Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Logistics Hammered
Table of Contents 📖
"I just think maybe the Russians are more on their knees than we might think."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel and mentions that a lot has happened.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:26-01:24⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting significant Russian personnel losses (almost 1,400) as well as the loss of 18 tanks, 22 armoured personnel vehicles, and 39 artillery systems. He emphasizes that even with a 30% margin of error, the sustained losses are unsustainable for Russia.
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Evidence of Russian Equipment Shortages
🎦 01:24-03:01⏩
Jonathan highlights the increasing use of suboptimal vehicles by Russian forces, citing Andrew Perpetua's (a trusted source) observations about the presence of motorbikes, ATVs, and other makeshift vehicles on the front lines. He suggests that this is a strong indication of dwindling equipment stockpiles and a sign that Russia is struggling to replace its losses. He questions the feasibility of Russia's initial objectives, given their current reliance on infantry-based attacks.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 03:01-03:28⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian losses which are minimal compared to Russia's.
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Russian Losses - Oryx Update
🎦 03:28-06:32⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest visually confirmed losses from Oryx (maintained by Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans). He notes the destruction of two Russian rail ferries, an Strela-10 short-range air defense system, and electronic warfare equipment. Significant losses include tanks (T-80s, T-72s, T-90Ms), infantry fighting vehicles, and a large number of trucks and civilian vehicles, further emphasizing the logistical challenges faced by Russia. He observes an increase in the use of drones for attacks.
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Targeting of Russian Logistics
🎦 06:32-08:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the strategic targeting of Russian logistics, particularly the recent strikes on or near the Kerch Bridge. He highlights the importance of disrupting Russian supply lines across the Kerch Strait, as heavy loads are unable to traverse the damaged bridge. He notes the destruction of two KS-701 transport and landing boats by Ukrainian "Sea Baby" naval drones.
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Ukrainian SBU Neutralises Russian Radar
🎦 08:18-09:47⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) successfully disabling a Russian Nebo-SVU radar system in northern Crimea. This follows a previous incident where a similar radar was targeted at a Luhansk air base. The destruction of these high-value radar installations, along with ongoing efforts to dismantle S-300 and S-400 batteries, is seen as a deliberate strategy to weaken Russian air defenses, potentially in preparation for the deployment of F-16 fighter jets.
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Air-to-Air Drone Combat
🎦 09:47-14:15⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of air-to-air drone combat, speculating that a Ukrainian fixed-wing drone successfully engaged and neutralized a Russian counterpart. Referencing Andrew Perpetua's assessment, he highlights the potential game-changing implications of Ukraine's ability to counter Russian reconnaissance drones. This capability could significantly hinder Russia's intelligence gathering and targeting capabilities, potentially shifting the balance of the conflict. Jonathan expresses cautious optimism, acknowledging the difficulty faced by Ukraine but emphasizing the importance of recognizing the challenges faced by Russia. He ponders whether the lack of sustained Russian drone and missile attacks indicates a depletion of their stockpiles, further suggesting potential weakness in their position.
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Further Evidence of Depleted Russian Stockpiles
🎦 14:15-19:40⏩
Jonathan cites analysis from "John P" on Twitter, known for his detailed threads on Russian equipment losses. He reveals a concerning picture of depleted Russian storage facilities, with many bases, including the 7027th base at Pospolna, completely emptied of military equipment. Similar observations are made about bases near Shchyolkino and Sozonivka, with the latter showing signs of broken-down and unusable equipment. He expresses concerns about the dwindling supply of bridging and fording equipment, further indicating Russia's logistical constraints in sustaining a prolonged conflict. He shares satellite imagery depicting the depleted state of various Russian military installations.
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Putin's Residence on Fire
🎦 19:40-21:17⏩
Jonathan reports on an incident where one of Putin's luxury properties in the Altai Republic caught fire. While the cause of the fire remains unclear, it's suggested that Ukrainian forces may be targeting such high-profile assets for their symbolic and propaganda value. Similar incidents of fires and explosions are reported in the Krasnodar region, raising further questions about potential Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil.
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Russian Strikes on Kharkiv
🎦 21:17-24:18⏩
Jonathan condemns Russia's missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, characterizing them as war crimes. He reports on the use of S-300 missiles against residential buildings, resulting in significant damage, injuries, and fatalities. He references Tim White's (another trusted source) reporting, which highlights the severity of the attacks and the rising casualty count. He expresses outrage at the deliberate targeting of civilian areas and the use of double-tap attacks, where emergency responders are targeted in the aftermath of initial strikes.
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Missile Intercepted over Kyiv
🎦 24:18-25:41⏩
Jonathan discusses a missile interception over Kyiv, presenting video evidence to refute Russian claims of debris damage. He highlights the missile's low altitude, suggesting a close proximity to its intended target. He notes that while debris from the interception caused power outages and minor damage to vehicles, the successful engagement prevented more serious consequences.
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Ukraine Strikes Luhansk, Krasnodar and Novorossiysk
🎦 25:41-29:45⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian-occupied Luhansk, specifically mentioning an explosion and fire at a gas pipeline in Pervomaisk attributed to HIMARS rockets. He also covers Ukrainian attacks on oil depots in Russia's Krasnodar region, speculating on the use of Ukrainian-made Neptune missiles, known for their longer range and destructive capability. Additionally, he mentions air raid sirens and potential drone attacks in Novorossiysk, a key Russian port city on the Black Sea, highlighting the disruption to Russian naval operations.
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Ukraine's Systematic Degradation of Russian Logistics
🎦 29:45-38:14⏩
Jonathan analyses the strategic significance of Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics, emphasizing a deliberate campaign to cripple Russia's ability to supply its forces. He cites evidence of attacks on rail ferries, port infrastructure, and oil depots in and around Crimea. He notes the rarity of rail ferries and the long-term impact their destruction will have on Russian logistics in Crimea, Mariupol, and Berdyansk. Jonathan highlights the economic implications of these attacks, suggesting they could disrupt Russian trade with Turkey and further isolate Russia internationally. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the long game being played by Ukraine and the potential for future actions building upon these successes.
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Russian Attacks on Odessa
🎦 38:14-41:31⏩
Jonathan contrasts Ukraine's efforts with Russia's ongoing attacks on Odessa and its surrounding port infrastructure. He condemns the systematic targeting of grain storage facilities and export routes, highlighting Russia's intent to cripple Ukraine's economy and its ability to fund the war effort. He points out the interconnectedness of the conflict, with both sides aiming to undermine each other's logistical and economic lifelines.
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US Relaxes Rules on Targeting Russia
🎦 41:31-45:54⏩
Jonathan expresses disappointment with the Biden administration's decision to partially relax restrictions on using Western-supplied weapons to strike Russian territory. While this change allows Ukraine to target Russian assets involved in attacks on Kharkiv, the limited scope of the authorization is seen as insufficient. He critiques the belated nature of the decision, noting the frustration felt by many over the slow pace of Western support. Despite acknowledging the potential benefits of targeting Russian forces and air bases near Kharkiv, he argues that the concession is minimal and unlikely to significantly alter the course of the war.
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Germany Authorises Use of Weapons Against Russia
🎦 45:54-47:36⏩
Jonathan welcomes Germany's explicit authorization for Ukraine to use German-supplied weapons against targets within Russia. This follows the US decision and signals a potential shift in Western policy towards allowing Ukraine to strike back at Russian territory. While the authorization excludes long-range Taurus missiles, it paves the way for the use of German MARS multiple launch rocket systems.
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Jonathan's concerns about Social Media and the Trump Case
🎦 47:36-50:26⏩
Jonathan expresses concerns about the potential for social media manipulation following the conviction of Donald Trump in a New York court case. He highlights how social media algorithms can be used to push specific narratives, citing the sudden surge of pro-Trump content following the verdict. He worries that platforms like Twitter, under Elon Musk's leadership, could become powerful tools for amplifying pro-Trump and potentially anti-Ukraine sentiment. He expresses disappointment over the actions of Republican lawmakers who continue to support Trump, contrasting their behavior with individuals like Adam Kinzinger, whom he sees as a voice of reason and a strong advocate for Ukraine.
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The Environmental Impact of War
🎦 50:26-51:03⏩
Jonathan shows footage of the environmental devastation caused by the war, noting the destruction of ecosystems and the long-lasting impact on nature. He reiterates the need for a swift end to the conflict, emphasizing the importance of Ukrainian victory for the sake of humanity.
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Wrap up
🎦 51:03-51:11⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, reminding them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off with a message of hope and support for Ukraine.
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