in Kyiv died as a result of falling drone debris.
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Jonathan's Rant
🎦 18:50-20:34⏩
Jonathan expresses his frustration with individuals and politicians in allied countries who criticise Ukraine's defence efforts while failing to condemn Russia's aggression. He specifically mentions Senator Mike Lee and others who downplay the severity of the situation, reminding them of the constant threat Ukrainians face from nightly bombings and attacks.
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Storm Shadow Missile Strikes
🎦 20:34-22:27⏩
Jonathan addresses the speculation surrounding potential Storm Shadow missile strikes on Russia, noting that despite widespread alarm and social media chatter, there are no confirmed reports of such attacks. He cites War Translator's claim of at least six Storm Shadow missiles hitting Lugov, resulting in eight Russian servicemen killed and 22 injured, but believes this refers to earlier strikes. He also notes the possibility of HIMARS being responsible for these strikes, as Lugov is within their range.
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Ukrainian Energy Security
🎦 22:27-23:36⏩
Jonathan commends Ukraine for successfully maintaining the integrity of its power grid throughout 2024, despite relentless Russian attacks. He attributes this achievement to the Ukrainian government's efforts and the support of international partners who contributed over €1 billion to the Ukrainian Energy Support Fund.
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Ukrainian Armed Forces Infographics
🎦 23:36-25:18⏩
Jonathan showcases infographics created by OSINTer Jeff2146, detailing the organisation and structure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He points out the various units depicted, noting that he has met some of the soldiers from those units and even owns badges from some. He encourages viewers to check out Jeff2146's work.
Kyrylo Budanov Interview
🎦 25:18-28:07⏩
Jonathan discusses an interview with Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukrainian Intelligence. Budanov asserts that Russia possesses sufficient resources to sustain the war at its current scale throughout 2025, however by 2025, their economy and financial sector will be nearing a critical point, requiring them to make difficult decisions. While this doesn't necessarily signify an imminent collapse, it will necessitate a shift in strategy. Budanov acknowledges the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones equipped with fibre optic cables, which circumvent electronic warfare countermeasures and pose a significant challenge for Ukraine.
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155th Brigade
🎦 28:07-33:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the concerning situation surrounding the 155th Brigade, a French-trained Ukrainian unit. Citing Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butasov, known for his often accurate but pessimistic outlook, the brigade suffers from organizational chaos, significant losses, mass desertions and questionable decision-making from higher command. 50 desertions occurred during their training in France, and by the time they were deployed, nearly 1,000 personnel had deserted. Butasov criticises the Ukrainian leadership for prioritizing the creation of new units instead of reinforcing existing ones, blaming them for the brigade's woes. The brigade, despite being well-equipped with tanks and armoured vehicles, lacked essential drone capabilities, rendering it vulnerable to Russian drone attacks and contributing to its substantial losses. Jonathan highlights the lack of drones as staggering, given Ukraine's understanding of their importance in modern warfare.
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Russian Economy
🎦 33:18-35:52⏩
Jonathan points out the declining Russian economy with the rouble plummeting to a new low of 113 to the dollar. He highlights the closure of the Gazprom pipeline to Slovakia, a decision that will cost Russia an estimated $6 billion and negatively impact Slovakia, Hungary and Ukraine. He believes Ukraine holds a stronger position in this situation, as Russia relies on selling its hydrocarbons. He also notes that Russia faces challenges from a new Chinese railway bypassing its territory, potential OPEC supply cuts, increased US hydrocarbon production and more targeted sanctions.
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy
🎦 35:52-36:41⏩
Jonathan shares a poignant statement by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, emphasizing the importance of protecting Ukrainian lives above all else. Zelenskyy believes that a nation is defined by its people, not its land.
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Alexandra
🎦 36:41-38:57⏩
Jonathan shares an inspiring story about Alexandra, a young Ukrainian gymnast who lost her leg in a Russian attack in 2022. Despite the trauma, she persevered, got a prosthetic leg and returned to gymnastics. He commends her strength and bravery.
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Wrap up
🎦 38:57-39:09⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by wishing everyone a Happy New Year, expressing hope for a positive year ahead, particularly for Ukraine.
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