Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"The Russians are not targeting civilian infrastructure. Where the frick have you been for two years dude? ... You gargantuan sack of moldy toenails. Ah."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second Ukraine War update of the new year. It's a quiet news day, with fewer geopolitical happenings than usual - probably a result of it being so early in January.
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Ukraine: Zelensky Thanks Canada for NASAMS Support
🎦 00:45-01:44⏩
Zelensky expresses gratitude for Canada's willingness to provide additional NASAMS air defence systems and missiles to Ukraine.
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Military Aid: Discussion About Sea Baby Drones and Accuracy Issues
🎦 01:44-05:03⏩
Jonathan clarifies that the Sea Baby drones do indeed carry rocket launchers, refuting earlier claims that they were helicopters. He discusses the potential inaccuracy of unguided rockets on the drones, especially in choppy waters. Jonathan proposes the idea of equipping the drones with guided missiles like Brimstone and ponders the logistics of relaying signals for long-range strikes. He also highlights the increasing use of larger octocopter drones (Baba Yaga) by Ukrainians, capable of dropping multiple IEDs simultaneously for greater effectiveness.
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Norway: Policy Change Allows Direct Weapons Sales to Ukraine
🎦 06:14-07:14⏩
Norway has changed its policy to allow direct sales of weapons and defense products from Norwegian companies to Ukraine, eliminating the need for government-to-government agreements.
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Czech Republic: STV Group to Produce NATO-Standard Ammunition
🎦 07:14-08:56⏩
Czech company STV Group will start producing NATO-standard 155mm artillery ammunition at its Polika factory. Initially, the ammo will primarily go to Ukraine, but later production will focus on meeting the needs of the Czech armed forces as they receive new Caesar CZ 8x8 howitzers. STV has signed a deal for 60,000 shells and aims to double its current production capacity of 56,000 to 150,000 shells annually. The company will also produce other types of NATO-standard ammunition, including 120mm tank rounds and 30x173mm rounds for infantry fighting vehicles.
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Military Aid: US Funding for Ukraine Dries Up
🎦 08:56-14:04⏩
- US funding for Ukraine has decreased significantly since August, primarily due to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives stalling a new aid package. - The Daily Telegraph (UK right-wing newspaper) reports that this impasse could force Zelensky to make difficult choices about which Ukrainian cities to defend from air attacks. - Jonathan highlights a concerning trend: Republican support for aiding Ukraine has plummeted from 49% to 13% since the war began, with 48% now believing the US is giving too much. He attributes this shift to effective Russian disinformation campaigns and the amplification of these narratives by some American lawmakers.
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Geopolitics: Differing Views on US Support for Ukraine
🎦 14:04-20:19⏩
- Jonathan contrasts The Daily Telegraph's analysis with a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that questions whether the Biden administration genuinely wants Ukraine to win.
- The WSJ argues that the Biden administration's reluctance to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of striking targets in Crimea suggests a desire to force a "sordid deal" where Ukraine cedes territory to Russia.
- Jonathan disagrees with this assessment, believing the Biden administration's hesitation stems from a fear of escalation and a strategic need to preserve its own weapons stockpiles for other potential conflicts, such as a conflict involving Taiwan.
- He acknowledges that while the US has committed around $50 billion in military aid to Ukraine, much of it has been "one-dimensional", focusing on short-range weaponry and defensive systems. The administration has been reluctant to provide long-range weapons like ATACMS, even though the US possesses large stockpiles. He provides the examples of the UK and France providing Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles, respectively.
Geopolitics: European Concerns Over Potential Trump Return
🎦 20:19-26:52⏩
- International concern is growing over the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in 2024 and potentially withdrawing US support for Ukraine.
- The Times (UK right-wing newspaper) reports that European countries, including the UK, are urgently working to build their capacity to independently sustain Ukraine's defence against Russia should US support dwindle.
- Jonathan acknowledges that Trump has his supporters internationally but emphasises that Trump's global approval ratings were at record lows during his presidency and that his recent rhetoric echoes Russian propaganda.
- UK intelligence believes that neither Ukraine nor Russia has the military strength for a decisive victory in 2024. The focus, therefore, is shifting towards a long-term strategy of containing Russia and making the war unsustainable for Putin. He believes that at most, Russia could try to solidify its control over the land bridge to Crimea, but a full-scale takeover of Ukraine is highly unlikely without significant Chinese support, which is deemed improbable.
- While some in the UK government believe that time is on Ukraine's side, there is growing anxiety about Europe's ability to maintain its level of support without the US. Anonymous sources suggest that European nations are preparing for various scenarios, including a potential Trump victory.
Ukraine: The Times Cites Controversial Figure on Public Opinion
🎦 26:52-31:19⏩
- Jonathan expresses caution about a claim in The Times article, attributed to a controversial commentator named Mikhailo Chaplaya, that most Ukrainians desire a truce but are afraid to admit it. - He points out that Chaplaya has a history of promoting pro-Russian views and that official polls contradict his assertion. He notes critique from Twitter users, who accuse the Times of platforming Russian propaganda by quoting Chaplaya. Jonathan highlights the importance of scrutinizing sources and recognizing potentially biased narratives in news articles.
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US Politics: Nikki Haley's Stance on Ukraine
🎦 31:19-34:48⏩
- Jonathan shifts to Nikki Haley, a potential Republican presidential candidate, who, unlike Trump, expresses strong support for Ukraine. Haley criticises the Biden administration for not effectively communicating the importance of supporting Ukraine to the American public. She emphasizes that a Russian victory would embolden China and Iran, directly threatening US interests.
- Jonathan agrees with Haley's point about the need for better communication from the administration, particularly regarding the benefits of a Ukrainian victory for the US.
- Jonathan refutes Haley’s claim that the US has been giving untraceable cash to Ukraine, saying all funds are accounted for. He expresses concern that such unfounded statements contribute to public distrust.
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Russia: Recruiting Foreign Fighters
🎦 34:48-35:32⏩
- Jonathan briefly mentions Pekka Kallioniemi's report on a scheme to recruit Bangladeshi and Nepalese men as soldiers for Russia in Ukraine. He references an article from Nepal that calls on Moscow to stop using Nepali mercenaries.
Disinformation: Alex Jones's Claims About the War
🎦 35:32-38:56⏩
- Jonathan criticizes Alex Jones, the infamous conspiracy theorist, for spreading dangerous disinformation about the war in Ukraine. Jones, recently platformed by Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces, falsely claims that Russia is not targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and that any such attacks are a "desperate move" by Ukraine to draw NATO into the war.
- Jonathan strongly condemns Jones's rhetoric, calling it "egregious disinformation". He sees Jones's comments as particularly dangerous given his large audience of predominantly Republican-leaning individuals.
- Jonathan calls on viewers to actively challenge this kind of disinformation whenever they encounter it, highlighting the importance of critical thinking and media literacy.
Ukraine: Recent Russian Missile Strikes
🎦 38:56-40:05⏩
- In a quick update, Jonathan mentions that Ukraine seems to be retaliating against recent Russian attacks by striking targets in Belgorod, Russia. He notes that Polish planes patrolling the border have returned to base after a decrease in the threat level from Russian missiles, particularly after a recent incident where a Russian missile crossed into Polish airspace before returning to Ukraine.
- Zelensky, in response to continued Russian aggression, vows that Russia will be held accountable for every life lost. Jonathan acknowledges the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses, but points out the significant damage inflicted upon Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Wrap Up
🎦 40:05-40:11⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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