Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
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"They [the EU] overpromised and were unable to deliver [artillery shells on schedule] due to how long it takes basically to ramp up production schedules and ramp up capacity... it is a lot more difficult unless you go full-on war economy, a lot more difficult than you might imagine."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a multi-part Ukraine War News Update. He mentions delays due to significant updates required for the frontline maps, which he plans to film after a cinema trip.
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EU to Deliver $50 Billion to Ukraine from Frozen Russian Assets
🎦 00:51-01:33⏩
The EU is set to release $50 billion to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets, despite US attempts to stall the process. The news, reported by Bloomberg, has been welcomed by the EU, who are keen to support Ukraine. There are questions over whether the funds will be earmarked for military use, closing the gap in Ukraine's budget deficit, or both.
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Italy Maintains Stance on Use of Weapons Supplied to Ukraine
🎦 02:10-03:05⏩
Italy reiterates its position that weapons supplied to Ukraine should not be used on Russian territory. Their stance is that the weapons are defensive and not to be used offensively against Moscow. This has raised questions about whether other weaponry supplied by European nations, such as Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG missiles, are subject to the same restrictions.
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Ukraine Urges UK to Maintain Momentum and Allow Storm Shadow Strikes on Russian Territory
🎦 03:05-04:31⏩
- Ukraine has urged the UK to maintain the momentum gained from the Kursk operation and allow the use of Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory, according to the Daily Telegraph.
- The article suggests that UK Labour leader Keir Starmer's position is being undermined, as the UK government's stance seems to be that the use of such weapons is ultimately Ukraine's decision.
- Jonathan believes that US restrictions on weapon use amount to "blackmail", pressuring Ukraine into limiting their military options in return for continued aid.
- Following the UK's lead, the Netherlands has subtly implied that US limitations are hindering Ukraine's military efforts, stating that restrictions on F-16 usage come from the US, not the Netherlands.
Czech Foreign Minister: Hague-Led Ammunition Initiative Delivering on Schedule
🎦 05:42-06:55⏩
- The Czech Foreign Minister has stated that the Hague-led initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine is delivering on schedule.
- The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, along with two nearby facilities, has significantly ramped up production of 155mm artillery shells, currently producing over 36,000 units per month, a 50% increase.
- Three additional production lines are being constructed at the Scranton plant, with the goal of reaching a monthly output of 85,000 shells by 2025.
- It's unclear if this figure includes output from other production facilities.
EU Delivers 700,000 of 1 Million Promised Artillery Shells
🎦 07:07-07:57⏩
- The EU has delivered 700,000 artillery shells to Ukraine out of the promised 1 million. Deliveries have been hampered by the challenges of rapidly increasing production capacity.
- Jonathan criticises the EU's decision to put a specific number on the aid package, arguing that a more open-ended commitment would have been more prudent.
EU to Train 60,000 Ukrainian Soldiers; US Orders $1.3 Billion in Javelin Missiles
🎦 07:57-08:57⏩
- The EU will have trained 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the end of August. Germany alone plans to train an additional 10,000 by year's end, according to German Defence Minister Thomas Hichler. This figure doesn't include training provided by non-EU nations like the UK, suggesting the total number of trained personnel is likely much higher.
- The US military has placed a $1.3 billion order for Javelin anti-tank guided missiles, with over 4,000 units earmarked for Ukraine. The contract, awarded to a Lockheed Martin and Raytheon joint venture, aims to increase annual production to 3,960 units by 2026.
Ukrainian Special Forces Test New Surface Robot Systems
🎦 08:57-10:22⏩
- Ukrainian special forces have demonstrated three surface robot systems currently undergoing testing: Termite, Shavlia, and Lyut 2.0.
- The Termite is designed for transport and evacuation, the Shavlia is a remote-controlled turret equipped with a recoilless machine gun, and the Lyut is intended for ambushes, potentially in coordination with other robotic systems.
- Jonathan notes that while Ukraine has primarily utilised unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) for logistics and casualty evacuation, Russia seems to be ahead in their combat deployment.
- He predicts UGVs will play an increasingly significant role in the conflict.
Lukashenko: Belarus Will Not Send Troops to Ukraine Unless Attacked
🎦 10:27-11:10⏩
- Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has denied claims that Belarus is planning to send troops to Ukraine. He stated that military action would only be taken if Belarus itself were attacked.
- The statement follows reports of Belarusian troop build-ups on the border with Ukraine, including Wagner PMC mercenaries.
- Ukraine has urged Belarus to withdraw its forces beyond the range of existing Belarusian fire systems to de-escalate the situation.
North Korea Sends Military Cargo to Russia, Germany Experiences Explosions at Defence Facilities
🎦 11:11-13:33⏩
- North Korea has reportedly sent 13,000 military cargo containers to Russia, according to South Korean media.
- It is estimated that 6 million artillery shells may be among the shipment, raising concerns about violations of international sanctions.
- Meanwhile, Germany has experienced explosions at defence facilities, potentially linked to acts of sabotage.
- A recent explosion at Dynitech in Troisdorf, a company belonging to Diehl Defense, a major supplier of explosives, injured several people. The cause of the explosion is still under investigation, although early reports suggest an accident.
- This incident follows a massive fire at a Diehl Group facility in Berlin in May 2024, which several media outlets attributed to Russian sabotage, despite official denials.
- Jonathan points to other similar incidents at defence facilities, including one at BAE Systems in Wales and another at an ammunition factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, highlighting the possibility of wider sabotage efforts.
Macron and Starmer Pledge Continued Support for Ukraine
🎦 13:33-15:27⏩
- French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Labour leader Keir Starmer have reiterated their commitment to supporting Ukraine.
- They also called for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East and highlighted their desire to strengthen bilateral relations, particularly in defence, security, and energy.
- Jonathan commends the UK's strategy of fostering closer ties with Europe without explicitly addressing the contentious issue of rejoining the EU. He emphasizes the importance of strong relationships with major European powers, particularly given the current volatile geopolitical landscape.
- He believes that collaboration and intelligence sharing are crucial for security and offer a more effective approach than isolationism.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Visits St. Petersburg Amid Energy Concerns
🎦 15:27-16:39⏩
- Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó's visit to St. Petersburg has been met with criticism, given Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.
- The official reason for the visit was to discuss energy security, following Ukraine's decision to shut off a gas pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia.
- There are suggestions that Hungary may be receiving hydrocarbons from Russia through alternative routes.
- Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine, has stated that the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary receive Russian oil, will cease operation on January 1st, 2025.
- This move could explain the Hungarian Foreign Minister's visit to Moscow.
Putin to Visit ICC Member Mongolia, Raising Questions About Potential Arrest
🎦 16:39-19:15⏩
- Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Mongolia, an International Criminal Court (ICC) member state, next week. This will be his first visit to an ICC member since the court issued an arrest warrant for him in March 2024.
- As a signatory to the Rome Statute, the treaty that governs the ICC, Mongolia is obligated to arrest Putin if he enters its territory.
- Despite this, the Kremlin appears unconcerned about the possibility of arrest.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia has "excellent relations" with Mongolia, and the matter has been "specifically addressed". He later claimed that Putin has received security guarantees from China.
- Ukraine has formally requested that Mongolia arrest Putin upon his arrival.
US National Security Advisor in China as North Korea Supplies Arms to Russia
🎦 19:15-20:19⏩
- As reports emerge of North Korea shipping 13,000 containers of arms to Russia, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is in Beijing for talks with Chinese officials.
- Sullivan's visit is seen by some as an attempt to curb Chinese and North Korean support for Russia.
- Some critics argue that the Biden administration's approach towards China has been ineffective, amounting to appeasement and projecting weakness.
Chinese Banks Block Transactions with Russia Over Fears of Secondary Sanctions
🎦 19:45-20:19⏩
- In a significant development, Chinese banks have begun blocking transactions with Russia, particularly those involving electronics, due to fears of secondary sanctions from the West.
- Jonathan views this as a positive development and acknowledges the efforts of the US Treasury Department in applying pressure on third-party countries and financial institutions to comply with sanctions against Russia.
Serbia Announces $3 Billion Deal to Buy French Warplanes, Raising Concerns About Russian Influence
🎦 20:19-23:22⏩
- Serbia has announced a $3 billion deal to purchase 12 Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France.
- While this could be interpreted as a move away from Russian influence, Balkans expert Ivana Stradner argues that it's more likely a strategic move by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to appease the EU while maintaining ties with Russia.
- Stradner suggests that such deals, where sophisticated military equipment is provided to countries with close ties to Russia, carry the risk of sensitive information being leaked to Moscow.
- She criticizes Western powers, particularly Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, for their handling of the Western Balkans, arguing that their policies have allowed countries like Serbia to play both sides.
- Jonathan expresses concern that Serbia is being allowed to get away with too much and encourages viewers to share their opinions.
Wrap Up
🎦 23:22-24:26⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video by mentioning breaking news of a guided bombing in Kharkiv, Ukraine, which has resulted in the destruction of a residential building and the loss of life, including children.
- He condemns Russia for this act, labeling it another war crime and lamenting the international community's apparent normalization of such atrocities.
- He reiterates the need for unwavering solidarity with Ukraine and urges Western powers to provide Ukraine with comprehensive military aid rather than the current "dribs and drabs".
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