Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"We are at war effectively with Russia, in all but name, I guess, in terms of the allies of Ukraine."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the third part of his Ukraine War News Update for 19/11/2024. He explains that this is a geopolitics video.
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Potential ATACMS strike in Bryansk, Russia - Western Escalation?
🎦 00:13-01:25⏩
- Reports this morning indicate that an ammunition depot in Bryansk, Russia, may have been struck by Ukrainian ATACMS missiles.
- This is significant because it could be the first example of Ukraine utilising the extended range of ATACMS missiles to strike deep within Russian territory, beyond the previously reported restriction limiting their use to targets in Kursk.
- Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has stated that the strikes in Bryansk (regardless of the type of missile used) are a signal that the West seeks escalation. He also accused European values of being racist and claimed that the Ukrainian government does not represent the majority of the people in the occupied territories.
- Jonathan highlights the absurdity of Lavrov's claims about Ukrainian representation, pointing out that many residents have fled due to the Russian invasion.
Ukraine Foreign Minister presents evidence of North Korean Weapons at UN Security Council meeting
🎦 01:25-02:14⏩
- Ukraine's new Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba's successor, presented a fragment of a North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile at a UN Security Council meeting.
- The fragment serves as evidence of North Korean weapon supply to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine.
- He discussed Russia's heavy casualties, war crimes, and threats to international security, calling for more stringent sanctions against Russia and continued support for Ukraine.
- UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, was present alongside the Ukrainian Foreign Minister at the UN meeting, demonstrating ongoing UK support for Ukraine.
Political unrest in Georgia - President of Abkhazia resigns, Opposition protests in Tbilisi removed
🎦 02:14-03:45⏩
- The self-proclaimed president of occupied Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, has resigned following protests.
- Vice President Badra Gunba has assumed the role of acting president in the Russian-controlled Georgian region.
- In Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, authorities have dismantled an opposition protest camp that had been set up in response to disputed parliamentary election results.
- The opposition had been demanding a rerun of the election, which was won by the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party.
- Jonathan expresses concern that, without sustained large-scale protests similar to the Euromaidan movement in Ukraine in 2013, the protesters are unlikely to succeed in unseating the Georgian Dream government. He also suggests that Russia may try to turn Georgia into a state similar to Belarus.
- He acknowledges a viewer comment from Jane Keeve expressing pessimism about the situation, suggesting that those protesting the election are being arrested.
Damage to undersea cables between Lithuania and Sweden - Russian Spy ship Yantar suspected of Sabotage
🎦 03:45-08:13⏩
- A second undersea cable connecting Lithuania and Sweden has been damaged, reducing Telia's internet capacity by a third.
- A Russian spy ship, Yantar, was observed deploying drones near crucial underwater energy and internet infrastructure, leading to suspicions of sabotage.
- This incident follows previous damage to a cable between Finland and Germany. Jonathan questions when such actions will be considered acts of war and when Article 5 of the NATO treaty might be invoked.
- He expresses frustration that Russia seems to be pushing the boundaries of acceptable behaviour without facing significant consequences. He points to concerns about the vulnerability of other critical infrastructure to similar attacks.
- The Irish Navy ship, LÉ James Joyce, escorted the Russian ship Yantar out of Ireland's exclusive economic zone after it was observed operating drones near undersea cables connecting Ireland to the UK and France.
- Edward Burke, an assistant professor in the history of war at University College Dublin, described the situation as "alarming" and a "wake-up call" for Ireland to strengthen its naval capabilities and security partnerships.
- Similar concerns about critical infrastructure were raised earlier in the year following suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline and undersea cables between Finland and Estonia.
- A former FSB director had previously warned about Russia potentially targeting underwater cables, which are vital for global communication.
- Jonathan asserts that these incidents are "looking very dodgy" and considers them acts of war if Russian involvement can be proven.
When is war, war? - Jonathan's thoughts on Russia's hybrid warfare
🎦 08:13-09:50⏩
- Jonathan argues that Russia's actions, such as cyberattacks on hospitals and severing undersea cables, constitute acts of war, but plausible deniability allows them to avoid accountability.
- He draws an analogy between physically bombing infrastructure and disrupting it through hybrid means, questioning why the latter is not treated with the same severity.
- Jonathan suggests that the reluctance of Western nations to label these actions as acts of war emboldens Russia to continue its aggressive behaviour.
- He believes the international community should establish a clear threshold for what constitutes an act of war in the context of hybrid warfare, similar to the "beyond reasonable doubt" standard used in courts of law.
German Defence Minister suspects sabotage of Baltic Sea Cables - Musk's Starlink as a solution?
🎦 09:50-11:46⏩
- German Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, has openly stated his suspicion that sabotage is behind the disruption of two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, dismissing the possibility of accidental damage.
- Jonathan highlights a viewer comment suggesting that Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet system could provide a solution to the vulnerabilities of undersea cables.
- He questions what action the incoming US administration will take regarding these incidents and whether they will acknowledge Russian responsibility, given their potential impact on US businesses and transatlantic communication.
- A summary of the "coincidences" from the past two days: two undersea cables cut (Finland-Germany and Lithuania-Sweden), two nuclear reactors malfunctioned and shut down in Finland, and drones and Russian ships observed near key infrastructure in Norway.
Olaf Scholz's phone call with Putin - Was it a mistake? Implications for US-Europe relations?
🎦 11:46-16:00⏩
- Jonathan discusses Olaf Scholz's phone call with Vladimir Putin. Scholz, despite criticism from other European leaders, defended his decision, stating it was important to dispel any illusions Putin may have about the West abandoning its support for Ukraine and to ensure that Europe is involved in any potential negotiations.
- Jonathan suggests Scholz may be attempting to assert European authority in anticipation of the Trump administration potentially seeking to take control of negotiations.
- He emphasises the importance of Ukraine's agency in any peace talks.
- Scholz, following the call, stated Putin's views on the war remain unchanged, indicating a lack of willingness to negotiate.
- Jonathan worries that Russia will exploit the current situation to gain more ground while Ukraine tries to ramp up its domestic weapons production and secure sufficient Western aid to counter Russia's territorial advances.
- Polish President Andrzej Duda criticized Scholz's phone call as a mistake.
EU considerations: Partial membership for Ukraine? Borrell criticises EU support for Ukraine
🎦 16:00-17:04⏩
- Former President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has suggested partial EU membership for Ukraine due to the transformations still needed for full membership.
- Jonathan notes the discussion surrounding hybrid memberships in both NATO and the EU, acknowledging the challenges Ukraine faces.
- Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, during a recent visit to Kyiv, expressed dissatisfaction with the level of EU support for Ukraine, suggesting it was insufficient and that Russia, with backing from North Korea and Iran, has been able to commit its entire economy to the war effort.
Macron on Putin: No desire for peace or negotiation. Need for European unity and genuine peace
🎦 17:04-18:39⏩
- French President Emmanuel Macron has stated that Putin is unwilling to pursue peace or negotiate.
- He believes Europe must remain unified and strive for genuine peace, not Ukraine's capitulation.
- While Macron is open to dialogue with Putin, he stresses the priority is equipping and supporting Ukraine.
- Shashank Joshi, a defence editor at The Economist, agrees with Macron's stance but highlights the need for a coherent European strategy regarding a potential peace plan from the Trump administration.
- Joshi suggests Europe should seek to influence and shape any such plan, rather than outright resisting it.
- Jonathan expresses uncertainty about Trump's ability to negotiate effectively with the EU, given his history of hostility towards alliances. He believes "difficult times lie ahead."
Denmark's Prime Minister visits Kyiv on the 1000th day of the war
🎦 18:39-19:02⏩
- Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, made an unannounced visit to Kyiv, marking the 1000th day of the war and demonstrating Denmark's strong support for Ukraine.
- Jonathan commends Denmark's commitment and Frederiksen's actions, including laying a wreath at a memorial in Bucha.
Russia vetoes UN resolution to end war in Sudan - UK condemnation
🎦 19:02-19:54⏩
- Jonathan discusses Russia's veto of a UN Security Council resolution to end the war in Sudan.
- UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, condemned Russia's action, highlighting their disregard for peace and their role in contributing to the suffering of the Sudanese people.
- Jonathan connects Russia's involvement in Sudan to their pursuit of natural resources, citing their presence in Syria and other parts of Africa.
UK sanctions individuals involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia
🎦 19:54-20:17⏩
- The UK has imposed new sanctions on individuals implicated in the forced deportation and re-education of Ukrainian children to Russia.
- The Kyiv Independent has reported that over 19,500 Ukrainian children have been deported, with approximately 6,000 sent to re-education centres. Jonathan commends the UK for expanding its list of sanctioned entities.
Russia rejects Erdogan's peace plan for Ukraine
🎦 20:17-20:58⏩
- The Kremlin has dismissed a peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly proposed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, deeming it unacceptable.
- Jonathan is not surprised by Russia's rejection and expresses his belief that the plan, which he compares to those put forward by figures like JD Vance, would have been unacceptable to Ukraine. He suggests that Russia's rejection saves Ukraine from having to formally reject the plan.
Russian economy in dire straits: 30% mortgage rates, Quantitative Easing, Printing money to fund the war?
🎦 20:58-23:53⏩
- Jonathan highlights David Frum's (senior editor at The Atlantic) concern about the potential for the incoming Trump administration to bail out the struggling Russian economy.
- He discusses the state of the Russian economy, citing reports of exploding mortgage rates, with some banks now offering rates over 30%.
- He notes the recent collapse of major Russian property developers.
- Jonathan reports that Russia is considering printing up to 100 billion dollars worth of banknotes to prop up struggling state banks.
- He cites a Moscow Times article detailing the Central Bank's plan to inject billions into state-owned banks to support Putin's military budget, using a mechanism similar to quantitative easing, likely leading to inflation.
Lithuanian President speaks with Trump on Ukraine, Russia, and China
🎦 23:53-25:17⏩
- Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda spoke with Donald Trump, discussing support for Ukraine and the negative impact of the cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea on global security.
- Nausėda reportedly emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia to deter other authoritarian regimes.
- Jonathan applauds European leaders for directly communicating to Trump the dangers of appeasing Russia. He cautions against forcing Trump into a corner, as this could lead him to revert to his pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine stance.
Trump's victory - a shallow mandate? Coattails, Electoral College, Popular Vote
🎦 25:17-28:19⏩
- Jonathan, referring to analysis by CNN's Harry Enten, discusses the nature of Trump's victory, noting the ongoing vote count in states like California, which are traditionally Democrat-leaning and take longer to process results.
- He explains that statistical models are used to project the outcome in these states, and as late-counted votes tend to skew towards Democrats, the popular vote margin has been shrinking.
- Trump's victory, despite securing the electoral college and potentially even a narrow popular vote win, was achieved with one of the smallest popular vote margins in US history.
- Jonathan explains the concepts of coattails in elections, where a strong performance by the top candidate can benefit down-ballot candidates from the same party, noting that Trump had "weak coattails" as evidenced by Democratic wins in Senate races in states he won.
- He highlights examples of split-ticket voting, where voters chose candidates from different parties for different offices.
GOP on track for the smallest House Majority, Republicans hope for US collapse under Trump? Tariffs = economic suicide?
🎦 28:19-31:18⏩
- Despite Republicans gaining control of the Senate, House of Representatives, and the Presidency, the GOP's advantage in the House is relatively small.
- Jonathan cites an article by Mikhail Zygar in The New York Times suggesting that some within the Kremlin hope a Trump presidency will lead to the collapse of the US government due to his divisive nature.
- He points to previous statements made on Russian state TV about hoping for a Trump win to instigate civil war in the US.
- Jonathan expresses concern that Trump's policies, particularly tariffs, could have a devastating effect on the American economy, potentially leading to a trade war with China, the EU, Britain, and Canada. He hopes that Trump will be convinced not to implement these policies.
- He acknowledges the paradox of Trump potentially achieving electoral success through promises he cannot keep without causing significant harm to the country.
RFK Jr. nominated for Health and Human Services - A closer look
🎦 31:18-39:29⏩
- Jonathan discusses the potential appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the head of Health and Human Services in the incoming Trump administration. He criticizes Kennedy Jr. as a "conspiracy theorist" and "serial liar" with a history of promoting disinformation, particularly regarding vaccines.
- He highlights Kennedy Jr.'s anti-vaccine activism, linking it to the deaths of children in Samoa and his promotion of false information about vaccines causing autism, ADHD, cancer, and other illnesses.
- Jonathan scrutinizes Kennedy Jr.'s personal life, including his infidelity and his wife's suicide, questioning his trustworthiness. He details Kennedy Jr.'s controversial statements and actions, including his comparison of vaccine-hesitant individuals to Anne Frank, his suggestion that the CIA was involved in JFK's assassination, and his appearances on platforms like Fox News and InfoWars.
- He analyses Kennedy Jr.'s stance on Ukraine, pointing out his repetition of pro-Russian narratives, such as claims of Russian peace offers, inflated Ukrainian casualty figures, and false accusations of genocide in the Donbas.
- Jonathan discusses Kennedy Jr.'s Democratic presidential nomination challenge against Joe Biden, revealing the support he received from Republican figures like Steve Bannon and Roger Stone. He suggests that these figures view Kennedy Jr. as a "chaos agent" who can undermine Biden and sow anti-vaccine sentiment.
- He predicts a resurgence of "stolen election" claims if Kennedy Jr. loses to Biden.
RFK Jr. appointed - Reactions
🎦 39:29-40:36⏩
- Jonathan reports the confirmed appointment of RFK Jr as Secretary of Health and Human Services.
- He shares strong negative reactions from Democratic Representative Robert Garcia, who calls the appointment "insane" and predicts it will cost lives.
- He expresses concern that RFK Jr is yet another pro-Russia figure within the Trump administration.
Mike Waltz and the incoming US administration's stance on Ukraine and ATACMS
🎦 40:36-43:53⏩
- Jonathan strongly criticises Mike Waltz, incoming US National Security Advisor, for suggesting that allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles with extended range is an escalation.
- He argues that Waltz, like figures such as Richard Grenell, David Sachs, and Donald Trump himself, focuses blame solely on the US or Ukraine while ignoring Russia's escalating actions, including the use of North Korean weapons and troops.
- He accuses them of handing Putin rhetorical ammunition, taking their arguments out of context and failing to acknowledge the wider picture of Russia's aggression.
Anders Breivik supports Russia
🎦 43:53-46:07⏩
- Jonathan reports that Anders Behring Breivik, the Norwegian far-right terrorist who carried out the 2011 attacks in Norway, has expressed support for Russia's actions in Ukraine and even displayed the letter Z on his head.
- He uses this as an example to demonstrate how ultra-nationalist and neo-Nazi ideologies are more aligned with Russia than any left-wing or communist ideals. He points to the presence of neo-Nazi symbolism and gestures among Russian troops and supporters.
Trump and Musk - A curious photo
🎦 46:07-47:25⏩
- Jonathan discusses a selfie of Elon Musk and Donald Trump, noting Trump's appearance and speculating about his hair.
- He mentions the recent release of Jeffrey Epstein's recordings, highlighting the irony of the silence surrounding Trump's connection to Epstein after months of Republicans accusing Democrats of being involved with him.
Wrap up
🎦 47:25-48:03⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and signs off.
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