Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They have defeated the Russian Black Sea Fleet without their own navy and got the remnants of the fleet to run away to Novorossiysk and from there they do very little."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel and mentions that this Ukraine War Update NEWS is slightly earlier today than usual "due to life getting in the way". He states this is part 1 of the update and that the General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day are "insanely high" - in fact the personnel losses (1690) are the third highest during the war. He states that Russia have lost 19 tanks (double the daily average), 51 AFVs and 64 artillery systems (two and half times and a "huge number" respectively) in the past day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses Analysis
🎦 00:28-03:34⏩
Jonathan refers to statistics compiled by "Dell" (a member of his audience). The figures for Russian personnel, AFV and vehicle and fuel tank losses are all at seven day and thirty day rolling average highs. For vehicles and fuel tanks, it's a new record high. Jonathan acknowledges that even if these figures are overestimated by 15% they are still extremely high and represent a worrying trend for Russia.
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Front Line Overview: Intense fighting in multiple areas
🎦 03:34-04:35⏩
Jonathan discusses the reasons for the high Russian casualty figures this week, citing intense fighting in multiple areas: Kherson Oblast (around Kherson city and Prokrosk), Northeast (around Pishchane and Kupiansk), Vovchansk (no territorial changes but heavy fighting nonetheless). Jonathan then questions how long Russia can sustain these losses and what Ukrainian losses are. He cites analysis by "Gudmundsson" (another member of his audience) which shows weekly casualty figures for Russia at a record high and the second highest equipment and vehicle losses for this year. There have been increased Russian strikes, but Jonathan is unclear what is meant by "unfavourable strike ratio".
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Vovchansk: Russian blogger account reveals heavy losses and brutal fighting
🎦 04:35-10:06⏩
Jonathan reads and discusses a harrowing account of the fighting in Vovchansk by a Russian blogger which describes the area as littered with the bodies of Russian soldiers. Jonathan's analysis is that this account supports his belief that although both sides are experiencing high casualty figures, there is an asymmetry in the war whereby Ukrainian forces are using drones effectively to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces through precision strikes. This is out of necessity, as Ukraine do not have the manpower or equipment to match Russia and have to ensure that their limited resources are used effectively. The blogger's account goes on to describe the limited medical support available (delivered by drone) and the dangers of being attacked by "kamikaze" drones. The account ends with the blogger questioning whether they will go back to the front, stating "When you know no one has come to save you, the desire to fight disappears completely." In the commentary that follows the blogger's account, a Russian describes the fighting as a new "Verdun" (referring to one of the longest and costliest battles in WW1), lamenting the heavy losses and questioning whether there can be any "European expansion" at this rate. The Russian also states that mobilisation would be required to replenish reserves, but the "leadership won't risk" this due to the "catastrophic implications".
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Jonathan's Analysis: The stalemate, mobilisation and the US elections
🎦 10:06-13:53⏩
Jonathan agrees with the analysis that both sides are taking heavy losses and that although Russia are able to replenish losses with manpower, these are not properly trained reserves. He states that both sides are reluctant to engage in mass mobilisation as this would be "economic suicide", however they are both in desperate need of manpower. He believes that Russia are in a more "fortuitous" position than Ukraine as they can draw on troops from North Korea to mitigate against Ukrainian precision strikes. Jonathan believes that Russia are relying on the outcome of the US election for a political solution to the war as a military solution would require mobilisation which they are reluctant to do. He states that if the US went "full in" on their support for Ukraine, Russia would capitulate and experience economic collapse. He expresses frustration that the US election has come at the wrong time as the Biden administration has been "too tentative" and "too scared of escalation".
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Front line updates: Volume of combat footage is overwhelming
🎦 13:53-15:49⏩
Jonathan refers to a post by Andrew Perpetua (who he uses for mapping updates) who states that the volume of combat footage they are receiving has increased to 1000 clips per day and they are "drowning in work". Jonathan encourages anyone who has time to spare and can commit to it consistently, to volunteer to help Andrew by contacting Touchnyi (a Ukrainian Telegram channel). Jonathan mentions he missed a post from Andrew about a T-90M breakthrough tank that has been destroyed. He expresses surprise that this - Russia's best tank - is being used in such a suboptimal way.
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Kursk: Russian losses and North Korean troops
🎦 15:49-20:54⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of Russian losses in the Kursk region. The figures vary but are consistently high. He cites figures from Russian sources reporting 100 Russian casualties in the Novo-Ivanovka area and from Kriegsforscher reporting 77 AFVs and 300 casualties in the wider area over 5 days. He refers to confirmation from the South Korean news agency Yonhap and from US sources that North Korean troops have moved to the front lines in Kursk and are actively engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces. Jonathan also mentions a report from a Ukrainian source (O.C. Pivnich) stating that Russia has used over 3000 anti-aircraft missiles in Kursk during the past 100 days, most likely glide bombs. Jonathan expresses the view that one of the reasons that the Kursk offensive was a good strategic choice for Ukraine was to force Russia to fight on their own territory which would both limit the build-up of fortifications and equipment in Ukraine, and result in the destruction of Russian infrastructure and towns.
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Crimea: Railway bridge collapse in Jankoi
🎦 20:54-21:42⏩
Jonathan reports that a railway bridge has collapsed in the Jankoi district in Northern Crimea. He speculates that this may be due to partisan activity, poor maintenance or an attack by Ukrainian forces, but no cause has been confirmed. He states that the bridge is important as Jankoi is a logistics hub that connects four different directions by road and rail and the collapse will cause problems for the Russians.
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Overnight drone attacks
🎦 21:42-23:34⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian Air Force have confirmed another large drone attack overnight. All 59 Shahed drones sent by Russia were shot down, 21 by conventional air defence and 38 by electronic warfare. Jonathan observes that electronic warfare is consistently doing the "heavy lifting" for Ukraine, demonstrating an effective adaptation to the Russian threat. However he expresses disappointment that Ukraine has not made greater use of its own attack drones in recent weeks. There has been a lull in large scale attacks targeting Russian infrastructure, such as oil depots and refineries. Given that Russia has stepped up production of Shahed drones, he had expected to see a corresponding increase in attacks from Ukraine. He speculates that Ukraine may be planning a "phenomenal wave" of drone and missile attacks, citing a report that Ukraine has built 100 ballistic missiles.
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Russian Black Sea Fleet: Relocated to Novorossiysk after losses
🎦 23:34-25:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the car bomb attack in Sevastopol that killed a high-ranking Russian naval officer and how there have been reports that other senior officers and their families have relocated to Novorossiysk in Russia. He believes this is a significant victory for Ukraine, as they have effectively defeated the Russian Black Sea Fleet without a navy of their own. The remnants of the fleet have relocated to Novorossiysk and have been largely inactive. Cruise missile attacks from the Black Sea have all but ceased. Jonathan considers this an under-celebrated victory for Ukraine.
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Kupyansk: Russian forces enter the city before being repelled
🎦 25:22-26:34⏩
Jonathan discusses a report that Russian forces entered Kupiansk, citing confirmation from the Ukrainian 116th and 14th Brigades. They encountered two vehicle columns (an MTLB and a tank) and destroyed part of the enemy force with drones. Reinforcements were sent in but were also struck. Jonathan describes this as "worrying" given the distance the Russians managed to travel into the city. However, a Ukrainian official later denied that the Russians had established themselves in Kupiansk, stating that the attack had been repelled. Jonathan acknowledges this, but states that the fact that the Russians were able to get into the city at all is a worrying development.
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Russia: Injury compensation payments to soldiers cut
🎦 26:34-29:28⏩
Jonathan refers to a Twitter thread by ChrisO_Wickey that reports on cuts to compensation payments to Russian soldiers injured in the war. The payments have been cut by as much as 96.6% in a move to reduce Russia's massive compensation costs. Jonathan states that this is understandable given the high casualty figures. Using the Ukrainian figure of 716,000 Russian casualties, he speculates that Russia must be "hemorrhaging money" in compensation payments. He also mentions that Russia has a policy of not retrieving dead bodies in many instances, preferring to record them as "missing in action" to avoid having to pay compensation. Under the new decree by Putin, a three tier scale for compensation payments has been introduced based on severity of injury. Severe injuries are still compensated at the previous level of 3 million Rubles (approx. $30,000). Moderate injuries are compensated at 1 million Rubles ($10,152). The lowest tier - light injuries - are compensated at 500,000 Rubles (approx $5076). The speed with which the decree was implemented (two and a half hours) suggests to Jonathan that this was pre-planned and is a further sign that Russia is struggling economically.
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Dara Massicot's analysis: Ukraine facing manpower shortage
🎦 29:28-39:56⏩
Jonathan reads and discusses an analysis of the situation in Ukraine by Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focusing on Russian defence issues. She has recently returned from a research trip to Ukraine and has concluded that the situation is "serious and urgent". She states that Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of manpower, particularly infantry. Mobilisation has not addressed this for a number of reasons and the issue of forced employment is also a challenge. There is no longer a shortage of Western weapons and equipment, but the lack of manpower is a major issue for Ukraine. She goes on to express concern that the Kursk offensive has stretched resources and left the front lines "unstable". She fears that Ukrainian forces in Kursk may become encircled and cut off by the Russians. There is evidence that Russian forces have been executing wounded and surrendering Ukrainian soldiers. The presence of North Korean troops has also put additional pressure on Ukrainian forces. She notes that although Russia are taking heavy casualties, the rate of their attacks has not slowed and they are better able to rotate and regenerate forces than Ukraine. She concludes that both Ukraine and Russia are heading for exhaustion, but that Ukraine may reach that point first unless changes are made. This is not due to any lack of bravery or skill on the part of Ukrainian forces, but a strategic and resource issue. She calls for increased support from Ukraine's partners and warns that the situation is too urgent to wait for the outcome of the US elections. Jonathan agrees with the analysis, adding that the presence of North Korean troops has been a game changer for Russia, providing them with a seemingly inexhaustible supply of manpower that Ukraine cannot counter with precision strikes alone. He reiterates his view that the US should allow Ukraine to use long range weapons to strike targets within Russia and that this is the only way Ukraine can win the war.
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Wrap up
🎦 39:56-40:00⏩
Jonathan asks viewers to share their thoughts in the comments and thanks them for their support.
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