Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Thermobaric Weapons, Ammo Shortages, & Planning Counters
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Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
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"Every military plan at every level of war is ruled by the clock."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces this Ukraine War Update Extra video which will cover thermobaric weapons, ammunition shortages, and planning considerations for offensives in 2023.
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Thermobaric weapons
- Video shows Russian TOS-1A thermobaric rockets being fired, with huge shockwaves
- Thermobaric weapons are fuel-air explosives that use oxygen from surrounding air to generate a high-temperature explosion
- They are significantly more powerful than conventional explosives of equal weight
- Thermobaric weapons can vaporise human bodies and the explosion can endure far longer than a conventional bomb
- Russia moving thermobaric weapons to certain fronts could indicate they are worried about losing that area
Europe's biggest rare earth metal deposit found in Sweden
- Not directly related to Ukraine war but relevant to larger geopolitical landscape
- Rare earth metals are used in electronics, including in weaponry
- China currently has a near monopoly on rare earth metals
- Finding a large deposit in Sweden is good news for Europe to reduce reliance on China, especially for weapons and electronics manufacturing
- Rare earth metals are also important for green technologies to address climate change
Mick Ryan thread on planning 2023 offensives (Part 1)
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan analyses how Russia and Ukraine might plan their 2023 offensives, considering:
- Purpose - For Russia: secure annexed territory, attrit Ukrainian forces, justify mobilisation. For Ukraine: clear Russians from all Ukrainian territory
- Design - Sequencing tactical goals to meet strategic objectives. Ukraine will seek to avoid Russia's mistakes of advancing on multiple fronts without clear main effort
- Timing - Ability to concentrate forces, weather, phases of moon, political considerations. Degrading enemy logistics and command & control
- Location - Where can most territorial gains be made? Terrain considerations - open or urban? Bypassing cities?
US training Ukrainians on Patriot air defence system & Bradley IFVs
- 100 Ukrainian troops have arrived in the US for training on the Patriot air defence system
- Training is expected to take several months
- US is also beginning training Ukrainians on Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles in Germany
- This training is expected to take weeks, not months, so Bradleys will be on the frontline quicker
Debating the definition of a "city"
Jonathan discusses the debate around referring to Soledar as a "city". In British English, a city traditionally must have a cathedral. Even large towns of 100,000+ people like Fareham near Portsmouth are not called cities. With a pre-war population of around 10,000, Jonathan argues Soledar should not be called a city, and doing so is an unsuccessful communication of what Soledar is actually like. Words matter for conveying meaning.
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Is Russia running out of artillery ammunition?
- US and Ukrainian officials say Russian artillery fire is down 75% from wartime high
- Russia using old ammunition and seeking supplies from North Korea/Iran suggests low stocks
- However, some analysts argue the evidence does not confirm critical shortages
- Possible explanations: smaller frontline so less artillery needed, adjusting tactics, ongoing production
- But pre-1991, much Soviet ammunition was produced in Ukraine, Belarus etc. which has now stopped
- Jonathan assesses the various arguments and concludes the evidence does point to Russian ammunition issues
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks his channel members for their support which allows him to continue making these videos. He encourages viewers to question everything, including their own assumptions and his analysis. Like, subscribe and share!
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