Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"You don't wake up with and just invent new conclusions and information about the world in the morning. It's not magic in your brain. You get it from who you're listening to all the time."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War News Update, the first part for February 29th, 2024.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian and Ukrainian Losses
🎦 00:21-08:32⏩
Jonathan analyses the daily statistics on Russian equipment losses, noting a significant uptick in losses across categories, including 23 tanks and 41 artillery systems. He highlights that "personnel" figures now definitively include both wounded and killed personnel, making the data more meaningful, but emphasises the inherent difficulty in accurately estimating casualty numbers in warfare. Comparing the losses with monthly averages, he observes that the Russian figures are significantly higher than usual, while Ukrainian losses are also substantial. Jonathan acknowledges a recent release of footage from Russian sources depicting Ukrainian equipment losses, including a Leopard 2A6 hit and potential Bradley and Leopard 2A5 losses, suggesting these could be reflected in future statistics.
Return to top⤴️
Military action in Olenivka and Tendrotskyi Koza
🎦 08:32-11:47⏩
Jonathan discusses a HIMARS strike on an award ceremony in Olenivka, occupied Donetsk, that reportedly killed 19 and wounded 12 soldiers from the elite 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade. He points out the strategic significance of targeting high-ranking officials potentially present at the event. Conversely, he covers an unsuccessful Ukrainian special forces operation in Tendrotskyi Koza, where four Ukrainian soldiers were killed. He notes that the operation, involving boats, likely failed due to the constant surveillance from Russian drones, eliminating the element of surprise in modern warfare.
Return to top⤴️
Increased losses of Russian aircraft
🎦 11:47-17:41⏩
Jonathan reports on the downing of three Russian Su-34 fighter bombers in one morning, bringing the total number of Russian aircraft shot down in the past 10 days to potentially 12. He emphasises the significance of these losses, particularly the loss of experienced crew members, which poses a long-term challenge for the Russian Air Force. He speculates that the increase in downed aircraft is linked to the risky tactics Russian pilots are forced to employ when deploying guided glide bombs, leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian air defenses like the Patriot and NASAMS systems.
Return to top⤴️
Russian equipment losses
🎦 17:41-18:24⏩
Jonathan presents footage showing the destruction of a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric launcher loader vehicle and a T-90 tank, suggesting these losses will be reflected in future statistics. He also shows footage of a Russian Pantsir air defense system that overturned, questioning the extent of the damage.
Return to top⤴️
Russian offensive operations
🎦 18:24-20:27⏩
Jonathan highlights ongoing Russian air attacks on the settlement of Kurakhova, likely carried out by the Su-34s operating in the area. He reports on Russian attacks in Kherson, Donetsk, and Kharkiv, which killed seven and injured 12, and notes a separate incident in Kyrgyzstan where Russian troops killed four Ukrainians, including a six-year-old girl. Meanwhile, he mentions explosions heard in Sevastopol, indicating potential Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied territories. He also points to a large fire in a Moscow suburb as possible evidence of Ukraine targeting the Russian military industrial complex.
Return to top⤴️
Russian war crimes and cyberattacks
🎦 20:27-24:07⏩
Jonathan discusses the confession of a Russian serviceman who admitted to looting and abusing Ukrainian civilians in the early days of the war, highlighting the pervasive culture of impunity and brutality within the Russian military. He also covers the revelation of classified documents from STC, the Russian manufacturer of Orlan-10 drones, obtained by Ukrainian hacktivists, exposing details about Russia's efforts to circumvent sanctions. In a turn of events, he reports on a cyberattack targeting the Ukrainian parliament's website, demonstrating the ongoing cyberwarfare between the two countries.
Return to top⤴️
Impact of Russia's gasoline export ban
🎦 24:07-26:07⏩
Jonathan analyses the impact of Russia's recent ban on gasoline exports, noting that while fuel prices for Russian farmers have risen by 20%, the situation is manageable compared to previous price hikes. He links the export ban to the successful targeting of Russian oil refineries by Ukrainian drones and missiles, further supporting his view that these attacks will continue due to their effectiveness.
Return to top⤴️
Putin's address and Budanov's comments
🎦 26:07-28:45⏩
Jonathan criticizes Putin's upcoming address, dismissing it as more of the same Russian disinformation about Ukrainian Nazis, and criticizes the dictatorial nature of broadcasting the speech across Moscow. He revisits earlier comments by Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov regarding the death of Alexei Navalny. Budanov asserted that Navalny died from a blood clot, contradicting the widely held belief that he was poisoned by the Russian government. Jonathan expresses skepticism about Budanov's claims, arguing that even if Navalny died from natural causes, the Russian government still bears responsibility for his death due to repeated poisoning attempts and imprisonment.
Return to top⤴️
Zelensky's resignation and Budanov's remarks
🎦 28:45-31:05⏩
Jonathan analyses Budanov's comments on the resignation of Oleksii Reznikov, the Ukrainian Defence Minister. He highlights Budanov's assertion that personal differences between Zelensky and Reznikov are irrelevant given the current situation, suggesting larger strategic disagreements played a role in the resignation. Jonathan acknowledges that Ukraine's counteroffensive has not met expectations, contributing to the circumstances surrounding Reznikov's departure. He also cites Budanov's claim that Russia gained access to Ukraine's counteroffensive plans, potentially explaining the operation's limited success, but questions the timing and intent behind revealing this information.
Return to top⤴️
Elon Musk and Disinformation
🎦 31:05-34:28⏩
Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk's recent social media activity, specifically his interaction with Kim Dotcom, a known spreader of pro-Russian propaganda. He condemns both Musk and Dotcom for perpetuating misinformation about the war, particularly regarding Ukrainian casualty figures. He argues that Musk's association with individuals like Dotcom has negatively influenced his understanding of the conflict, potentially impacting decisions related to Starlink's use in Ukraine. He urges viewers to be discerning about their information sources, highlighting his own efforts to provide accurate and reliable analysis.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 34:28-35:19⏩
In a humorous conclusion, Jonathan announces he will be taking a short break from the channel due to exhaustion, reassuring viewers that he will return after making a cup of tea. He jokingly compares his consistency to that of tax returns, emphasising his dedication to providing regular updates on the war.
Return to top⤴️
