Ukraine General Staff Russian Loss Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
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"I think this, although it's quite gradual, this is actually really significant... they are just losing really significant numbers of vehicles and when you look at the exact types of vehicles they're starting to lose a lot of civilian vehicles and that's because they've run out of military vehicles"
Hello Team!
Jonathan reviews the latest Russian loss figures from the Ukrainian General Staff using Dell's spreadsheet (available in the video description). He notes the caveats that the figures may not be entirely accurate but are the best available. The data was provided by a commenter, Michael Hertig, who promised to update the August figures.
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Personnel Losses
The graph shows spikes in Russian personnel losses during the Bakhmut offensive and the Kherson and Kharkiv counter-offensives. Recent losses have been lower but with some spikes at the beginning of the current counter-offensive. The overall trend line is downwards from the peak of the Bakhmut losses.
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Tank Losses
Tank losses were very high at the start of the war and during the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensives. Recent losses have been consistent but slightly higher than in April and May. Jonathan notes that the types of tanks being lost are older, suggesting Russia may be conserving newer tanks or running low on them.
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Armoured Personnel Vehicle (APV) Losses
APV losses have been consistently high throughout the war, with huge spikes at the beginning and during counter-offensives. Recent losses remain high, indicating consistently bad losses for Russia over the last six months.
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Artillery Losses
Artillery losses increased dramatically from April onwards as Ukraine focused on degrading Russian artillery. The steep gradient of the graph from April reflects the success of this strategy. Ukraine has had to rely on this approach in the absence of air superiority, using long-range systems like HIMARS and self-propelled guns. Degrading Russian artillery is taking much longer than it would with air supremacy.
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Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) Losses
MLRS losses have been fairly consistent with some peaks and troughs. There was an increase during the counter-offensive as Ukraine targeted these systems. A recent dip may indicate Russia is running low on these systems.
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Anti-Aircraft System Losses
Anti-aircraft system losses fit the pattern of artillery losses, with Ukraine focusing on degrading Russian air defences from a distance. Recent losses are significantly higher than at any previous point in the war, representing a "purple patch" for Ukraine.
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Aircraft Losses
Aircraft losses were high at the beginning of the war due to Russia's failure to effectively suppress Ukrainian air defences. Since then, Russia has used its air force very cautiously, with only occasional losses on specific days.
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Helicopter Losses
There was an uptick in Russian helicopter losses, particularly Ka-52 attack helicopters, during the counter-offensive as they tried to support ground troops. Jonathan speculates that the recent decrease in losses may indicate Russia is using them more cautiously or running low on airframes or crews.
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Drone Losses
Russian drone losses, mainly Shahed drones, peaked in May. The graph suggests Russia received stockpiles of drones at intervals, used them, and then had a lull before the next delivery. Recent decreases in drone use, despite the ongoing need to strike targets, suggest Russia may be running low on drones or is only using them at the rate they are being imported or produced.
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Cruise Missile Usage
Cruise missile usage shows a similar pattern to drones, with periods of intensive use followed by lulls. The decrease in large-scale attacks, despite the ongoing need to strike Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets, suggests Russia is running low on cruise missiles. Jonathan speculates that the recent revenge attack on Kyiv after the Crimea drone strikes was a knee-jerk reaction that sacrificed 28 missiles Russia would have preferred to conserve.
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Vehicle and Fuel Tank Losses
While vehicle and fuel tank losses don't show a dramatic change on the graph, Jonathan argues this is a significant category. After high losses at the start of the war and during counter-offensives, the recent gradual increase in losses is noteworthy. Russia is losing increasing numbers of civilian vehicles, suggesting they are running out of military logistics vehicles. This trend could significantly impact Russia's ability to support its troops along the defensive lines.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks Dell for maintaining the spreadsheet and Michael for counting the monthly losses. He appreciates their efforts in providing this valuable data.
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