Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukrainians are dying without Patriot systems, does this concern anyone?" - Dmytro Kuleba
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:47⏩
Jonathan kicks off the update by thanking viewers for their support and acknowledging Mark and Olena for gifts of a new Ukrainian shirt and scarf. He encourages viewers to check out his interview with Sean Pinner, a British soldier captured and tortured by Russian forces. Finally, he mentions there's a significant amount of content today, including a standalone military aid video due to proposed aid by Mike Johnson.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - High Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 00:47-02:49⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting that personnel losses are over 900 - higher than the recent average. He speculates that while the front line is relatively calm overall, the high losses might result from intense fighting in specific areas like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novomykolaivka. He also observes that the equipment losses are lower than usual, potentially aligning with his theory of a calmer frontline.
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Oryx - Significant Russian Equipment Losses and Sustainability Concerns
🎦 02:49-06:30⏩
Shifting to Oryx's visually confirmed loss data, Jonathan highlights the consistent 3:1 loss ratio favouring Russia over the past few days. However, he points out that Ukrainian losses remain manageable, lacking high-value targets. Conversely, Russian losses, while individually insignificant, present a problem in their sheer volume (12,507 vehicles since July 2023 alone!). Jonathan emphasises the unsustainability of such losses for Russia if their military-industrial complex cannot keep up with replacements, potentially affecting their offensive capabilities and impacting their frontline behaviour.
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Baba Yaga Drones: Ukrainian Ambush & Effectiveness
🎦 06:30-08:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of Ukrainian octocopter "Baba Yaga" drones, specifically referencing an incident where 8-12 drones wiped out an entire Russian platoon in seconds. He praises their capacity to carry multiple munitions, highlighting their impact when dropping incendiary or thermobaric bombs. Jonathan emphasises the psychological advantage Ukraine possesses due to the fear these drones inspire in Russian troops.
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Ukrainian Drone Operator Skill - Artillery Targetting
🎦 08:54-11:08⏩
Continuing on the topic of drone warfare, Jonathan showcases a video from "Magia", a prominent Ukrainian drone unit commander operating in the Crinky area. The video demonstrates the impressive precision of Ukrainian drone operators by showcasing a drone navigating inside a covered area to target a Russian artillery piece.
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Ukrainian Birds Attack Russian Drone!
🎦 11:08-11:16⏩
In a lighter moment, Jonathan shares footage of Ukrainian magpies attacking a Russian drone, jokingly praising the "wildlife fighting back".
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SBU Destroys Russian Nebo-U Radar in Bryansk
🎦 11:16-12:12⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian SBU's claim of destroying a Russian Nebo-U radar in the Bryansk region using kamikaze drones. This $100 million loss, while unverified with visual evidence, signifies a substantial blow to Russia's capabilities, as this long-range radar allowed them to track missiles and planes up to 700km into Ukraine. Jonathan underscores the importance of targeting such high-value assets for Ukraine.
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Russian "Turtle Tank" With Makeshift Armour & EW Systems
🎦 12:12-13:46⏩
Jonathan showcases a Russian tank modified with metal plates (resembling corrugated iron) and electronic warfare (EW) systems as makeshift armour. While finding humour in the seemingly rudimentary design, he acknowledges its potential effectiveness in countering drones and EW threats. He speculates this might indicate the dire state of Russian equipment repair capabilities, forcing them to improvise.
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Zelensky: Ukraine Cannot Win Without US Assistance
🎦 13:46-16:43⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's increasingly direct pleas for US assistance, highlighting his recent statement: "Ukraine will not have a chance to win the war without the assistance of the United States." Jonathan interprets this as a sign of desperation, with Zelensky acknowledging the dire situation on the frontline, particularly the 1:10 artillery disparity and 1:30 aviation ratio heavily favouring Russia. He points out the devastating impact of Russian guided glide bombs ("KABs"), emphasizing the urgent need for Ukraine to counter this growing threat.
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Overnight Strikes and Explosions
🎦 16:43-18:47⏩
Jonathan covers the relatively quiet night in terms of Shahed drone and missile attacks, attributing this to his ongoing theory that Russia is limited by its production and procurement capabilities. He also reports on the following:
- 9 out of 9 Shahed drones shot down, demonstrating excellent Ukrainian interception rates.
- Continued Russian shelling in the Sumy region, potentially including guided glide bombs.
- An unconfirmed explosion reported in Poltava.
- A missile attack on a Russian command centre in Crimea, potentially targeting senior officers. Details are yet to be confirmed.
Zelensky: Russian Missile Attack on Trapilska Power Plant
🎦 18:47-20:02⏩
Jonathan provides details about the Russian missile attack on the Trapilska thermal power plant, which was severely damaged. Zelensky has revealed that Russia launched 11 missiles at the plant, of which Ukraine shot down seven. The remaining four missiles hit the plant, causing significant damage. This attack highlights Ukraine's limited air defense resources and the vulnerability of their energy infrastructure.
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Ukraine Increases Neptune Missile Range & Production
🎦 20:02-22:45⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that Ukraine will significantly increase the range of its R-360 Neptune anti-ship missiles to 1000km and boost production tenfold. This has sparked speculation that Ukraine might use these enhanced missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia, including oil refineries. While Jonathan acknowledges the potential effectiveness of such strikes, he cautions that the missiles' navigation systems, primarily designed for use over water, might not be as accurate over land, risking civilian casualties. This development points toward a potential shift in Ukraine's offensive capabilities, especially if they choose to target strategic Russian infrastructure.
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US Pressure on Ukraine to Refrain from Striking Russian Oil Refineries
🎦 22:45-29:38⏩
Jonathan delves into the ongoing debate surrounding US pressure on Ukraine to refrain from striking Russian oil refineries. He presents various theories explaining the US stance, including:
- Economic Concerns: Strikes could increase global oil prices, negatively impacting the US economy and potentially harming Biden's re-election chances.
- Big Oil Lobbying: Jonathan suggests the influence of powerful oil corporations like Chevron and ExxonMobil, whose reliance on Russian pipelines for Kazakh oil might be motivating them to lobby against refinery strikes.
Jonathan speculates that Zelensky might be complying with US pressure, prioritising continued American support over the potential benefits of striking refineries. He cites reports of Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan directly conveying this message to Ukrainian officials. Despite Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's assertion that refinery strikes minimally impact global oil markets, Jonathan believes the "big oil" lobbying theory holds significant weight in understanding the US position.
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Russia Considers Low-Quality Gasoline Production to Counter Refinery Strikes
🎦 29:38-33:48⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to Reuters, Russia is considering a return to producing lower-quality gasoline to compensate for shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on their refineries. This move, potentially involving the use of environmentally damaging additives, raises concerns about potential damage to vehicles and further strain on the already sanctioned Russian economy. However, Jonathan also notes a report from Euromaidan Press suggesting that Russia has managed to repair some of the damaged refineries, indicating potential resilience in their oil infrastructure.
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Dam Collapse in Tomsk, Russia, Adds to Flooding Woes
🎦 33:48-35:03⏩
Adding to Russia's troubles, Jonathan reports on the collapse of a dam in Tomsk, further exacerbating the country's widespread flooding problems. These ongoing disasters will likely strain Russian resources and finances, potentially diverting funds from the war effort and increasing discontent among the population.
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Ukraine Starts Construction of New Nuclear Power Units
🎦 35:03-38:47⏩
In a positive development for Ukraine, Jonathan reports that construction has begun on two new power units at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, using American Westinghouse technology. This move towards increasing nuclear power capacity could grant Ukraine more energy security in the long term, as nuclear plants are less vulnerable to Russian attacks. Jonathan also speculates on the potential for Ukraine to invest further in renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. This diversification would make it more difficult and costly for Russia to disrupt Ukraine's energy grid. He suggests that moving away from large, centralised power stations to more dispersed and smaller-scale energy production could provide a more resilient energy infrastructure for Ukraine in the future.
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Other Notable Developments
🎦 38:47-40:23⏩
- Grain Corridor Negotiations: Reuters reports that Ukraine pulled out of negotiations with Russia and Turkey regarding a deal to secure merchant shipping in the Black Sea. The reasons for Ukraine's withdrawal remain unclear.
- Russian Command Changes: Russia has reportedly fired the commander of its 18th Army and the 70th Regiment due to their failure to recapture territories around Kherson's Krinky and Zaporizhzhia's Robotyne during Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive.
- Potential Russian Gains near Bakhmut: The ISW warns that Russian forces might achieve gains west of Bakhmut if US military aid to Ukraine is delayed, highlighting the critical importance of timely military assistance.
Wrap up
🎦 40:23-40:53⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by acknowledging its slightly longer runtime and bids farewell to his viewers.
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