Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update, focusing on overnight news and other developments in the Ukraine War. He notes that the Ukrainian General Staff figures show some "incredible" losses for the Russians.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Extraordinary Russian Losses
🎦 00:18-01:16⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, highlighting the significant losses suffered by Russian forces. He points out that the reported 2,010 personnel lost in a single day is "extraordinary," exceeding the previous highest daily figure of 2,200. The loss of 141 vehicles and fuel tanks is also described as "massive," surpassing the previous high of 181. He emphasizes that these losses are a testament to the ongoing Ukrainian efforts to inflict attrition on the invading forces.
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Visually Confirmed Losses
🎦 01:16-02:40⏩
Jonathan examines visually confirmed losses from the 28th of December, as reported by Andrew Perpetua's team. He notes the high number of Russian personnel losses (203) and observes that Ukrainian losses of combat assets are proportionately lower. He emphasizes the importance of considering civilian vehicles and ATVs, repurposed for combat, in assessing Russian losses, attributing the high figure of 141 vehicles and fuel tanks lost in a single day to this practice.
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Ukrainian Equipment Losses (28th December)
🎦 02:40-03:43⏩
Jonathan details Ukrainian equipment losses, noting a Leopard 2A4 tank damaged, several T-64 tanks destroyed and damaged, and a mix of destroyed and damaged BMP-1s, APCs, and a British FV103 Spartan. He highlights the prevalence of Western-supplied equipment among the losses, particularly APCs and MRAPs (Mine Resistant Ambush Protection Vehicles), including an Australian Bushmaster, a Canadian Senator MRAP, and Turkish Kurpis.
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Upcoming US Aid Packages
🎦 03:43-04:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the announcement of substantial US aid packages for Ukraine, including a $15 billion package funded by frozen Russian assets. He speculates that these funds could be used to procure military equipment and supplies, potentially including Strykers and Bradley Fighting Vehicles, which are anticipated to be sent to Ukraine soon.
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Russian Equipment Losses (28th December)
🎦 04:25-05:05⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed Russian equipment losses, including boats, artillery pieces, and various vehicles. He highlights the fact that most of the equipment losses are categorized as destroyed, abandoned, or captured, representing irretrievable losses for the Russians. He interprets this as positive news for the Ukrainians, indicating their effectiveness in neutralizing enemy equipment.
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Russian "Tracked Garden Sheds"
🎦 05:05-06:34⏩
Jonathan discusses the use of improvised armored vehicles by Russian forces, referring to them as "tracked garden sheds" due to their crude construction. He describes them as damaged tanks, covered with corrugated iron and metal sheeting, with limited functionality. Jonathan notes that these vehicles are often deployed in the vanguard of attacks, sometimes equipped with mine rollers. He critiques this approach as "suboptimal" and indicative of Russian desperation for armored personnel carriers (APCs) or their inability to repair damaged tanks effectively.
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Further Russian Losses
🎦 06:34-07:05⏩
Jonathan continues his analysis of Russian equipment losses, noting a dozen IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles), including BMP-1s and BMP-2s, as well as six APCs (Armored Personnel Carriers). He also mentions the destruction of civilian vehicles repurposed for military use, such as cars, motorcycles, pickups, and even a golf buggy.
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Ratio of Losses
🎦 07:05-07:15⏩
Jonathan acknowledges that Ukraine is losing equipment at a far lower rate than Russia, but raises the critical question of whether the current ratio of losses remains sustainable for Ukraine in the long run.
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Death of a Russian Footballer
🎦 07:15-07:54⏩
Jonathan reports the death of Alexei Bugaev, a former Russian international footballer, in the Ukraine war. Bugaev, who had been sentenced to nine years in prison for drug offences, chose to join the fighting in Ukraine and was subsequently killed.
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Guided Bomb Usage
🎦 07:54-08:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the increasing use of guided bombs in the conflict, citing footage of a Russian command center in Zaporizhzhia destroyed by a guided bomb. He expresses interest in understanding the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian guided bomb usage, given the effectiveness of the Ukrainian side.
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French & US Guided Bombs
🎦 08:17-09:05⏩
Jonathan elaborates on the types of guided bombs being employed by Ukraine, highlighting the use of French-supplied guided bombs and American GBU-39 bombs. He speculates that the upcoming delivery of Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets to Ukraine could lead to an even greater utilization of guided bombs in future operations.
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Sabotage of Russian Infrastructure
🎦 09:05-11:16⏩
Jonathan reports on the destruction of Russian telecommunications equipment in occupied Donetsk, attributing the act to Ukrainian sabotage. He cites a report from Dajins.com detailing a series of sabotage operations carried out by the GUR (Ukrainian military intelligence) targeting Russian communication networks and logistical capabilities in both occupied Ukrainian territory and within Russia itself. The report highlights the destruction of four Phoenix telecom sites in Donetsk, disruption of cellular communication infrastructure in Russia's Leningrad region, and attacks on freight trains and railway infrastructure in various locations, including Moscow, Voskresensk, Yaroslavl, Ulyanovsk, Krasnodar, and Bryansk. Jonathan emphasizes the pattern of these events and the GUR's intensified efforts to disrupt Russian operations.
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Trains on Fire in Moscow
🎦 11:16-11:56⏩
Jonathan shares information, attributed to Andrew Perpetua, about two trains catching fire in Moscow. He presents this incident as potentially linked to the ongoing sabotage campaign, acknowledging the possibility of alternative explanations but emphasizing the significance of such events occurring in the heart of Russia.
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Drone Interception
🎦 11:56-12:38⏩
Jonathan discusses overnight drone attacks, citing information from Tim White that Ukrainian air defense achieved a 100% interception rate, shooting down 21 out of 43 attack drones and electronically jamming another 22. He notes that wreckage from intercepted drones affected Kharkiv and Odesa.
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Russian Decoy Drones
🎦 12:38-13:41⏩
Jonathan delves into the use of decoy drones by Russia, highlighting that many of the attacking drones lack warheads. He reasons that this tactic is a cost-saving measure, enabling Russia to produce and deploy drones more quickly while also depleting Ukrainian interceptor munitions. While acknowledging the effectiveness of decoys, Jonathan asserts that Russia would undoubtedly prefer to utilize drones equipped with warheads if they possessed the financial and logistical capacity to do so. He concludes that the use of decoys underscores the limitations faced by Russia in terms of resources and production.
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Drone Attacks on Russian Infrastructure
🎦 13:41-14:10⏩
Jonathan reports on drone attacks targeting a locomotive depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast, which he links to the broader sabotage campaign against Russian infrastructure. He notes that Russian authorities claimed to have intercepted multiple drones in the Salsk and Ust-Donetsk areas, downplaying the extent of damage. Despite this, Jonathan highlights the targeting of railway infrastructure as significant.
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Ukrainian Peklo Missile Drone
🎦 14:10-16:07⏩
Jonathan discusses the reported use of a Ukrainian-made Peklo missile drone in an attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia. He cites a Russian source claiming that the drone targeted a technical building at the pipeline facility, causing partial destruction but leaving the pipeline itself undamaged. Jonathan notes that this section of the pipeline is crucial for oil deliveries to Europe. He speculates on the accuracy of the Peklo drone, comparing it to the Trembita missile drone, another Ukrainian-developed system known for its affordability but potentially lower precision. He ponders whether the damage to the technical building instead of the pipeline itself was intentional or a result of limited accuracy or effective Russian air defense.
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Russian Officer Orders Shooting of Colleagues
🎦 16:07-16:35⏩
Jonathan shares a disturbing report from Tim White, citing the Astrid Telegram channel, about a Russian officer ordering subordinates to shoot their colleagues in the legs for refusing to fight. Those who refused were allegedly thrown into a basement and face prosecution for disobeying orders. Jonathan expresses shock and disbelief at the brutality of this incident, characterizing it as indicative of the dire situation within the Russian ranks.
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Rejection of Trump's Peace Proposal
🎦 16:35-17:47⏩
Jonathan transitions to discussing peace proposals, revealing that Russia has rejected a proposal put forward by Donald Trump. He mentions that the proposal, which included a 20-year postponement of Ukraine's NATO membership and the deployment of Western peacekeepers, has been dismissed by both Sergey Lavrov and Dmitry Peskov. Jonathan also highlights an article in The Daily Beast, noting that Russian propagandists are capitalizing on Trump's recent statements about expanding US territory (such as taking Greenland, Panama, Canada, etc.) to justify Russia's own expansionist actions in Ukraine.
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US Incoming Administration and Peace Talks
🎦 17:47-18:24⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about the international implications of Trump's rhetoric and acknowledges the challenges facing the incoming US administration in navigating peace talks. He notes that the Russian rejection of Trump's proposal, while potentially part of a larger negotiation strategy, highlights the difficult path ahead.
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Azerbaijan Plane Downing Incident
🎦 18:24-20:07⏩
Jonathan revisits the incident involving the downing of an Azerbaijani plane by Russian forces, emphasizing the assertive response from the Azerbaijani president. He reads a quote from the president expressing frustration with Russia's initial silence, attempts to cover up the incident, and "absurd theories" about a gas cylinder explosion. The president criticizes Russia for not taking responsibility, apologizing, and informing the public in a timely manner, especially given Azerbaijan's status as a friendly country.
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Azerbaijan's Geopolitical Significance
🎦 20:07-21:13⏩
Jonathan analyzes the geopolitical implications of the incident, highlighting Azerbaijan's strategic importance to Russia. He notes that with Armenia seeking closer ties to the West and Georgia facing internal divisions over its relationship with Russia, the Kremlin cannot afford to alienate Azerbaijan. He interprets the Azerbaijani president's strong rhetoric as a sign of strained relations and a potential wedge being driven between Russia and its allies.
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Russian Hybrid Warfare Activities
🎦 21:13-22:08⏩
Jonathan discusses a map shared by Igor Sushko, which depicts suspected and attributed Russian hybrid warfare operations since February 2022. This map, compiled by the US Helsinki Commission, reveals the extent of Russian activities targeting Europe and the United States, including attacks on critical infrastructure, violence campaigns, weaponized migration, and election interference. Jonathan criticizes the lack of adequate response to these actions, particularly from the US, which is simultaneously grappling with domestic political divisions over its support for Ukraine.
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Russian Tanker Damages Undersea Cables
🎦 22:08-23:36⏩
Jonathan reports on a suspected act of Russian sabotage involving the tanker Eagle S. According to reports, the tanker, carrying Russian oil, is suspected of severing an undersea power cable (S-Link-2) between Finland and Estonia and four communication cables in late December. Finnish authorities detained the vessel and discovered a dragging track on the seabed, indicating the possibility of an anchor deliberately used to damage the cables. The crew, consisting of Georgian and Indian nationals, is currently being questioned. Jonathan raises concerns about Russia's actions and the lack of consequences for such behavior.
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Russian Ruble Tanks Again
🎦 23:36-24:08⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Russian economy, reporting that the ruble is experiencing another sharp decline after a brief period of artificial stabilization. He notes that the ruble has plummeted to 112 rubles per US dollar, indicating severe economic stress.
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Ukrainian Cultural Shift Away from Russia
🎦 24:08-25:03⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of the war on Ukrainian cultural identity, citing a statement from Anton Drobovych, former head of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory. Drobovych asserts that only 15-30% of Ukrainians remain connected to Russian language and culture, a significant decrease attributed to the war. Jonathan interprets this as a positive development, suggesting that the potential voter base for pro-Russian politicians has been significantly eroded.
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Ukraine Offers War Crimes Expertise to Syria
🎦 25:03-26:56⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian foreign minister's visit to Syria, during which he pledged increased food aid and offered to share expertise in investigating and prosecuting war crimes. Jonathan views this as both political opportunism and a strategic move to strengthen ties with a country that has also suffered under Russian aggression. He suggests that Ukraine aims to leverage its experience to counter Russian influence in Syria, potentially securing strategic benefits in return for aid and support.
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Wrap up
🎦 26:56-27:32⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, acknowledging their contributions to the Carpe Ukraine campaign. He expresses his goal of reaching 50,139 subscribers by January 2nd, acknowledging that it's a long shot but remaining optimistic. He signs off with a reminder to subscribe and a cheerful farewell.
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"SUVs are the new APCs. It's that simple as far as I'm concerned."
