Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"I imagine they would adopt more of an active defence than trying to pressure and take land back, although there will be certain areas that they will find more important than others and will probably try very hard to wrest control back from the Russians there."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:12⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to a late night frontline update - he likes to make one every day to maintain a sense of continuity and to provide clarity for his viewers.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Overview of Frontline Changes - Mapping Methodology & Analysis

🎦 00:12-03:42⏩

Jonathan explains that there are a lot of pins on the map - mainly blue, which is good news. He explains that most of these changes are from Andriy Perpetua's mapping following analysis of recently available satellite data. This data has enabled comparisons that have not been possible due to poor weather conditions during the Autumn and Winter. This clarity has allowed for confirmation of the disposition of troops and defensive lines, based on shelling data.

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Northeast Frontline Update: Svatove-Kreminna Line

🎦 03:42-05:06⏩

• Jonathan notes that there is a lot of activity around the Bielohorivka area, but there are no changes to the frontline.
• He notes that although there are no changes to the defensive line around Vesele, Andriy Perpetua has moved the Ukrainian defensive line further into the grey zone around Bohdanivka following evidence of shelling, providing a small buffer zone in front of Chesnopopivka.
• Around Klishchiivka, claims that the Ukrainians had retaken more of the trench system are unconfirmed.

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Donetsk Frontline Update: Avdiivka, Mariinka and Velyka Novosilka

🎦 05:06-15:16⏩

• Jonathan starts with Avdiivka and notes positive Ukrainian gains north of the city around Stepova, pushing the Russians back to the railway line (confirmed by Andriy Perpetua)
• Deepstate map has made significant changes to the frontline south of Avdiivka around the Dacha area - moving the line west and expanding it into the residential area, suggesting Russian gains. This contradicts other mappers who have this area as contested/under Ukrainian control (unconfirmed).
• Tatarigami analysis suggests a stabilized situation in Avdiivka but notes recent developments have worsened the situation for Ukraine - especially in the southern residential area (Dacha area).
• The northern part of the city is shielded by the AKHZ industrial area, but the southern part is comprised of one to two-story houses, making them susceptible to artillery fire.
• If the Russians are unable to capture this area, they will erase it with artillery, deploy infantry and seize the rubble.
• Shelling analysis from 21/01 and 23/01 shows very heavy shelling, indicating Russian efforts to take the settlement.
• Tatarigami notes that the situation on the flanks remains stable, enabling Ukrainian forces to defend Avdiivka. Satellite imagery shows a continued shift of artillery fire north of Avdiivka, targeting areas near Stepova, Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove.
• The situation has worsened for Ukrainian forces due to limited artillery ammunition, a decrease in counter-battery fire and a lack of reinforcements. The Russians are exploiting these gaps, leveraging their personnel and ammunition advantages.
• Jonathan moves on to Novomokryvka (south of Mariinka). Andriy Perpetua has indicated Russian control of a large area here, although Jonathan explains that he believes this to be inaccurate based on previous analysis.
• Ukrainian forces appear to control more of the grey zone here, giving them a better buffer zone. Ukrainian forces are being shelled in these positions which would confirm they are in control of this territory.
• Around Urazhaine, in the Velyka Novosilka sector, there appears to be a Ukrainian push into the grey zone, although this may be related to the dynamic situation on the ground.
• Further south around Shivone, Ukrainian gains have pushed Russian forces back.
• Near Robotyne, Ukrainian control of territory has been confirmed, or at the very least, that it is not under Russian control and is more likely to be contested.
• Just north of Novoprokopivka, Russian forces do not appear to control all of the ground and it's possible that Ukrainian forces have been pushing south from the trench system, although this has been difficult to confirm due to the nature of the terrain (treelines and trench systems). Syriac Maps and Andriy Perpetua's maps currently differ in this area.

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Analysis: Ukrainian Gains & Counterattacks

🎦 15:16-16:24⏩

• Jonathan concludes that it is difficult to know how many of the gains made by the Ukrainians were a result of counterattacks, and how many can be attributed to confirmation of the situation on the ground through shelling analysis.
• It is unclear what Ukraine intends to do in many areas on the frontline given the challenges with boots on the ground and artillery ammunition.
• Jonathan suspects that the Ukrainians will adopt a more active defence rather than trying to take land back, although there will be certain areas that will be more important to them.

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Discussion: Incident Involving Cargo Plane in Belgorod

🎦 16:24-17:20⏩

Jonathan flags that there have been a lot of news stories about a downed cargo plane in Belgorod, with varying narratives being proposed. From what Jonathan has seen, the evidence seems to suggest that it was not a plane full of POWs, but rather a plane potentially carrying Russian mercenaries (possibly from the Wagner group), who may have been on their way to Africa. Jonathan intends to cover this in more detail in one of his news videos tomorrow.

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Wrap up

🎦 17:20-17:24⏩

Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and says goodbye.

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