Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"The Russians aren't so incompetent that they can't do any kind of offensive and make any kind of gains. We would expect them to make gains if they're doing a major spring offensive."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a frontline update for 5 February 2023. He notes that Russia appears to be in an offensive posture up and down the front lines, either conducting offensives or preparing for future ones. He apologises for the video being a bit late due to Sunday commitments.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Daily Losses
According to Ukrainian reports, Russian losses for the day include:
- 700 liquidated personnel (average)
- 2 tanks
- 11 APCs
- 6 artillery systems
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 2 drones
- 10 vehicles and fuel tanks
Jonathan notes it is good to see anti-aircraft systems taken out from a Ukrainian perspective, as this is key to eventually achieving air superiority.
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Kharkiv Shelling
Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, was hit by multiple S300 missiles. One rocket hit a residential building in the city centre, while another struck an educational institution. At least five people were wounded. Jonathan condemns Russia's actions as despicable.
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Northeastern Front (Kupiansk, Svatove, Kreminna)
Pro-Russian sources claim Russian forces have conducted successful offensive actions near Dvorichna, pushing Ukrainian forces to the western outskirts. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. Russian assault groups are also reportedly attacking Ukrainian positions in:
- Horobivka
- Synkivka
- Petropavlivka
- Holubivka
Artillery is providing fire support. The 106th battalion of the 109th Territorial Defence Brigade is said to be tied up in this sector.
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Wide-Scale Russian Offensive
Russian forces are reportedly storming outposts in multiple sectors:
- Kupiansk
- Svatove
- Lyman
- Siversk
They are also actively advancing in Bakhmut. The number of daily Ukrainian losses is increasing, while their rate of replenishment has decreased. The simultaneous offensives prevent Ukraine from concentrating on holding one area, increasing the effectiveness of Russian forces.
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Lyman-Siversk Area
Russian forces launched large counter-attacks west of Kreminna, with heavy fighting continuing. In Bilohorivka, there are conflicting claims about whether Russian forces have captured the settlement or are still fighting for control. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near:
- Kreminna itself
- Torske
- Verkhnokamianske
Bakhmut
In Bakhmut, the situation remains difficult for Ukrainian forces:
- Wagner Group fighters have entered Stupky in the north, with intense fighting in built-up areas
- Heavy fighting continues in the industrial area to the east and residential areas to the south
- Russian units are attacking towards Chasiv Yar and the Bakhmut highway
- Wagner has advanced to within 1.5km of the highway, though this claim is disputed
The Ukrainian command is sending reinforcements to Chasiv Yar from Kostyantynivka, where additional defensive lines are being prepared. Russian artillery is heavily shelling Ukrainian positions. There are conflicting reports about a partial Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut's northern suburbs and the departure of the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, which may suggest preparations for a possible surrender. However, Ukrainian officials deny this and state they are still reinforcing Bakhmut.
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Avdiivka-Donetsk City Area
The ISW notes there have not been any significant Russian attacks in the Avdiivka area in the last three days, possibly due to Russian efforts being concentrated elsewhere. In Marinka, Russian sources claim their forces conducted an assault near Pobjeda and cleared a Ukrainian fortified position in the western part of the city. However, the supporting footage appears to be from earlier in the winter, so these claims are questionable.
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Vuhledar
The situation around Vuhledar remains dangerous, with the Russians increasing infantry and artillery in the area:
- Heavy combat is occurring in the southern and eastern dacha areas
- Russians attempted to outflank Vuhledar from the east but suffered losses and retreated to Mykilske
- The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade has been largely destroyed after repeated failed assaults
- Russians may be preparing for a grinding, attritional offensive similar to Bakhmut
There are reports of 15-30,000 Russian troops, including 3,000 Chechen fighters, accumulating in Mariupol. This could indicate preparations for an offensive push towards Vuhledar.
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Southern Front
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Tor air defence system near Novokakhovka in Kherson Oblast. Artillery duels continue along the Dnipro River. No significant updates were available regarding the situation in Crimea or HIMARS strikes behind Russian lines.
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Wrap Up
In summary, the Russians are putting pressure along the front lines from Kupiansk to Vuhledar, with the exception of Avdiivka. It remains to be seen whether this is the start of Russia's major spring offensive. Jonathan cautions that if you are pro-Ukrainian, it is important to manage expectations - the Russians are likely to capture some territory in the coming weeks and months. The question is whether they will pursue an attritional strategy or a more concentrated breakthrough attempt. Thank you for watching. Please like, subscribe and share to help the channel grow. Take care!
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