Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"The only way to stop this war and bring about peace...is for me not to help and to let him beat her up and steal her purse and leave her bloody body on the floor."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:46⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel and warns that today's video is a bit of a marathon because there's so much to cover. As always, he reminds viewers that they can listen to the video at a faster speed (1.5x) which can also help remove any "ums" and "ahhs".
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UN Secretary General corrects statement on strikes
🎦 00:46-01:38⏩
Jonathan corrects his report from the previous day about UN Secretary General Spokesman, Stefan Dujaric, criticising Ukraine for striking oil refineries in Russia. Dujaric has since clarified that this was due to a misunderstanding and condemned the hitting of all civilian infrastructure.
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US expects Russia to back UN resolution banning nuclear weapons in space
🎦 01:38-02:31⏩
The White House has said it expects Russia to support a UN Security Council resolution to ban the placement of nuclear weapons in orbit. US National Security Council Spokesperson, John Kirby noted, "We have heard President Vladimir Putin say that Russia has no intention to deploy nuclear weapons in space. There should be no reason why not [to vote in favour]." Jonathan notes that whilst this might sound like something from a James Bond film it is important.
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Portugal drops its opposition to Ukraine joining the EU
🎦 02:31-03:09⏩
There's good news for Ukraine with the announcement that Portugal's new government is in full support of Ukraine joining the EU. The country's Foreign Minister, Paolo Rangel, described this as a change from the "ambiguous" stance of the previous administration.
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Ukraine facing a new threat: European elections and the rise of the far-right
🎦 03:09-17:45⏩
Jonathan expresses significant concern over the upcoming June elections for the European Parliament and the threat posed by a surge in support for far-right parties across Europe. He believes this is a bigger challenge for Ukraine than a potential second Trump term in 2024. He cites a recent report from the ISW which argues that Russia can only win in Ukraine if it also wins in the information space and political arenas. Russia needs to create discord in Europe, particularly within its political systems and public discourse, so that support for Ukraine dwindles. This is something that deeply worries Jonathan. He notes that this is something that is already being discussed in the UK media - citing a recent podcast from the Daily Telegraph. They argue that Ukraine faces a new existential threat - not from Russia this time, but from Europe - specifically the threat of a strong performance of far-right parties in the June elections which could damage the EU's support of Ukraine. Jonathan highlights that these parties have already seen electoral success in countries such as Portugal and the Netherlands, and are in government in Hungary, Italy and Finland. Worryingly, they are leading in the polls in Austria and Belgium, and could even win in France and Poland. Many of these parties want to see an end to EU military aid to Ukraine, and the removal of sanctions against Russia. Jonathan points out that a similar pattern occurred in the UK with Brexit, where it proved harder to campaign for the status quo. Voters weren't engaged enough to stand up for the benefits of EU membership and instead were drawn to negative, simplistic messages, particularly those focused on immigration. He fears that this could happen again across Europe if voters fail to appreciate the security and prosperity that the EU provides. He argues that these parties often promote divisive narratives and adversarial approaches, which has contributed to a normalisation of fringe views. This is dangerous because it allows for the rise of the kind of toxic thinking that enables imperialism. Jonathan highlights the comments made by a far-right politician in Belgium who, whilst acknowledging that Putin is a "bad guy", goes on to argue that the West should stop sending weapons to Ukraine. He likens this to refusing to help an old lady being mugged in the street. He finds this view both morally repugnant and deeply worrying because it essentially gives a free pass to aggressors like Putin to do whatever they want. Jonathan is incandescent with rage. He calls on European voters who are pro-Ukraine to think carefully about who they vote for in June, arguing that these far-right, nationalist parties are not the answer. To underline this point, he shares an anecdote about a MAGA representative from Maine questioning what the Nazis actually did that was illegal. The segment concludes with a quote from Benjamin Haddad who, on returning from Kyiv and Odesa, stresses that Europe is at an existential turning point. Haddad argues that if the US is no longer prepared to underwrite European security, and Ukraine is forced into a disadvantageous peace deal with Russia, the consequences will be disastrous. Haddad argues that Europe needs to step up and provide Ukraine with the military means to win the war.
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US House GOP: Rumours of resignations
🎦 19:39-20:23⏩
Moving on from Europe, Jonathan discusses the rumour that more Republicans may be about to resign from the US House of Representatives. This is significant because it could shift the balance of power in the House. Jonathan quotes Thomas Kane, who argues that these Republicans face a choice: resign and allow the Democrats to take control, or stay on and be remembered as the "Nazi-like Republicans who tried to destroy democracy for Trump." Jonathan acknowledges that this is strong rhetoric, but given some of the statements coming from certain GOP members, it does make you wonder.
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Jake Sullivan: Anti-escalation stance is holding back US aid to Ukraine
🎦 20:23-24:11⏩
Jonathan argues that the Biden administration's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, is another problem for Ukraine. He believes that Sullivan's overly cautious stance on escalation is preventing the US from providing Ukraine with the level of military support it needs. Jonathan quotes Colby Badhwar who suggests that Sullivan needs to get a grip and that his “mental state should be checked" for falling for Putin's nuclear blackmail. Jonathan agrees with Mike McCaul that Sullivan is being too timid by withholding military aid due to fears it could provoke a nuclear response from Russia. He contends that this view is not supported by intelligence reports, which indicate that Russia is unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons. Jonathan acknowledges that fear of nuclear escalation has shaped US policy for decades, but believes that Sullivan is wrong on this issue. He contends that this over-caution has delayed the delivery of essential military equipment, such as ATAKUMS and F-16s, to Ukraine. He would prefer to see someone like Blinken in the role.
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Olaf Scholz: Another obstacle to greater military support for Ukraine?
🎦 24:12-24:53⏩
Jonathan turns his attention to Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, arguing that, like Jake Sullivan, Scholz's main priority appears to be avoiding escalation and a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Jonathan quotes Anna Palacio, former Foreign Minister of Spain, who accuses Scholz of essentially being led by the US when it comes to Ukraine. Scholz waits to see what Washington does, and then follows suit. This means that if the Biden administration is cautious, then so is Germany.
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Robert Reich: Inflation and corporate profiteering
🎦 24:53-26:57⏩
In a brief aside, Jonathan touches on the issue of inflation, which is a significant concern in the US. He quotes Robert Reich, who criticises the media for reporting on 40-year high inflation, without also mentioning that corporate profits are at a 70-year high. Jonathan argues that people need the full picture because corporate profiteering is playing a role in driving up inflation. He uses the example of the UK's energy sector, which was making record profits whilst consumers struggled to heat their homes. Jonathan believes that there needs to be a more nuanced discussion about the factors driving inflation, one that doesn't let corporations off the hook.
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NATO to establish a new mission to coordinate aid for Ukraine
🎦 26:57-28:49⏩
There are reports that NATO foreign ministers have decided to establish a new mission to coordinate aid for Ukraine. This follows comments made by the Polish Foreign Minister, who stressed that this doesn’t mean that NATO is going to war with Russia but will enable the alliance to provide more coordinated support to Ukraine. Jonathan believes this may be a move by NATO members to reduce reliance on the US, and to “future-proof” against any change in US policy. Jonathan reports on rumours that, behind the scenes, some within NATO are pushing for a deal where Ukraine would be granted immediate membership in exchange for ceding territory to Russia (Crimea and the Donbas). He acknowledges that this is controversial and would be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow, but it would at least provide them with the security guarantees of Article 5. Jonathan invites his viewers to share their views on this idea.
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Germany: Public support for NATO remains strong
🎦 29:29-29:46⏩
According to new figures, 82% of Germans believe that NATO is important to maintaining peace in Europe. 69% support the military alliance with the US and only 9% believe that NATO is redundant. Jonathan speculates that these 9% are likely to be those who support Russia.
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France and Ukraine: Kuleba backs Macron's stance
🎦 29:47-30:25⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, is urging Europe to listen to President Macron and take him seriously. Jonathan picks up on Kuleba’s frustration, "What upsets me is that I always have to convince when everything is obvious." Kuleba underscores the need for the West to increase military support to enable Ukraine to go on the offensive, "Today's strong and regular decisions must be taken on the strengthening of the army and the possibility of Ukrainian advances on the front."
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Paris Olympics 2024: Debate over participation of Russian athletes
🎦 31:33-33:10⏩
Continuing with France, Jonathan reports on the debate surrounding the participation of Russian athletes in the 2024 Paris Olympics. The mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, has said that Russian athletes will not be welcome whilst the French government remains in line with the IOC’s stance that athletes should not be held responsible for the actions of their government. However, Ukraine’s Minister of Sport, Vadym Huttsait, argues that this position is untenable if athletes are actively supporting the war effort. He reveals that his ministry has provided the IOC with a list of 800 Russian and Belarusian athletes who support the war, some of whom are even serving members of the armed forces. He concludes, “So you can’t say, right, athletes are different from the government, and then allowing a bunch of athletes who are essentially on par, like part of the government, part of the armed forces, and advocating everything the government do. So it cuts, yeah, cuts both ways.”
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Danone: French food giant to close its Belarus subsidiary
🎦 33:10-33:47⏩
French food giant, Danone, is finally closing its last remaining subsidiary in Belarus, Danone Bell. This move has been a long time coming and is welcomed by Jonathan.
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Finland closes border crossings with Russia
🎦 33:47-34:06⏩
Finland has announced that all of its land border crossings with Russia will remain closed. Additionally, several water traffic crossings will be closed to pleasure craft traffic.
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Lithuanian Prime Minister meets with his Ukrainian counterpart
🎦 34:06-34:21⏩
Ukraine's Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, has arrived in Lithuania for talks with his counterpart. Jonathan notes that this follows the announcement in the previous video of a new military aid package from Lithuania.
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Czech Republic: Russia targeting EU rail networks
🎦 34:21-35:25⏩
The Czech government has accused Russia of targeting the EU’s rail network with cyberattacks, and claims to have thwarted thousands of attempts to interfere with their systems. Jonathan argues that this is a form of warfare, and is no different to physically bombing rail lines. He’s furious that more isn’t being done about it.
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Japanese CEO with links to Putin found dead in Moscow hotel
🎦 35:25-35:51⏩
The CEO of Yamaha Music, who has close links to Putin, has been found dead in his Moscow hotel room. Jonathan is not surprised, noting that these sorts of deaths are not unusual in Russia.
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Japan to impose new sanctions against Russia
🎦 35:51-36:06⏩
Japan has announced a ban on the export of 164 goods to Russia including engine oil and optical equipment. The ban comes into force on 17th April.
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UK Intelligence: Russia seizes $11.5 billion worth of Ukrainian companies
🎦 36:06-36:39⏩
According to UK intelligence, Russia has seized 180 Ukrainian companies since the start of the invasion, worth an estimated €11.5 billion. These assets have been redistributed to Kremlin-aligned oligarchs, many of whom are actively supporting the war. Jonathan notes that this is to be expected given that Ukraine has done similar to Russian-owned businesses.
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Russian plane catches fire in Thailand
🎦 36:39-37:10⏩
An Azur Air flight from Phuket to Sochi caught fire whilst trying to take off. All passengers were evacuated safely. Jonathan sees this as another example of how sanctions are impacting Russia’s aviation industry.
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Jonathan's closing remarks
🎦 37:11-37:35⏩
Jonathan reiterates his hope that the economic and social pressures on Russia will continue to build, fuelled in part by Ukraine’s campaign to hit oil refineries, military bases, and electricity substations. He signs off by thanking his viewers and asking them to like, subscribe and share.
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