Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Orban, Hungary, China, Chechnya, & Compromise of US Politics

"It is naive to think that the same pattern does not exist in the United States, given the ample evidence of coordinated pro-Russian talking points being expressed on the Congress floor by fellow Republican politicians."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:12⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to an "extra nuggets and tidbits" Ukraine War update, focusing on three key subjects: Viktor Orban's Hungary, Chechnya, and potential political compromise in the US.

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Viktor Orban and Hungary's Shift Towards Authoritarianism

🎦 00:12-04:09⏩

Jonathan, citing Pekka Kalyaniemi's "Vaknik Soup," describes Viktor Orban's 14-year reign as Prime Minister of Hungary, highlighting concerns about democratic backsliding and Orban's pursuit of "illiberal democracy." He notes allegations of Orban's manipulation of the judiciary, media, and electoral system, supported by sourced articles from publications like the New Republic and Premier Orban. Jonathan emphasises Orban's cooperation with authoritarian regimes like the Kremlin, CCP, and Iran, citing reports of state spying on journalists using Pegasus spyware, suppression of press freedom, and gerrymandering to favour Orban's Fidesz party.

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Orban's Embrace of China and its Implications

🎦 04:09-19:23⏩

Jonathan delves into Orban's relationship with China, noting his embrace of the CCP regime and the influx of Chinese investment in Hungary since 2010. He points out the irony of Orban's popularity among US conservatives despite his close ties with China, citing examples like Orban's praise for the CCP's economic practices and hosting of the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) conference, which featured prominent US conservatives. Jonathan expresses concern over the security implications of Hungary, a NATO member, hosting Huawei's largest European logistics centre and Chinese police stations, particularly given the CCP's history of harassing overseas Chinese citizens. He highlights Hungary's blocking of EU statements condemning China's actions in the South China Sea and Hong Kong as evidence of potential CCP leverage, raising concerns about Hungary's reliability within the EU and NATO. Jonathan argues that Orban's actions compromise European unity, security, and the West's strategic objectives against China, creating a potential debt trap for Hungary and granting China undue influence within the EU.

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Chechnya and the Potential Fallout from Kadyrov's Ill Health

🎦 19:23-29:56⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Chechnya, discussing Ramzan Kadyrov's health issues and the potential implications of his failing health or death. Citing reports from Novaya Gazeta Europe, he details Kadyrov's alleged struggle with necrotising pancreatitis, kidney failure, and fluid buildup in his lungs. While acknowledging attempts by Chechen officials to downplay the severity of Kadyrov's condition, Jonathan highlights changes in Kadyrov's appearance and speech, suggesting a decline in his health. Jonathan examines potential successors, particularly Kadyrov's sons, Akhmat and Adam, and their recent appointments to significant positions within the Chechen government, noting the possibility of a power struggle within the Chechen Republic. He cites experts like Chambers, who believe that Kadyrov's inner circle could maintain control but that infighting is likely. He names Apti Alaudinov, Magomed Daudov, and Adam Delimkhanov as potential successors, analysing their strengths and weaknesses and the Kremlin's potential role in choosing Kadyrov's successor. Jonathan stresses the importance of a smooth transition of power for Russia to maintain stability in the region and avoid diverting resources from the Ukraine war.

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Russian Influence in US Politics and Concerns Over Compromise

🎦 29:56-42:23⏩

Jonathan discusses potential Russian influence operations in US politics, drawing parallels with documented Russian interference in European politics. He cites a New Republic article by a former CIA officer warning of a similar pro-Putin corruption network in the US, highlighting Republican politicians echoing Russian talking points. Jonathan criticizes Marjorie Taylor Greene's stance on Ukraine, suggesting her comments align with Kremlin propaganda. He references a 2021 report from the Director of National Intelligence detailing Russian attempts to influence US officials and media figures through proxies, expressing concern over the lack of media attention given to these findings. Jonathan raises concerns over potential financial links between Russian entities and US politicians, citing examples like Andrew Intrator's donations to Trump's campaigns and the Texas-based firm with Russian ownership donating to Mike Johnson. He draws parallels with Russia's financial support of Marine Le Pen's party in France, suggesting a pattern of Russian attempts to influence right-wing political movements. Jonathan criticises the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision for enabling opaque political donations, noting a potential for quid pro quos to remain hidden. He expresses concern over House Republicans' opposition to Ukraine aid and Trump's proposed Ukraine peace plan, which aligns with Russian interests and was previously suggested by Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign chairman with ties to Russian intelligence. Jonathan highlights the Heritage Foundation's involvement in "Project 2025," Trump's alleged plan for consolidating power if elected, expressing deep concern over its implications. He alleges that the Heritage Foundation, despite its initial pro-Ukraine stance, has shifted towards pro-Russian positions, potentially due to influence from funders with ties to Hungary and Russia. Jonathan references his own article "Carson Heritage, Russia Followed the Money," which explores these connections and the resignation of Lieutenant General Retired Thomas Spurr from the Heritage Foundation over these concerns. He contrasts this with the American Enterprise Institute's differing stance on Ukraine, attributing it to their close relationship with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the danger of assuming the US is immune to Russian influence operations, urging vigilance and further investigation into the extent of Russian influence.

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Wrap up

🎦 42:23-42:29⏩

Jonathan encourages viewers to share their thoughts on the discussed topics, thanks them for watching, and signs off.

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