Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Crimea Strategy, Zap. Hit, Leopards in Bakhmut??!!
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Table of Contents 📖
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"Strikes like this are not war winning silver bullets but their impact is cumulative on the degradation of Russian morale and war fighting capability."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is squeezing in an extra video today due to having a lot of content to cover. He doesn't want too much of a backlog to build up.
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Missile strike on Zaporizhzhia
- A residential building in Zaporizhzhia was hit by a missile, likely an S-300. This is not an uncommon occurrence in the city.
- The strike was on a civilian area with no discernible military targets nearby. Another missile was reportedly stuck on top of a building but did not detonate.
- Jonathan considers this a war crime and notes that Putin has been issued an arrest warrant by the ICC for the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia. He expects further arrest warrants may be issued for attacks like this.
Kenneth Runt's synopsis
- No significant changes on either front in and around Bakhmut. The ratio of forces is now claimed to be 1 to 2 or 1 to 3, an improvement from the previously reported 1 to 5 or 1 to 7.
- Kenneth notes that the expiration of 6-month contracts for Wagner's prison inmates is unlikely to have a major impact, as most are forced to stay. If Wagner withdraws, it would spell the end for their boss economically and politically.
- The drone attack on Crimea is not a new development, but highlights the vulnerability of Russian logistics. The timing during the China-Russia meeting and the use of a Chinese drone is notable.
- Kenneth claims 5 Leopard tanks have moved from Chasiv Yar towards Bakhmut center, speculating they may be an early modernized model. Jonathan is very skeptical of this claim and would be shocked if Ukraine deployed Leopard 2s in Bakhmut before the anticipated counteroffensive.
Crotale air defense system
- Footage shows a French-supplied Crotale short-range surface-to-air missile system shooting down a Russian cruise missile in Ukraine.
- The Crotale has been in service since the early 1970s with various upgrades. It has a range of 11-16 km and a flight ceiling of 6,000-9,000 meters depending on the variant.
- Ukraine is believed to have received two of these systems from France.
Implications of the Jankoi strike
- Mick Ryan discusses the reported Ukrainian attack on a train allegedly carrying Russian missiles in Jankoi, Crimea.
- Jankoi is a critical railway hub connecting Crimea to the Russian-occupied southern regions of Ukraine. Disrupting it severely complicates Russian logistics.
- The strike shows Ukraine is continuing its deep fight against Russian operational and strategic targets, forcing them to rethink their force posture in Crimea. It allows Ukraine to gather intelligence for planning future operations.
- It puts further strain on Russia's limited missile stocks, which several sources indicate are now restricted to their monthly production output.
- The attack foreshadows Ukraine's ability to strike across Crimea with greater frequency once more southern territory is recaptured. Making Crimea untenable for Russian forces aids the Ukrainian strategy.
- The timing during the Xi-Putin meeting likely caused embarrassment for Putin. While not war-winning on their own, the cumulative impact of such strikes degrades Russian morale and combat capability.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks his channel members for their support, giving special recognition to the "Deep Geopolitical Thinkers". He appreciates all the support he receives, including through Buy Me a Coffee and PayPal. He will be adding a permanent thanks screen to the end of some extra videos to show his gratitude.
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