Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If Iran are actually going to be involved in a war then they're going to be less likely to be giving all of their military equipment to Russia in the same way that Russia's defense industry has has you know got to a precipice and fallen off it but they can't build the stuff."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual caveats about the potential inaccuracy of Ukrainian claims and lack of equivalent Russian statistics. However, he believes the Ukrainian figures are more accurate than critics suggest.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian Gains and Losses
The latest Ukrainian figures claim:
- 870 Russian troops killed
- 7 tanks, 6 APCs, 10 artillery systems, 3 MLRS destroyed
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems destroyed, which are high value targets
- 1 aircraft downed
- 9 drones and 34 cruise missiles downed
Jonathan notes artillery causes the most deaths in this war. Taking out air defense is crucial for both sides to enable their aircraft to be effective. 3 MLRS is a bad loss for Russia.
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Ukrainian Strikes
Ukraine hit 13 Russian temporary bases, a control post, 2 logistics centers, 3 ammo warehouses, an electronic warfare system, aircraft and anti-aircraft missile complex. Video evidence shows an S-300 and Tor-M2 air defense system destroyed by loitering drones, which Ukraine is now using more of.
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Missile Attacks
- Russia launched 95 missiles in the latest attack, up from 81 initially reported
- Longest time between attacks since October, possibly indicating shortages of certain missiles
- Electricity and heating restored quickly in Kyiv, showing resilience of infrastructure
- Zaporizhzhia attacked, likely with S-300s, cutting utilities
Bakhmut Importance
Holding Bakhmut allows Ukraine to prepare reserves for counter-offensives and exhaust Russian resources according to the Ukrainian ground forces commander. Jonathan has been making this point for weeks - Ukraine is fixing and attriting Russian troops at a favorable ratio while preparing their own forces elsewhere.
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Russian Ammo Issues
The Ukrainian General Staff claims:
- Russia has exhausted ammunition stocks in central regions
- Deliveries now from distant warehouses, complicating logistics
- Increasing amounts of ammunition are unusable, often rusted
- Up to 50% of some shell types are unusable
- Predicts serious supply interruptions in coming months
Wagner Ammo Shortages
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is publicly complaining the Russian MOD has cut off communications with him and deactivated passes to stop him requesting ammunition. He praises manufacturers working to produce shells and says he will now ask through the media. This highlights the ongoing spat between Wagner and the regular Russian military.
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Military Aid to Ukraine
- Ukraine has received 1 of 2 promised Patriot air defense systems from US/Germany, not yet operational
- Poland agrees to transfer MiG-29 fighters, up to 40 from Poland and Slovakia combined
- Estonia re-exporting D-30 howitzers and 122mm ammo to Ukraine
- Latvia donating cars seized from drunk drivers to Ukraine's war effort
- Czechs upscaling T-72 tanks and converting trucks to anti-aircraft platforms for Ukraine
- Poland has delivered 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks and trained crews, location in Ukraine secret
- Italy delivered 20-30 M109L self-propelled howitzers
- EU discussing using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's recovery
Iranian Arms to Russia
US officials believe Iran is using Ukraine as a testing ground for its weapons. Sky News reported Iran provided Russia with 100 million bullets and 300,000 shells in January via the Caspian Sea, but no ballistic missiles yet. Jonathan notes this amount of ammo would only last Russia 5-15 days based on their usage rates. Turkey may be starting to respect sanctions on Russia by blocking shipments of prohibited goods.
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Geopolitics Roundup
- Protests continue in Georgia against the ruling Georgian Dream party, which pays lip service to EU/NATO integration but has taken anti-democratic actions
- Belarus further restricting freedoms, allowing death penalty for treason against the government
- Bulgarian politician threw Ukrainian flag from city hall balcony in Sofia
- Hungarian PM Orban says country will have to reconsider relations with Russia due to changing geopolitical reality, putting ideology aside for practicality
- US Defense Secretary says Israel will launch military operation against Iran soon to prevent nuclear weapons, with huge potential ramifications for the Ukraine war
Wrap Up
Jonathan apologizes for the length of the bumper news update but notes viewers are still listening if they've made it to the end. He appreciates everyone's support and will post a frontline update later in the day.
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