Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other Christmas News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia with its capabilities is freely allowed to bomb the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure anytime they desire, but Ukraine is not being provided critical military aid to defend its own land because its range may hit Russian mainland. Insane. But hey, what goes around comes back around."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel and reminds them that this is the first part of a two-part Ukraine War update. He mentions that he's already posted a breaking news update about overnight missile attacks on his other channel, and encourages viewers to watch this video for more details. There will be a second video following this update.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - 28/12/2023
🎦 00:17-01:47⏩
Jonathan shares the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses on 28/12/2023. He reminds viewers that these figures should be treated with caution, and that the list can be found in the video description. The figures are:
- 850 personnel
- 13 tanks
- 18 armoured personnel vehicles
- 26 artillery systems
- 3 multiple launch rocket systems
- 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 35 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 7 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan notes that whilst these figures are not at the top end of the range, they are still significant, particularly the losses to MLRS and anti-aircraft systems. He also points out that logistical losses remain consistently high.
Return to top⤴️
Equipment Losses - 28/12/2023 (MAPA)
🎦 01:47-04:02⏩
Jonathan reviews equipment losses reported by MAPA (Oryx). He notes that the losses sustained by both sides were more balanced than usual, with the Ukrainian losses being higher than on other days. Ukrainian losses included:
- ISR equipment (2 x comms towers)
- Armoured recovery vehicle
- Boat
- M109 artillery piece
- Stridsvarn 122a
- 2 x BMP infantry fighting vehicles
- Civilian vehicles
Russian losses included:
- Electronic warfare systems
- 1 x artillery piece
- 1 x T-34 tank
- Several T-72 and T-80 tanks
- A number of infantry fighting vehicles
- Typhoon MRAP
- Civilian vehicles
Jonathan describes the loss of the Stridsvarn 122a as "high value", and speculates that the boat was likely a small dinghy used to cross the Dnipro River, although acknowledges this would still be a loss if it was carrying personnel. He concludes that, although higher than usual, Ukrainian losses do not outweigh the higher value of the equipment lost by the Russians.
Return to top⤴️
General Christian Freuding on Russian Losses
🎦 04:02-06:00⏩
Jonathan reports that General Christian Freuding, an advisor to the German Defence Minister has said that Russia has suffered "enormous" losses in Ukraine, with an estimated 300,000 Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded. General Freuding added that Russia is likely to emerge from the war weakened, but may be able to reconstitute its forces within 5-8 years - a timeframe that Western nations should consider when determining how to maintain deterrence against Moscow. Jonathan argues that the best course of action would be for the West to facilitate the "absolute destruction" of the Russian armed forces, citing Machiavellian reasoning that an adversary should either be completely destroyed, or conciliated with. He acknowledges that achieving this is likely to be difficult given political constraints and limited military stockpiles in many European nations.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Equipment Losses in Snihurivka
🎦 06:00-07:56⏩
Jonathan refers to video footage (which he is unable to show due to the risk of his video being restricted by Youtube) that shows significant Russian equipment losses in Snihurivka. He describes the footage as "shocking" and says that the Russians appear to be sacrificing equipment in pursuit of incremental gains, although he notes that they haven't even been able to achieve this recently. He describes the Russians as relentlessly driving into mines, ATGMs and artillery. Jonathan goes on to describe another piece of footage showing a single piece of Russian equipment exploding in a field. Whilst he is unable to say for certain what caused such a large explosion, he speculates that the equipment may have been laden with mines. He provides a link to the footage in the video description.
Return to top⤴️
Overnight Missile Attacks on Ukraine (29/12/2023)
🎦 07:56-15:05⏩
Jonathan reports that 158 drones and missiles were fired at targets across Ukraine, including Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Karkhiv. This is the largest coordinated attack that Ukraine has seen to date. He says that although Ukrainian air defences have improved, particularly in Kyiv, they were overwhelmed by the scale and coordination of the attack. He adds that many of the missiles that were successfully intercepted by air defence systems still landed in urban areas, damaging residential buildings. Jonathan questions whether some of the buildings that sustained damage, such as the maternity hospital in Dnipro, were the intended targets, or whether they were hit by the debris from downed missiles. Jonathan provides a detailed breakdown of the types of missiles used in the attack, and the number that were intercepted by Ukrainian air defences:
- 87 out of 90 (97) KH-101 cruise missiles were shot down.
- 0 out of 5 King Xiao hypersonic dagger missiles
- 0 out of 14 ballistic missiles
- 0 out of 8 KH-22 missiles
- 0 out of 5 KH-31P/KH-59 missiles
- 27 out of 36 Shaheed-136 drones were shot down.
Jonathan notes that the interception rate for cruise missiles was good, but that ballistic missiles are proving to be much more difficult to intercept. He adds that approximately 75% of the Shaheed-136 drones were shot down, but this still means that 9 were able to reach their targets. Jonathan goes on to say that, whilst it is not clear what the intended targets were, it is likely that some were successfully hit. He speculates that the recent strike on the Novocgokask landing ship in Feodosia, which may have also destroyed a number of Shaheed-136 drones with thermobaric warheads, could explain why there was not a larger wave of Shaheed-136 drones involved in the attack. Jonathan expresses his disgust at the damage inflicted on civilian infrastructure, sharing footage of the aftermath of the attacks.
Return to top⤴️
Yuri Ihnat on the Missile Attacks
🎦 15:05-16:15⏩
Jonathan shares comments from Yuri Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, about the missile attacks. Colonel Ihnat stated that approximately 18-95 strategic bombers were used in the attack, which involved a variety of different missile types, including:
- Kinzhal hypersonic missiles
- Ballistic missiles
- S-300 missiles
- Cruise missiles
- Kh-22/Kh-32 missiles
Colonel Ihant added that Russia traditionally uses Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles, and that air defence systems have not seen this volume of missiles on their radar "for a long time". He described how the Russians first conducted reconnaissance using Shaheed-136 drones, before launching waves of different missile types, circling in areas to avoid interception and hit their targets.
Return to top⤴️
International Response to the Missile Attacks
🎦 16:15-19:17⏩
Jonathan reports that following the attacks, Ukrainian officials have criticised the West for failing to provide Ukraine with the military aid needed to defend itself from Russia, and to target missile launch sites within Russia. He shares a post by Dimitry from War Translated, who describes the situation as "insane" given that Ukraine is restricted in how it can use Western-supplied weapons. Jonathan expresses his frustration at the current situation, which he believes is unfair to Ukraine. He points out that Russia is free to bomb Ukrainian cities, whilst Ukraine is prohibited from targeting Russian aircraft and airbases, or from shooting down Russian missiles or aircraft in Russian airspace. He argues that this is akin to asking Ukraine to fight the war "with one arm tied behind their back". Jonathan reports that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas described the attacks as a war crime and a reminder that Russia's goals have not changed. Prime Minister Kallas stated that Russia wants to destroy Ukraine and that preventing this outcome is crucial for global security. Jonathan agrees with Prime Minister Kallas's assessment, and says that if all Western nations were to follow the lead of the Baltic states, Ukraine would win the war quickly.
Return to top⤴️
Shelling of Kherson (28/12/2023)
🎦 19:17-20:37⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces shelled Kherson City on 28/12/2023, starting a fire in an apartment building. Although a number of apartment blocks were hit, only one person, a 92 year old woman, required hospital treatment for smoke inhalation. Jonathan expresses his disgust at Russia's actions, pointing out the hypocrisy of shelling a city it claims to have annexed. He reminds viewers that under the Russian narrative, Kherson City is now a Russian city, and its residents are Russian citizens.
Return to top⤴️
UK and Ukrainian Military Exercises
🎦 20:37-21:48⏩
Jonathan shares footage of UK soldiers escorting Ukrainian soldiers following the completion of a military training exercise in the UK. He describes this as a "nice" story, adding that he "likes to show stuff like this" to provide viewers with some balance. Jonathan comments on the respect shown to the Ukrainian soldiers by their UK trainers, and seems pleased to be able to recognise typical features of British towns and cities in the footage, such as the red brick buildings, tarmac roads and speed bumps.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Cover Up of Casualties from Nova Kakhovka Dam Explosion
🎦 21:48-23:34⏩
Jonathan cites an Associated Press (AP) investigation that reports that Russian officials deliberately undercounted the number of civilian deaths following the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam on 6 June 2023. Whilst Russian authorities have said that 59 people died in the 408 square kilometers of flooded territory under their control, residents of Oleshky say that the true figure is in the hundreds. According to the AP investigation, Russian officials told residents not to be alarmed after blowing up the dam, leading many to believe the situation was not serious. The AP investigation also found that Russian authorities removed unidentified bodies from Oleshky and buried them in mass graves. Jonathan concludes by recalling how Ukrainian civilians trapped in Russian-occupied territory had to be rescued by Ukrainian forces, as the Russian authorities made no attempt to help them.
Return to top⤴️
"Revenge Squads" Sent to Crimea
🎦 23:34-25:22⏩
Jonathan reports that the destruction of the Novocgokask landing ship in Feodosia has led to Putin sending "revenge squads" to Crimea to hunt for the resistance fighters believed to have provided intelligence to Ukraine. Jonathan cites reports from Atesh, a pro-Ukraine Crimean Tatar guerrilla group, that Russian authorities have been conducting raids, confiscating smartphones and searching for collaborators. Atesh reported that Putin is "completely furious" about the loss of the Novocgokask, and that a number of Crimean air defence commanders are likely to be removed from their posts and sent to fight on the front lines as punishment. Jonathan reminds viewers that the Novocgokask was destroyed on 26/12/2023 in a Ukrainian attack using British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles launched from a Ukrainian Sukhoi SU-24 fighter jet. According to the Ukrainian Airforce, 13 Iranian-made Shaheed-136 drones were also destroyed in the attack. Jonathan notes that this is the first time that the Ukrainians have put a figure on the number of drones destroyed. He adds that according to Russian sources, at least 52 Russian personnel are missing or injured, and that military analysts believe that as many as 100 may have been killed.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 25:22-25:30⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He says that he will speak to viewers again soon with a second part to the update.
Return to top⤴️
