Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Russian forces reportedly conducted a strike with FAB 1500. So that is a massive glide bomb on Ukrainian positions...northwest of Kherson, on the west bank of the Dnipro...the fact that they are still doing that or they have started doing that again so using glide bombs...is something they haven't done since the su-34s were shot down in this area...and they haven't been using those glide bombs which they were using incredibly effectively against the ukrainians..."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:12⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a front line update for the 3rd of January 2024. He shares a brief anecdote about his preference for dark mode over light mode. Jonathan then introduces the map, created by JR, and encourages viewers to familiarise themselves with the key.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front
🎦 01:13-03:45⏩
Jonathan begins with the northeastern axis of the frontline, from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna.
- There is little change on the map in this area, except around Ploschanka.
- Geolocated footage indicates a Russian advance west of Karamazov, Ivka and Ploschanka.
- Jonathan notes this contradicts Ukrainian drone footage of the area, which suggests Russian troops are in the same position as previously mapped.
- Mapper Andrew Perpetua's work indicates Russian troops have moved west of Ploschanka towards the Zherubets River.
- Jonathan explains the significance of the three rivers in the area - the Oskil, the Zherubets, and the Krasna - which will influence both Russian and Ukrainian military activities.
- He notes that the Russians are dug in behind the Krasna River and would ideally like to reach the Zherubets River as it flows down towards the Serebiansky Forest.
- Their ultimate goal is to advance all the way to the Oskil River, securing the Donbas region and establishing a buffer zone.
- Jonathan concludes that there has been a slight advance for the Russians in this area.
Bakhmut Front
🎦 03:46-12:09⏩
Jonathan moves on to the Bakhmut front, where the Russians have made significant gains.
- According to Suriat Maps, there has been a Russian advance in the Vesele area, both south and northeast of the town.
- Jonathan questions how much territory Ukraine is willing to cede in this area.
- He notes the interesting topography, which may or may not favour the defending force.
- He observes that attacking across flat ground can be very difficult, due to the threat of drones, artillery, and mortars, as demonstrated by the Russian struggles south of Avdiivka.
- Jonathan highlights a discrepancy between Suriat Maps and JR's map concerning Russian gains north of Bakhmut.
- Suriat Maps indicate an expansion of the grey zone, rather than a Ukrainian advance, which Jonathan suspects is an attempt to avoid reporting positive news for Ukraine.
- JR's map suggests a small Russian advance followed by a Ukrainian counter-attack.
- Jonathan speculates about a Ukrainian push to prevent the Russians from getting too close to Chasiv Yar and stresses the importance of establishing a strong defensive line around Chasiv Yar to secure the area.
- South of Klishchivka, there has been a small Russian advance along the railway line towards Zelenopillia.
- Further north, both Andrew Perpetua and Deep State Maps indicate an increase in Russian-held territory along the railway line as it circles around Klishchivka.
- There are rumours that Ukraine has the high ground at Klishchivka, but Jonathan believes control of the extensive trench network west of Klishchivka is more crucial than control of the town itself.
- He explains the trench network overlooks Klishchivka, providing an advantageous position from which to target troops and equipment in the town below.
- Therefore, it would be tactically unwise for Ukrainian forces to advance east of Klishchivka towards Opytne without controlling those trenches.
- Jonathan finishes his analysis of the Bakhmut front by looking at information from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
- He notes that the ISW has also reported Russian advances northwest and southwest of Bakhmut and provides geolocated coordinates confirming this.
- Jonathan also highlights confirmation of Ukrainian claims of a counter-attack in the village of Pidhorodne.
- Further south, there have been active hostilities around Kurdyumivka, with Ukrainian and Russian forces clashing in the area.
Avdiivka Front
🎦 12:09-15:59⏩
- Jonathan then focuses his attention on the Avdiivka front, noting that there has been no change around Novoselivka Druha.
- Activity has been observed north of Avdiivka, although the ISW describes this as “positional”, suggesting a stalemate.
- The ISW confirms the Russian advance northwest of Avdiivka, but Jonathan does not provide the geolocated footage as he considers this outdated.
- Ukrainian sources describe Stepove, northwest of Avdiivka, as a contested grey zone.
- Positional fighting is ongoing to the northwest of Avdiivka, at Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, and the coke plant near Stepove. It is also taking place southeast of Avdiivka at the same locations. To the southwest of Avdiivka, there is also fighting reported at Pervomaiske and Nevelske.
- Jonathan highlights that the situation in Avdiivka is static, with both sides dug in.
- He speculates that the Russians may be massing for another large-scale offensive.
- South of Avdiivka, geolocated footage reveals that the Russians made marginal advances northeast of Novomykhailivka but that the situation is now static.
- The footage shows destroyed Russian military equipment in the area, indicating the Russians do not have full control.
- Jonathan believes the equipment was likely destroyed as the Russians advanced through the grey zone, as part of attempts to capture Ukrainian territory.
- He concludes that this area, to the south of Avdiivka, is still very much contested.
Velyka Novosilka - Huliaipole Front
🎦 16:00-19:51⏩
- Moving further south, to the area around Velyka Novosilka, Jonathan observes no change in the mapping.
- However, there has been a slight change in favour of the Ukrainians in the Vuhledar area, where Ukrainian forces claim to have recaptured some positions.
- Jonathan notes this is reflected in Suriat Maps, although the gains appear to be small.
- Turning to the ISW’s analysis, he highlights that they have also observed no changes in this area.
- The ISW report refers to a claim made by a Russian military blogger that Russian forces had advanced up to 7km wide and 1.8km deep in the area between Novopil and Vuhledar.
- Using the measuring tool on Google Maps, Jonathan demonstrates that the maximum depth of the advance is approximately 4km.
- However, he concedes that the advance may not have happened in a single push.
- Jonathan then notes the ISW’s acknowledgement of a prominent Russian military blogger who claimed that Ukrainian forces had recaptured unspecified positions south of Vuhledar, adding that this may be what the Ukrainian general staff were referring to in their own report.
- Finally, Jonathan mentions a Russian claim to have retaken 38 of the 327 square kilometres of territory captured by Ukrainian forces during their counter-offensive in the summer of 2023.
- He questions whether this would be considered impressive, given that Ukraine captured that amount in 5-6 months, and Russia has only managed to recapture a ninth or a tenth of that in three months.
- However, he acknowledges that it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions without knowing exactly when those periods began and ended, as well as other variables that might be relevant.
Dnipro River Delta
🎦 19:52-23:41⏩
- Moving on to the Dnipro River Delta, Jonathan notes that there have been no changes to the map in the Kherson or Kinburn areas.
- The ISW has confirmed that there have been no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area but noted an increase in Russian ground attacks near Kherson.
- The most significant news from this area, according to Jonathan, is that Russian forces have reportedly struck Ukrainian positions in Kachkarivka, northwest of Kherson City, on the west bank of the Dnipro River, using a FAB-1500.
- This is notable, he explains, because the Russians had stopped using these glide bombs since three of their Su-34 fighter-bombers were shot down, potentially by Ukrainian air defences.
- Jonathan speculates that the use of these bombs indicates the Russians believe the Ukrainian air defence systems are no longer in operation in that area and that they are confident enough to risk their aircraft once again.
- He further notes that the use of these bombs will present problems for the Ukrainians defending the area.
- Having failed to locate Kachkarivka on the map, Jonathan embarks on a humorous aside, challenging viewers to a game of ‘guess the location’, pointing out the number of towns and villages in Ukraine that share the same names.
Wrap up
🎦 23:42-24:02⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asks them to like, subscribe and share the video, and thanks his members and those who donate via Buy Me a Coffee and PayPal, as this allows him to continue his work. He signs off by saying he will give a shout-out to his supporters.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unsure of the location Jonathan is referring to when he mentions “the other Bilohorivka". I only see one location by that name marked on the map. I was also unable to locate "Kachkarivka" on the map.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a Ukraine War Front Line Update, so it will heavily feature place names and descriptions of troop movements. I will need to pay close attention to the spellings of the Ukrainian place names, ensuring they are not spelt in the Russian form. I will split the summary into topics based on regions of the frontline. I will need to listen for any opinions or analysis offered by Jonathan and ensure these are captured in the summary.
