Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Imagine telling Ukrainians fighting to protect their families in their towns they're dying for nothing - it's disgraceful, absolutely, and, yeah, you know, it just makes my blood boil."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the update for 14th February 2024 from Ukraine
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff report heavy Russian losses for 13th February
🎦 00:17-02:42⏩
Jonathan reviews that the Ukrainian General Staff figures, with the caveat that they should be treated with caution:
- Heavy Russian losses reported, particularly in Avdiivka, where the Ukrainians are struggling to hold back the Russian advance and have also taken heavy losses
- 8 Russian tanks destroyed
- 27 Russian APVs destroyed
- 19 pieces of Russian artillery destroyed
- 1 Russian anti-aircraft system destroyed
- 24 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed
- 4 pieces of Russian special equipment destroyed
Jonathan adds that Ukrainian losses are also likely to be very high, reporting that he has heard from sources that Ukrainian losses in Avdiivka over the past 3 days may have been higher than the total losses in Bakhmut last year, although noting that this may be an exaggeration. He notes that Russian KAB guided glide bombs and accurate artillery are proving very effective.
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Andrew Perpetua reports 2:1 Russian to Ukrainian equipment losses
🎦 02:42-04:34⏩
Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua’s equipment loss figures for 13th February which show a 2:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses:
- Ukrainian losses: 2 HIMARS (damaged, loaded onto a cargo plane for repair), a couple of boats, an M777 Howitzer, a couple more artillery pieces, a BMP-1, and some Bradleys.
- Russian losses: a TOS-1A thermobaric munition, a T-90S tank (export variant), some T-72 and T-80 tanks, several infantry fighting vehicles, a number of APCs and MRAPs, and some trucks and civilian vehicles.
Jonathan concludes that value-wise, Russian losses are higher, although notes that the HIMARS are high value (although only out of action temporarily).
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Update on the fighting in Avdiivka
🎦 04:34-05:54⏩
- Jonathan reports that the Russians are using glide bombs in Avdiivka, in the area past Silske to the east of the coke plant where some civilians are still located, describing it as “egregious”.
- He shows footage of a Russian tank exploding after being hit, noting how volatile tank munitions are.
Fire at Mig plant in Moscow
🎦 06:20-07:44⏩
- Jonathan reports on a fire at a Mig plant on Nendigradsky Avenue in Moscow, which he suspects was arson.
- He notes that this is just the latest in a string of fires at sensitive sites in Russia, speculating that sabotage is a factor in addition to the potential for mistakes by overworked and inexperienced staff highlighted by British Intelligence.
Ukrainian helicopter shot down (no KIA)
🎦 07:44-08:05⏩
- Jonathan reports that a Ukrainian Mi-8 or Mi-24 helicopter has been shot down near Orikhiv on the Zaporizhzhia front, but that the crew survived, sustaining only injuries.
- Russian sources claim that it was shot down by an ATGM.
General Tarnavsky dismisses Russian disinformation
🎦 08:05-10:33⏩
- Jonathan reports that General Tarnavsky has dismissed Russian reports of heavy Ukrainian casualties at a training centre near Selidove in Donetsk Oblast as disinformation intended to divert attention from Russian losses in the Tavrian direction.
- The Russian reports claimed that over 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed.
- Jonathan notes that these types of claims are circulating widely on social media and that while he believes there is often an element of truth to them, this may be a good time for the Russians to use disinformation given the situation on the ground.
Russian drone strikes target Dnipro and Kharkiv
🎦 10:33-13:51⏩
- Ukraine reports that 16 out of 23 Shahed drones were shot down overnight.
- Jonathan reports that Dnipro was the main target, with the thermal power plant badly damaged. The mayor of Dnipro reports that the city’s infrastructure is “hanging by a thread” with power and water out in some areas. A hospital has been evacuated and schools are closed.
- Jonathan also reports that a Russian drone strike on 10th February hit an oil depot in Kharkiv, contaminating over 10,000 square metres of land.
- Russian shelling has also killed 4 and injured 11 across Ukraine over the past 24 hours.
- In Kharkiv Oblast, 2 civilians were killed and 2 injured in shelling in the village of Kurylivka.
- A 64-year-old man was also killed when his house in Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was hit by shelling.
Explosions in Mariupol
🎦 13:51-14:13⏩
- Jonathan reports explosions in the Mangush district of Mariupol, but has no further details.
Fire at Gas Plant near Moscow
🎦 14:13-14:39⏩
- Jonathan reports that a fire broke out overnight at the Gaspromneft refinery near Moscow.
Elon Musk’s controversial comments about Ukraine funding
🎦 14:39-17:10⏩
- Jonathan expresses his frustration with Elon Musk, arguing that his recent comments leave “no excuse” to defend him.
- He highlights a tweet by Edward Hunter Christie criticising Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson for their stance on the war, describing them as “enemies of everything we stand for”.
- Jonathan then criticises Musk for sharing Tucker Carlson’s recent show on X, which included disinformation about Ukraine, and for urging Americans to lobby Congress to stop funding Ukraine, quoting Musk as saying that “this spending does not help Ukraine”, adding that Ukrainians are dying for nothing.
- He then criticises Musk for claiming that Ukrainian soldiers are “dying for nothing” and labels it “disgusting” pointing out that Musk has never visited Ukraine and met soldiers on the front line.
Comments by the Head of Norway’s intelligence
🎦 17:10-17:56⏩
- The Head of Norway’s Intelligence Service is quoted as saying that Russia is now in a stronger position than it was a year ago and that Ukraine needs Western help to turn the situation around.
- Jonathan notes that while China is not supplying arms to Russia, it is supplying it with machinery, vehicles, electronics and spare parts.
Wrap up
🎦 17:56-18:12⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers for watching and for their support.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
What are APVs?
Is it possible to identify the specific location of the Mig plant fire in Moscow given that street names are not marked on the Google Maps satellite view?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a multi-topic video about the war in Ukraine. I will need to separate this out and quantify/add specifics for each topic. The areas to focus on are:
Introduction
Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for 13th February 2024
Andrew Perpetua's loss figures for 13th February 2024
Update on fighting in Avdiivka
Fire at (suspected arson) at Mig plant in Moscow
Ukrainian helicopter shot down (no KIA)
General Tarnavsky dismisses Russian disinformation about Ukrainian losses near Selidove
Russian drone strikes on Dnipro and Kharkiv
Explosions in Mariupol
Fire at Gas Plant near Moscow
Elon Musk’s comments re Ukraine funding
Comments by the Head of Norway’s intelligence
Wrap up
