US Presidential Biden v Trump Debate Analysis: Where To Now?
Table of Contents 📖
But actually, what happened in the end was possibly as almost as catastrophic as it could have been for Joe Biden, which is saying something because Trump managed to lie himself through the entire debate and was not called out.
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video where he is going to be discussing his analysis of the fallout of the Biden-Trump debate which was aired on CNN the night before. He explains that he wasn't able to watch the debate live because it was on during the night in the UK.
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Jonathan's overall take on the debate
🎦 00:14-04:50⏩
Jonathan describes how, because of how the debate unfolded, it was almost catastrophic for Biden and this was in spite of the fact that the format (with its constraints on the debaters) should have worked to Biden's advantage. He goes on to say how Trump lied throughout the debate and was not called out by the CNN moderators, pointing out that it was unfortunate there was no real-time fact-checking or pushback on the erroneous claims made. He highlights how this meant Biden should have called out Trump but didn't. Jonathan argues that Trump lied confidently and that this confidence makes undecided voters view him as more capable because perception is reality. He contrasts this with Biden's performance which made him appear weak and older, pointing out there was a big difference between Biden's performance in this debate compared with his performance four years ago. Jonathan argues that, rationally speaking, people should vote based on the party's suite of policies and that Trump's policies are vacuous and undefined, whereas Biden has been enacting bills, has a strong economy and can point to a strong record in office. He points out that Biden should capitalise on this record and remind voters of Trump's failings and criminal convictions. Jonathan believes the Democrats should be concentrating on policy areas like the economy, reproductive rights etc., but that it is irrelevant because Trump came across as strong while Biden appeared weak. Jonathan worries that the GOP and Fox News will have a field day with this, capitalising on Biden's poor performance over the coming months, and that this does not bode well for the Democrats.
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Three possible options for the Democrats
🎦 04:50-06:13⏩
Jonathan highlights that the Democrats are left with three options:
- Hope that the debate fallout blows over, that Biden will be stronger in future debates and that it will be okay
- Double down by pretending nothing happened and continue to back Biden
- Replace Biden
Option 3 - Replacing Biden: Mechanics, consequences and timings
🎦 06:13-07:43⏩
Jonathan explains that there is a lot of clamour to replace Biden and panic within the Democrat party. He explains how replacing Biden is not straightforward and is actually quite difficult because of the mechanics involved. Firstly, he explains how they would have to wait for the Democratic National Congress (DNC) convention in mid-August which consists of 4,000 delegates (who voted overwhelmingly for Biden in the primaries). He explains that, ideally, they would have to convince Biden to step down, for these delegates to vote for another candidate, but forcing him out if he doesn't want to go would be much more complicated. Jonathan points out that this big gap between the primaries and the DNC convention was by design in case a candidate died or became too ill to run.
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Option 3 - Replacing Biden: Should Biden step back? Was Biden overprepared?
🎦 07:43-09:14⏩
Jonathan ponders whether this is where the Democrats find themselves now and whether they will try to convince Biden to step down. He feels that Biden was overprepared, having spent a week being prepped by advisors at Camp David, suggesting that perhaps this was too much for someone of Biden's age. He contrasts this with Trump who, he believes, was advised not to go over the top if Biden appeared weak. He believes that this was a sensible approach for Trump which resulted in Biden coming across badly.
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Option 3 - Replacing Biden: How would it work? Who are the contenders?
🎦 09:14-10:39⏩
Jonathan explains that if Biden stepped down, it would require a vote by 4,000 delegates at the DNC convention, and if the vote was split, it would then go to the 700 superdelegates. He expresses a hope that they could come to an agreement on a single nominee beforehand to avoid a messy process so close to the election. He then runs through a list of potential contenders:
- Michelle Obama: He believes she would be a strong candidate, popular with black voters and women and that she would be the first female president (something that Nikki Haley would have been for the Republicans and beaten Biden). He believes she would have the backing of the Democratic party.
- Kamala Harris: He does not think she would be a good choice, lacking popularity both inside and outside the party and doesn't believe she polls well enough to win in November
- Gavin Newsom: Jonathan highlights his media-savvy personality, knowledge, and the fact that he is currently the Governor of California (which has the world's 5th largest economy) as evidence that he has the right skill set for the job. He acknowledges that there is some division because of how he has handled homelessness in California. He believes Newsom has the national traction that other candidates lack, such as:
- Gretchen Whitmer: Jonathan believes she could be one to watch in the future but doesn't think she is ready right now, lacking the national traction needed. He describes her as quite popular although he points out that this is not a view shared by gun-toting Republicans during Covid
- Pete Buttigieg: Jonathan believes he would be brilliant, highlighting how he recently used facts to 'smack down' Rick Perry during a congressional hearing on electric vehicles. He believes Buttigieg would be able to hold his own in a debate with Trump. He acknowledges that Buttigieg might not to be everyone's cup of tea because he is gay.
Jonathan's concluding remarks on Biden's potential replacements
🎦 10:39-16:49⏩
Jonathan concludes his list of candidates by saying that, whilst there are others, he's just not sure they are ready or right for this moment. He says that whilst he would love someone like Jamie Raskin, who he thinks is brilliant, he's better suited to being a lawmaker. He then reiterates how important it is that people vote for a Democrat president, believing it to be a moral imperative for both domestic and foreign policy. He ponders whether, based on last night's performance, Biden has damaged the Democrat's chances of re-election or whether it will blow over. He ends by asking viewers to let him know what they think should happen next and who they think should replace Biden.
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Wrap Up
🎦 16:49-16:52⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, explaining that he is now going to return to his Ukraine research and videos.
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