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Ukraine Conflict: 7-Day Full Frontline Update

Front Line Thursday, 26th December 2024, 18:45
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
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Table of Contents 📖

Topic IDTopic TitleTimestamp
1Hello Team00:00-00:09
2Kursk00:10-03:18
3Kharkiv03:18-03:36
4Oskil River03:36-05:08
5Bakhmut05:09-05:49
6Turetsk and New York05:49-06:35
7Turetsk06:35-06:47
8Prokrovsk06:48-07:30
9Myrnafrad07:31-07:43
10South of Prokrovsk07:43-08:04
11Karakovo08:04-08:17
12South of Karakovo08:17-08:35
13Uspenivka08:35-09:05
14Velika Novosilka09:05-09:39
15General situation09:39-10:53
16Robotina10:53-11:05
17Kamyanka11:05-12:24
18Kherson12:26-14:01
19General thoughts14:01-14:47
20Azerbaijani plane14:47-15:04
21Christmas Bombings15:04-16:07
22Ukraine's long range weapons16:07-16:44
23Both sides are weak16:44-17:08
24Finland and undersea cables17:08-17:47
25Russia making blunders17:47-18:39
26Wrap up18:39-18:48

"If I was Russia, I wouldn't be doing things to really annoy third party countries. I wouldn't be cutting undersea cables because you're giving the excuse for other countries to say, no, we don't want Ukraine to give up X, Y and Z because Russia really are the bad guys."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:09
Jonathan welcomes the team to the 7 day frontline update video, stating that it's taken a while to record this due to the time constraints he's been under. He states that producing these videos on a daily basis as well as videos covering other events around the world is very time consuming. He explains that the frontline videos are important as they give an important insight into the micro level of what's happening in the war.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kursk

🎦 00:10-03:18
Jonathan displays the map with the latest updates, explaining that viewers should be able to see some fairly sizeable changes given that the update covers 7 days. Starting in the Kursk region, Russian forces are making advances to the west of Malaya Lachnia, closing in a pocket of control or grey zone. Russian forces are also attempting to advance from the north. This has been going on for a long time, with heavy losses. Jonathan believes that Russia will eventually take this area unless something changes e.g. Russian forces culminate. However, he thinks that this is unlikely as they will continue taking North Koreans so that they have a long term supply of troops. Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces out of Cheskoskoye-Prorychnoe, putting it into the grey zone. However, further south, the Russians have taken the town back from the Ukrainians. Andrew Perpetua had the Russian defensive line shown by pink pins, but he has now pushed it right back to this area, indicating that the Russians are now in control of Cherkesskaya Konopelka. Suriyak maps is also showing that the Russians have taken control over a triangle of land there. Andrew Perpetua somewhat agrees with this. Overall, the situation is challenging for Ukrainian forces in this area due to the sheer volume of troops that Russia can throw at the problem.

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Kharkiv

🎦 03:18-03:36
Bypassing Kharkiv, where there is a bit of a stasis, Jonathan moves on to the area along the Oskil River.

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Oskil River

🎦 03:36-05:08
Russian forces have taken control right up to the Oskil River and have crossed the river into the Dvorichne area, which is a real challenge for Ukrainian forces. They are extending their control west of the river towards Kalinov and Holubivka before Kupyansk. Jonathan states that he is worried about the Russians being the other side of the river here. Further south, the situation is less concerning even though Andrew Perpetua is showing that Russian forces have made significant gains, equalising the in and out front lines around Pishcheni as they move towards the Oskil River. Lots of fighting has occurred around Klyuk.

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Bakhmut

🎦 05:09-05:49
Moving past the Tvilska, Terny, Serebryansky Forest and Kramina (where there are no changes), the situation is a mixed bag in the Bakhmut area. Russian forces have taken some land to the north of Chazvy Yar according to Suriyak Maps, but Ukrainian forces have pushed them back in the centre around a large building. The situation here hasn't changed too much, which is good news for Ukrainian forces.

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Turetsk and New York

🎦 05:49-06:35
Suriyak Maps shows that Russian forces have advanced up the railway line north of New York towards Lernidivka and Shcherbnevka. Andrew Perpetua is now agreeing that Russian forces have control over a large bridgehead there. Russian forces have also made small gains inside Turetsk.

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Turetsk

🎦 06:35-06:47
Turetsk is a bit of a hellhole, with Russian forces gaining more and more territory. The majority of Turetsk is under Russian control, which is challenging for Ukrainian forces. The desperation for boots on the ground is evident all over the front line.

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Prokrovsk

🎦 06:48-07:30
Jonathan explains that there has been challenging news for Prokrovsk as it is going to be attacked from two flanks. He shows the previous Russian defensive line (Suriyak Maps - darker pins) and where Andrew Perpetua had it. Both mappers now broadly agree on what has happened south of Prokrovsk - Ukrainian forces are being pushed back.

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Myrnafrad

🎦 07:31-07:43
There has not been too much change to the east of Prokrovsk towards Myrnafrad as this is where the Ukrainian fortifications and trench lines are. However, Jonathan does not know what the trench line situation is directly to the south.

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South of Prokrovsk

🎦 07:43-08:04
Russian forces seem to be having more joy coming through to the south of Prokrovsk and are now very close, just mere kilometres away. They have made fairly substantial gains all the way down this front line.

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Karakovo

🎦 08:04-08:17
Russian forces are inching through Karakovo but haven't advanced hugely in the week, which is good news for Ukrainian forces. However, they have been filling in the gaps further to the south.

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South of Karakovo

🎦 08:17-08:35
Russian forces have made progress in the low ground area where the river comes up here. This area has a number of towns - Ilnivka, Romanivka, and Hanivka. There were claims that Russian forces had surrounded Ukrainian forces in Hanivka, with some prisoners taken, but Jonathan has not seen any visual evidence of this.

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Uspenivka

🎦 08:35-09:05
Russian forces have also pushed Ukrainian forces out of Uspenivka. Jonathan was expecting a little more Russian control in this area for a 7-day update, so he wonders if they are slowing down or meeting more resistance.

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Velika Novosilka

🎦 09:05-09:39
Another worrying area is Velika Novosilka, where Russian forces have had success to the north at Novyi Kumar, having previously been pushed out. If they continue coming up through and up the Mokri Yali river towards Vlika Novosilkov from the south, taking it from the east and then from the north as well, they would surround Velika Novosilka on three sides. This is looking like a challenging environment, with Russian forces taking more land further to the east as well.

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General situation

🎦 09:39-10:53
Jonathan believes that what we are seeing is what we've seen for the last few weeks, but it is really worrying. Ukraine is struggling for boots on the ground and needs reinforcements. They need Russia to be suffering outside of the frontline areas in terms of economy, materials and recruitment. However, the Russians still seem to be holding on. Jonathan has been saying that Russia may be throwing everything they can at the Ukrainians before January 20th (the inauguration of Trump) as they are hoping to have as much territory as possible so that if and when they are forced into negotiations, they are in a commanding position and can claim they are the powerful force and will stop the war if they can keep the land they currently control.

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Robotina

🎦 10:53-11:05
In the Robotina area, Russian forces have made some small gains there and at Nesterienka, further to the west of Robotina.

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Kamyanka

🎦 11:05-12:24
There have been some gains for Ukrainian forces in pushing back around Kamyanka. There were reports that Ukrainian forces had forced Russian forces back from several positions there and occupied it themselves. Other channels are reporting even larger gains in the area for Ukrainian forces. This is a bit of a "wib" as they are suffering most other places on the front line. Andrew Perpetua reports that Russian drones have attacked Ukrainian positions in Kamyanka, proving Ukrainian advances, with some geolocations of the activity taking place, showing that this is indeed what is happening. Jonathan shows where the Russians are dropping munitions, which one would assume is where the Ukrainians are for them to be dropping munitions there. This shows that the Russians are ceding some of this territory to the Ukrainians.

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Kherson

🎦 12:26-14:01
There is news of a lot of activity in Kherson. The Russians are possibly trying to ensure they have as much territory as possible, trying to attack everywhere, including in places that Jonathan doesn't think is worth their while. He states that sending people across a river is much more consuming and attritional than sending those same people across land. He suggests that they would have more success putting those same people on the front line. Russian forces have intensified shelling in the Kherson region and are trying to gain a foothold with deep reconnaissance groups. All attempts to capture parts of the high bank (right bank) of the Dnipro River have so far been unsuccessful, according to Alexander Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration. Jonathan notes that it is hard to supply troops on the right bank and questions why they would want to take it again.

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General thoughts

🎦 14:01-14:47
Jonathan thinks it is looking pretty challenging on a micro level for Ukraine, but geopolitically and economically, Russia is seriously on the back foot. More and more things are not going Russia's way.

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Azerbaijani plane

🎦 14:47-15:04
One example of things not going Russia's way is the loss of the Azeri airplane. It seems like the Azerbaijanis have now officially announced that the Russians shot that plane down and refused to let it land. It had to go across the Caspian Sea and then crashed. Jonathan believes this is embarrassing for the Russians and problematic politically speaking.

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Christmas Bombings

🎦 15:04-16:07
There is not a lot of appetite for support of Russia concerning the Christmas bombings that they've just partaken in. Jonathan is confused by some of the outbursts, claims and statements from certain US politicians who are starting to suggest that Ukraine should give up Crimea and other territories in order to just start negotiations. He sees this as insanity, demanding that all the leverage is taken out of Ukraine's hands even before negotiations start. It will be interesting to see how the next year plays out as Jonathan is not sure that Ukraine will want to do what the Republicans in America are suggesting. He questions whether they have enough in the tank in terms of personnel reserves to be able to hold on and continue prosecuting this defensive war.

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Ukraine's long range weapons

🎦 16:07-16:44
There are a lot of unknowns, but it is really difficult for the Ukrainians. However, they have a lot of weapons coming online - distance drones and missiles of their own production. Some people are saying that January could be a month where they just start hammering the crap out of the Russians. This could give them momentum, not on the battlefield but in the air with missiles and drones, so that Russia are economically on their knees leading up to forced negotiations.

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Both sides are weak

🎦 16:44-17:08
There are so many variables to contend with, but Jonathan believes that both sides are weak. He thinks Russia is much more long-term weak than Ukraine. Ukraine's weakness is merely in human beings, and this is what he has been saying for over 18 months. If only Western countries had really backed Ukraine to the hilt previously, then they would be in a much better position now.

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Finland and undersea cables

🎦 17:08-17:47
Other things to add to the woes of Russia is that Finland is being pretty hardcore on what's gone on with these undersea cables linking Finland to Estonia. There have been press conferences on Christmas Day and Boxing Day where they are talking about the threat of what Russia is doing. Jonathan believes that Russia are not doing things to make it easy for themselves.

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Russia making blunders

🎦 17:47-18:39
Jonathan thinks Russia are making some serious blunders. If he were Russia, he wouldn't be doing things to really annoy third-party countries or cutting undersea cables because this gives other countries the excuse to say that they don't want Ukraine to give up territories because Russia really are the bad guys. If they weren't doing all of this, they might have much more support from other countries to force Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that has them giving up their territories just to make this thing stop. But Russia are not making it easy for other countries to do that by having these hybrid warfare attacks on these other countries. Jonathan thinks the whole war was stupid from Russia's point of view, but the insanity of what they are doing now, he just can't make sense of it.

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Wrap up

🎦 18:39-18:48
Jonathan asks people to let him know what they think, and says that he will be doing a geopolitical news update in a short period of time.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

I was able to understand everything in the transcript and tasks. All Ukrainian place names were spelled correctly in the transcript.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

The user wants me to summarise a video transcript from the YouTube channel ATP Geopolitics. I need to follow a specific XML structure and adhere to a number of rules outlined in the prompt. I will break the task down into 6 sub-tasks. TASK 1 - TITLE, DATE and PART Extract Title: I will extract the title from the provided YouTube video title, removing the date and part information. Extract Date: I will extract the date from the YouTube video title and convert it from YYYYMMDD to DD/MM/YYYY format. Extract Part: I will extract the part (letter after the date) from the YouTube video title. If no letter is present, the part tag will be empty. Output: I will output the title, date, and part in XML format as specified. TASK 2 - TOPIC TITLES Identify Topics: I will read through the transcript and identify distinct topics discussed. Create Topic Titles: For each topic, I will create a concise, specific, and quantified title. Special Topics: The first topic will always be "Hello Team" (introductory remarks), and the last topic will always be "Wrap up" (closing remarks). Number Topics: I will number each topic sequentially, starting from 1. Output: I will output each topic title in XML format with the appropriate ID. TASK 3 - TOPIC TIMESTAMPS Identify Timestamps: For each topic, I will identify the start and end timestamps from the transcript. Format Timestamps: Timestamps will be formatted as MM:SS (under 1 hour) or HH:MM:SS (over 1 hour). Multiple Timeframes: If a topic appears in multiple, non-continuous timeframes, I will separate them with commas. Output: I will output the timestamps for each topic in XML format, ensuring the ID matches the corresponding topic title. TASK 4 - TOPIC SUMMARIES Summarise Topics: For each topic, I will write a concise summary of the key points, including relevant context, opinions, and insights from Jonathan. Use Markdown: I will use markdown for emphasis (bold, italic, underline) sparingly. Include Credits: I will include any sources or individuals credited by Jonathan. Convey Tone: I will try to capture Jonathan's personality, humour, and passion in the summaries. Correct Errors: I will correct any spelling mistakes, misheard words, or grammatical errors in the transcript. I will also ensure all Ukrainian place names are spelled correctly according to Ukrainian usage. Output: I will output each topic summary in XML format with the appropriate ID. TASK 5 - QUOTE Select Quote: I will choose a significant, meaningful, thought-provoking, or humorous quote from the transcript. Format Quote: I will ensure the quote is concise and makes sense out of context. Correct Errors: I will correct any spelling mistakes, misheard words, or grammatical errors in the quote. Output: I will output the quote in XML format. TASK 6 - QUERIES Identify Issues: I will note any aspects of the tasks or transcript that I did not understand. Seek Clarification: I will be honest about any uncertainties to ensure accuracy. Output: I will output any queries in XML format. I will then assemble the output from all tasks into a single XML structure as specified in the prompt, paying close attention to the tags and their order. I need to be particularly careful with the tags, making sure they are closed correctly to avoid breaking the page. I will also ensure my response uses British English throughout.

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ATP-AI-Bot

Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce, J.R. (Cartographer)

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos