Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Imagine if I did that right? I was some kind of long-term project for the, for the, um, for the Kremlin. How effective would that be that I've generated like 43,000 subscribers who are like wonderful people, and most of you are along with me, and we've got this relationship, and you trust me, and I trust you, and it's great. And then suddenly, I start slipping in some things, and then just turn bit by bit. But I've got you with me. You've got that psychological loyalty. And then, after a year, we're suddenly on the other side and I'm slanging off Zelensky and I'm saying, you know, nobody should be helping Ukraine and actually Putin probably was right in the beginning. Imagine how devastating that would be but how possibly effective. I might not take all of you with me but there would be a number of you no doubt that would be susceptible to that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video - a Ukraine War News Update, the first part for 28th June 2024 and notes that he'll start with the Ukrainian General Staff figures.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Daily Losses
🎦 00:10-03:05⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that the figures are significant. He's especially interested in the high number of Russian tanks lost (24), given that he'd previously observed low Russian tank losses and speculated that Russia might be running low. He acknowledges that this could be an anomaly and that Russia is still producing and repairing tanks. Jonathan also highlights the high number of artillery systems lost by Russia (60), suggesting that Ukraine must have been very active to achieve this. He mentions a rumour that Russia's S-500 radar system was hit, but states that he has seen no evidence of this.
Return to top⤴️
Andrew Perpetua's Loss Statistics
🎦 03:05-06:13⏩
Jonathan moves on to Andrew Perpetua's loss statistics. He notes that the Ukrainian losses appear to be high compared to recent days, with a ratio of 1.5 Russian losses for every Ukrainian loss, which isn't good enough for Ukraine. He observes that Ukraine actually lost more combat units (12) than Russia (10) which is not good. He examines the details of the equipment lost by both sides, pointing out that Russia has lost a number of older equipment such as D-20 and D-30 howitzers, which should really not be seeing service in this conflict. Jonathan also analyses footage of Russian Lancet loitering munition strikes, which suggests that the Russians are often overstating the effectiveness of their strikes.
Return to top⤴️
US Presidential Debate - Biden and Trump on Ukraine
🎦 06:13-07:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent US Presidential debate, specifically comments made by Donald Trump about Ukraine. Trump claimed that Ukraine "is not going to win the war", that they are "running out of people", and blamed President Biden for this, citing his "stupid decisions". Jonathan refutes these claims, highlighting the positive impact of US military aid on Ukraine's battlefield performance and arguing that aid should have been sent sooner. He criticises Trump's stance as "ostensibly utter nonsense" and expresses his belief that Biden should have been more forceful in his response. Jonathan also notes that Biden, correctly in his view, stated that Putin "will not stop at Ukraine" and labelled him a "war criminal".
Return to top⤴️
Viewer Comments - Russian Casualties and Survivability
🎦 07:25-10:19⏩
Jonathan addresses viewer comments on a topic he discussed in a previous video, where he expressed surprise at the number of Russian soldiers who appear to escape from destroyed military vehicles. He acknowledges the points made by several viewers that many of those who escape may have sustained internal injuries that are not immediately apparent, and may succumb to their injuries later. He highlights a comment from viewer "Eliana Freely", who shared an anecdote about a 30-minute firefight she witnessed on video where neither side sustained any casualties. Jonathan agrees that humans are remarkably adept at surviving in situations where they seemingly shouldn't, but reiterates that unseen injuries could have long-term consequences.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Personnel Losses - Sustainability and Implications
🎦 10:19-14:14⏩
Jonathan discusses an important point raised by Phillips O'Brien, who argues that the Russian military does not have an unlimited supply of soldiers and that their losses are unsustainable in the long term. He notes that he disagrees with some of the conclusions made by Jack Watling in a recent interview, specifically regarding Russian casualty figures and equipment production. However, he acknowledges that Russia is struggling to replace its losses, particularly amongst its officer corps, which will have a significant impact on their ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations. Jonathan cites Timofey Milovanov, former economics minister of Ukraine, who states that Russia is recruiting roughly the same number of new soldiers each month as it is losing, suggesting that they are struggling to build a meaningful reserve force. He then highlights an insightful point made by Milovanov: Russia is choosing to maintain this high rate of attrition by attacking all along the front line. They could reduce losses by concentrating their forces in a smaller number of areas, but they are choosing not to.
Return to top⤴️
Why is Russia Maintaining a High Rate of Attrition?
🎦 14:14-19:21⏩
Jonathan explores the question of why Russia might be choosing to maintain this high rate of attrition. He posits that the Russians could potentially conserve manpower by limiting their offensive operations and focusing on rebuilding their forces. Milovanov suggests that Russia's decision to accept high casualties may stem from a fear that waiting will only make victory more difficult in the future. He argues that Russia might be concerned about the increasing level of military support being provided to Ukraine by the West and the potential for Ukraine to develop a long-range strike capability that could target critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. Milovanov believes that Russia is pushing hard now because they calculate that they are in a race against time. They need to achieve a decisive victory before the balance of power shifts even further in Ukraine's favour. Jonathan agrees that this is a plausible explanation for Russia's behaviour.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Su-25 Shot Down in Donetsk
🎦 19:21-20:40⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft was shot down by the Ukrainian National Guard using MANPADS in the Donetsk region on June 23rd. He notes that the video footage of the incident is of poor quality, but it appears to show an explosion in the air followed by an object falling to the ground.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Artillery Losses - Analysis of D-30 Howitzer Losses
🎦 20:40-23:13⏩
Jonathan returns to the topic of Russian artillery losses, citing analysis by open-source intelligence analyst "Ben Tanmi" who has been tracking the number of D-30 howitzers destroyed in June. Jonathan explains that while visual confirmation of artillery losses can be difficult to obtain, Tanmi has identified a record number of D-30 howitzers destroyed in June using open-source information, 48 in total, representing 42% of all identifiable Russian tube artillery losses for the month. This is significantly higher than previous months and supports the theory that Russia is being forced to use older equipment from its stockpiles to make up for its losses. Jonathan notes that this will inevitably lead to a degradation of Russian artillery capabilities over time, even if they are able to maintain a high rate of fire, as the older guns are less accurate, have shorter ranges, and are more prone to malfunctions.
Return to top⤴️
Image of Destroyed/Abandoned Russian Equipment
🎦 23:14-23:24⏩
Jonathan shares a striking image of a large quantity of destroyed or abandoned Russian military equipment, describing it as "incredible". He jokes, "Welcome to Mad Max 2024".
Return to top⤴️
Debate on the Sustainability of Russian Military Production
🎦 23:24-25:41⏩
Jonathan addresses the ongoing debate about the long-term sustainability of Russian military production. He thanks Andrew Perpetua for his insights and for engaging with his content. He refers to a statement made by Jack Watling in which he argued that Russia will never be in a position where it is unable to produce new military vehicles. Jonathan, and Perpetua, disagree with this assessment, arguing that while Russia will likely be able to produce some equipment, it will be insufficient to offset their losses. He backs this up by noting that based on the claimed Russian production figures of 40 tanks per month, and the rate at which they are being destroyed (3 per day by Perpetua's estimates, 24 were claimed destroyed on the 27th June alone by the UGS), Russia is losing tanks far faster than they can replace them. Perpetua argues that Russia would need to produce over 2000 armoured vehicles and a similar number of artillery pieces each year to sustain the war at its current intensity, something which they are clearly unable to do, and that as a result, their equipment levels will continue to decline. Jonathan agrees with Perpetua's assessment and expresses his disagreement with Jack Watling's more optimistic outlook for Russia, stating his belief that Watling is "very much more on a dooming point of view".
Return to top⤴️
Russian Claims of HIMARS and MARS II destruction
🎦 25:41-27:39⏩
Jonathan examines recent Russian claims to have destroyed HIMARS and MARS II systems. He highlights two videos shared by "War Vehicle Tracker" that purport to show a destroyed HIMARS and a Ukrainian M270 MARS II Forward Arming and Refueling Point (FARP). He notes that the first video offers no clear evidence, while the second, though showing a significant fire, fails to definitively prove the presence of the MARS II launcher. Jonathan expresses concern that the presence of Russian medium-range reconnaissance drones in these areas could indicate a vulnerability in Ukrainian logistics.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Bombardment of Chasiv Yar
🎦 27:39-29:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing Russian bombardment of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces have been using thermobaric weapons. He praises the Ukrainians for their defence of the town, which has been subjected to intense artillery and air strikes. He emphasises the urgency for Ukraine to receive F-16s and Patriot missile systems to counter the aerial bombardment, but cautions against rushing their introduction before the necessary training and infrastructure are in place. He also notes that while countering Russian TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launchers is relatively straightforward due to their limited 6km range, the aerial bombardment poses a more significant challenge that needs to be addressed.
Return to top⤴️
Fires in Russia - Warehouse Fire and Construction Market Fire
🎦 29:10-30:06⏩
Jonathan reports on a series of fires that have occurred in Russia. A large fire engulfed a warehouse in Lyubim in the Yaroslav Oblast, covering an area of 4,800 square metres. Another fire broke out at a construction market in the Moscow region.
Return to top⤴️
Fire at Russian Army Warehouse in Lyubim
🎦 30:06-30:14⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the warehouse fire in Lyubim, revealing that it was being used to store uniforms and shoes for the Russian army. This suggests that the fire was likely the result of sabotage and not an accident. The size of the fire (5,000 square metres) highlights the significant logistical challenges this will pose for the Russians.
Return to top⤴️
Atesh Partisans Target Railway Line in Kherson
🎦 30:14-30:46⏩
Jonathan highlights the activities of the Atesh Partisans, a group of Ukrainian partisans operating in Russian-occupied territories. The group has claimed responsibility for a recent attack on a railway line used by the Russians to transport heavy equipment and ammunition from Crimea to the Kherson region. While the damage was relatively minor (a small fire in a relay box), Jonathan emphasises that these low-risk attacks can still disrupt Russian logistics. He points out that these types of attacks are easy to carry out and difficult to prevent.
Return to top⤴️
Plagiarism of Military Analysis
🎦 30:46-32:11⏩
Jonathan issues a correction regarding an article he used in a previous video, which he attributed to an account called "The Analyst". The actual author of the article, whose name was not disclosed, contacted Jonathan to inform him that the article had been plagiarised from their Telegram channel. Jonathan apologises for the mistake and reiterates that he cannot personally verify the source of every piece of information he uses. He explains that he relies on a curated group of trusted sources but acknowledges that mistakes can happen. He thanks the author for reaching out and clarifies that the quality of the analysis in the article was not in question, only its attribution.
Return to top⤴️
UK Intelligence Update - Russian UAV Campaign in Ukraine
🎦 32:11-34:29⏩
Jonathan moves on to the UK Ministry of Defence's daily intelligence update, which focuses on the Russian UAV campaign in Ukraine. The report highlights Russia's reliance on relatively cheap, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to compensate for their inability to establish air superiority over Ukraine. He notes that these UAVs are primarily used for suppressing Ukrainian air defences and striking targets beyond the range of their artillery. The report then highlights a recent strike carried out by the Ukrainian Navy and Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) against a Russian airbase at Yas’k in Russia on June 21st. This base is one of at least five being used by Russia to launch drone attacks on Ukraine. The Ukrainians claim to have destroyed 120 UAVs of various types in the attack and to have wounded nine Russian personnel. Jonathan emphasises the significance of Ukraine targeting Russia's drone capabilities and notes that this is likely to have a disruptive effect on Russian operations, although possibly only in the short term as Russia will probably disperse its drone operations to less vulnerable locations in response. Jonathan takes a sip of his tea, commenting that it is not hot enough because he had to wait so long.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Strike on Cape Chauda
🎦 34:29-35:11⏩
Jonathan discusses another Ukrainian strike against a Russian drone base, this time at Cape Chauda in Crimea. Satellite imagery reveals that the base has been extensively damaged, with fires spreading to buildings within the military unit. He notes that this is one of several bases used by the Russians to launch Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones against Ukraine, and that the strike demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to proactively targeting these facilities rather than simply trying to shoot down the drones once they are in the air.
Return to top⤴️
Rumoured ATACMS Strike on Russian S-500 System in Crimea
🎦 35:11-35:46⏩
Jonathan discusses rumours circulating that Ukraine has used ATACMS ballistic missiles to destroy a Russian S-500 air defence system in Crimea. He notes that this is just a rumour at this stage, with no confirmed evidence. The rumour states that the S-500 system was deployed from Moscow to Crimea.
Return to top⤴️
Drone Attack on Oil Depot in Tambov
🎦 35:46-36:27⏩
Jonathan reports on a confirmed drone attack against an oil depot in the Tambov region of Russia. Anton Gerashchenko shared a video of the attack, noting that it has become almost routine to see Russian oil depots on fire. The fire is described as being "smallish". Russian sources claim that the fire has been contained and that there were no casualties.
Return to top⤴️
Explosion on Beach near Belbek Airfield, Crimea
🎦 36:27-38:52⏩
Jonathan revisits the topic of the recent explosion on a beach near Belbek airfield in Crimea. Initial claims suggested that it was caused by a Ukrainian ATACMS missile being intercepted and exploding in the air. However, further evidence suggests that it was more likely caused by a Russian air defence missile, potentially a 9K331 Tor, malfunctioning and exploding. Jonathan highlights several points that contradict the theory of a Ukrainian attack: the beach is located some distance from any likely military targets; fragments of a Russian Tor missile were found at the scene; and the limited number of submunition splashes observed in the sea (34) is not consistent with an ATACMS missile, which carries hundreds of submunitions. Jonathan uses this as an example of why relying on a single source for information can be problematic. He criticises a Twitter account, "Bild", for making inaccurate claims about the number of submunitions carried by the ATACMS missile and suggests that they are not a reliable source of information.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Guerrillas Locate Air Defence System Protecting Putin's Dacha
🎦 38:52-39:27⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian guerrillas operating inside Russia have identified the location of an air defence system protecting one of Vladimir Putin's residences in Sochi. The system, a Pantsir S1, was found 15km from Bocharov Ruchey, Putin's summer residence. Jonathan speculates that this system may become a target for Ukrainian forces in the future.
Return to top⤴️
Cholera Outbreak in Russian Ranks in Kherson
🎦 39:27-41:34⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that cholera has broken out amongst Russian soldiers in the Kherson region. This is due to a lack of bottled water, forcing soldiers to drink contaminated water from the Dnipro river or from abandoned wells. Jonathan reads a letter from a Russian soldier in Kherson, published by the Telegram channel "Two Majors", which describes the dire situation. The soldier complains about the lack of bottled water and states that soldiers are resorting to filtering water through fabric. He claims that there have already been deaths from typhoid and cholera and that the situation is as bad now as it was last year, despite promises from the Russian military to address the issue. Jonathan highlights a video he saw in which Russian soldiers were shown filtering water through baby wipes. He notes that soldiers operating in the flooded areas around the Dnipro River require significantly more water due to the hot summer conditions and that the lack of clean water is a serious problem for the Russians.
Return to top⤴️
Impact of Cholera Outbreak
🎦 41:34-42:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential impact of the cholera outbreak on Russian forces in Kherson. He highlights a comment from Trent Telenko, who points out that an adult soldier needs a minimum of 2 litres of water per day and will die after 5 days without it. Telenko also notes that the fatality rate for untreated cholera is 50%, compared to 1-2% for treated cases, highlighting the seriousness of the situation for the Russian military.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Cyber Attack on Kerch Bridge and Crimean Infrastructure
🎦 42:11-42:47⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian military intelligence has claimed responsibility for cyberattacks that caused significant disruption in Crimea. The attacks targeted the Kerch Bridge, causing traffic jams, and also knocked out accounting systems across Crimea. The attacks specifically targeted the servers of Russian propaganda outlets, telecoms operators, and the traffic control system on the Kerch Bridge. Jonathan notes that this is part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to make Crimea ungovernable for the Russians.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Disinformation Strategies
🎦 42:47-46:20⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian disinformation strategies, focusing on their use of social media to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. He explains that Russian disinformation often involves creating fake pro-Ukrainian accounts to build trust and attract a following. Once established, these accounts gradually introduce more and more anti-Ukrainian messaging, often targeting the US government and President Biden. Jonathan gives an example of how this strategy might work, suggesting that a seemingly pro-Ukrainian account could subtly shift its position over time, eventually becoming overtly anti-Ukrainian while retaining the loyalty of its followers. He expresses concern about the effectiveness of this tactic, noting that even he has encountered accounts that he initially believed to be genuine but which later revealed themselves to be pushing a pro-Russian agenda. He warns his viewers to be wary of this type of disinformation and to be critical of information they see online.
Return to top⤴️
Igor Girkin Sent to Penal Colony
🎦 46:20-47:00⏩
Jonathan reports that Igor Girkin (aka "Strelkov"), a Russian ultranationalist and former military leader, has been sentenced to prison and sent to a penal colony. Girkin, who was previously a prominent military blogger and critic of the Russian government's handling of the war in Ukraine, had requested to be released and allowed to rejoin the fighting, but his request was denied. Jonathan speculates that Girkin fears being killed, like Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Senator Dmitry Rogozin Calls for Genocide of Ukrainians
🎦 47:00-47:47⏩
Jonathan highlights a statement made by Dmitry Rogozin, a Russian senator and former head of the Roscosmos space agency, in which he called for the genocide of Ukrainians. Rogozin's statement, posted on social media, advocates for the destruction of Ukrainian culture and identity. Jonathan condemns Rogozin's statement as genocidal and an example of the extreme views held by some members of the Russian government.
Return to top⤴️
Trump's Stance on Ukraine
🎦 47:47-48:49⏩
Jonathan briefly returns to the topic of Donald Trump and his stance on Ukraine. He criticises Trump for continuing to appease Russia and for his ambiguous stance on the war. He also highlights the negative impact that the war and mobilisation have had on the Russian economy, citing a report that the oil and gas industry alone is short of 40,000 workers due to mobilisation.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 48:49-48:53⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for watching and bidding them farewell. He acknowledges that the video was longer than usual.
Return to top⤴️
