Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230810a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is supremely, supremely important. I might read all of it to you if I get a chance to do an extra. But yeah, very, very illuminating."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is on holiday but still providing updates. He mentions he is in a hotel room, not at the beach, possibly to the annoyance of his family or to give them some peace.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
- 580 KIA (killed in action) for the Russians, which is average compared to recent weeks
- 16 tanks and 13 APVs (armoured personnel vehicles) lost, reflecting heavy activity along the front lines
- 15 artillery systems lost, which is lower than some days but still significant
- 1 helicopter lost (type unspecified)
- 4 tactical drones lost
- 16 vehicles and fuel tanks lost
- 4 pieces of special equipment lost (likely electronic warfare, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance equipment)
Comparison of Ukrainian and Russian Equipment Losses
Andrew Perpetua, who surveys videos and images on social media to track losses, found the losses were fairly equal between Ukraine and Russia for the day before. This could indicate Ukraine is going on the offensive in some areas. The Ukrainians lost a significant number of APCs, IFVs and MRAPs - possibly 12 APVs if all were lost on the same day. While the Ukrainians are generally losing fewer pieces of equipment than the Russians, this day was more equal.
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Russian Officer Admits Fabrication of Reports on Ukrainian Losses
A translated Telegram post from Russian officer Colonel Shuvolov describes how Russian forces are encouraged to fabricate reports about destroyed Ukrainian equipment. This is done by filming strikes on different days using various weapons on equipment that has already been destroyed. The aim is to please the upper leadership as everyone benefits from positive, inflated reports. As the reports go up the chain of command, the information becomes further removed from the harsh reality on the ground. This leads to very poor decision making based on inaccurate information at the top levels. Jonathan emphasizes how illuminating and important this account is.
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Situation in Bakhmut
According to the Deputy Commander of the Eastern Group of Forces Strategic Communications Cherovati:
- 140 Russian invaders were killed, 232 wounded and 4 taken prisoner in the Bakhmut direction
- Ukrainian soldiers continue to hold the initiative
- Powerful pressure is being put on the enemy but in a thoughtful, systemic way without frontal attacks that would lead to heavy personnel losses
Jonathan questions the precision of the figures provided and whether the same propaganda mechanisms are at play as with the Russian reports. However, he believes the Ukrainian figures are more likely to be guesstimations rather than outright fabrications.
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Attacks on Ukraine
- Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with Shahed drones. 7 out of 10 were shot down but an oil depot was hit in the Rivne region.
- The Russians repeatedly shell civilian areas, particularly along the Dnipro river and around Kupiansk. Evacuations have been called for in the Kupiansk area as Russians may be preparing an offensive push there.
- Zaporizhzhia was attacked again with missiles hitting residential areas, supermarkets and local businesses, killing at least 3 civilians.
- Jonathan suggests this is either due to very inaccurate Russian missiles or a deliberate tactic to break Ukrainian morale, which he argues will only harden their resolve.
Crimea and Sevastopol
Russia claims 11 drones were intercepted over Sevastopol. As Sevastopol likely has the best Russian air defenses in the occupied territories, it's plausible they were all destroyed. However, the Ukrainian tactic may be to overwhelm the air defenses or locate them. The Ukrainians have been using drones cunningly around Crimea.
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Ukrainian Combat Brigades and Artillery
Thomas Theiner provided a breakdown of the known Ukrainian combat and support brigades/regiments:
- 111 known combat brigades across Army, Air Assault Forces, Marine Corps, Territorial Defense, National Guard, Border Guard, etc.
- Numerous support brigades and regiments across artillery, engineering, aviation, air defense, special forces, etc.
- At least 143 independent battalions (infantry, recon, tank, territorial defense, etc)
- Estimated 600,000 troops in combat/combat support, 500,000 additional in other support roles
- 32 combat brigades currently training in the rear, waiting to join the next phase of the Ukrainian offensive
Thanks to increased Western and Ukrainian artillery ammo production, Ukrainian artillery is now often out-shooting the Russian artillery. The US alone will soon produce 28,000 rounds per month. Combined with other nations' supplies, Ukraine will have a significant artillery advantage in some areas.
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Other News
- In occupied Melitopol, propaganda billboards proclaim "We are always with Russia" and "Russia is love", while nearby Russia fires cruise missiles into civilian buildings.
- A video of a group of 45+ year old mobilized Russians is going viral, complaining about lack of money to support their families. This highlights the financial issues Russia faces in paying conscripted soldiers.
- Satellite imagery shows Russia has built pontoon bridges to replace damaged bridges near Chonhar and the Arabat Spit. While not as effective as the bridges, it shows the importance of these crossings to Russian logistics.
Wrap up
Jonathan notes this was a long video and he will try to make the next one shorter. He thanks viewers for watching.
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