Ukraine War Update EXTRA: "War is Europe's fault for not spending on defense" - Er, no.
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Table of Contents 📖
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"Causality is complicated. And if anyone ever tells you one thing caused another thing, especially when it's in terms of geopolitics, they're almost always wrong."
Hello Team!
Jonathan addresses a comment on a previous video from an American viewer who argues that the war in Ukraine is Europe's fault for not spending enough on defence. Jonathan feels this comment reflects a broader view and is worth addressing in more depth.
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Causality and the "Europe's Fault" Argument
- The commenter argues the war is Europe's fault for not maintaining peacetime defence spending of 2% of GDP, expecting the US to defend Europe instead
- Jonathan strongly refutes this, noting the complexities of causality, especially in geopolitics
- He uses analogies to highlight the flaw in blaming Europe for 'not spending enough':
- It's like blaming someone for their house being vandalised because it was made of wood
- There are many factors (INUS conditions) that together cause an event, but are insufficient on their own
- Jonathan emphasizes the US and Russia's role in escalating tensions during the Cold War arms race, with Europe caught in the middle
Primakov Doctrine and Russian Motivations
- The Primakov Doctrine, formulated in the 1990s, asserts that Russian national security relies on preventing a US-led unipolar world order
- This doctrine still underpins Russia's worldview and imperialist intentions in Ukraine
- Russia sees the world in simplistic terms of "our influence or US influence" and is trying to regain power lost since the fall of the Soviet Union
- Russian nationalists harken back to the "golden era" of Soviet and Tsarist power, despite their ideological differences, showing it's about imperialism, not ideology
American Involvement and Interests
- Jonathan challenges the idea that the US is "not interested in ruling anyone", noting America's long history of involvement in regime changes worldwide
- He highlights US politicians' involvement in Ukraine, especially during the 2014 Euromaidan protests
- America has a strong interest in preventing a Russia/China-led "imperialistic world order" and in Ukraine prevailing in this war
- The US is acting in its own interests, not simply as a "knight in shining armor" saving Europe
- This is not just "Europe's war" that the US was "sucked into" but a war with global implications that requires US and European cooperation
Wrap up
Jonathan reiterates the complexity of causality, especially in geopolitics, and cautions against simplistic single-cause explanations like "Europe not spending enough on defence caused the Ukraine war". He notes many other significant factors like Putin, the Cold War, Ukraine itself, and wraps up by hoping this rambling video was in some way interesting to viewers. As always, he thanks his audience for their support.
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