Ukraine War Update: Kursk Attack News & Analysis

"The notion that Russia has an infinite and steady supply of manpower and equipment is a myth."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Kursk update for 18th August 2024. He notes that he may not be able to provide an update for a couple of days.

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Kursk Incursion Compared to Prokrosk

🎦 00:15-01:31⏩

Jonathan begins by comparing the size of the area taken by Ukrainians in the Kursk incursion to that of Prokrosk, which he highlights as a problem area for the Ukrainians. He points out that the Kursk incursion covers a significantly larger area than Prokrosk. Using a map from Andrew Perpetua, Jonathan shows viewers the area taken by Ukrainian forces. He notes that the map is likely conservative in its depiction of Ukrainian gains due to operational security measures. Unlike in other areas, the Ukrainians appear to be on the offensive in all areas of the Kursk sector.

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Ukrainian Advance and Russian Pullback

🎦 01:31-06:59⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainians are making progress in the Korovo area, with some sources indicating they have control of Komarovka, Viznevka, and Apanosovka. However, Russian sources deny these claims. The Ukrainians have destroyed bridges over the Seim River at Glushkovo and Zvanoia, aiming to disrupt Russian logistics. Jonathan notes that while the Russians have constructed a pontoon bridge, such temporary structures are vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery. He suggests that attacking Glushkovo could be a logical next step for the Ukrainians. Further west, near Tekino, the Russians have blown up their own bridges to slow the Ukrainian advance. Jonathan explains that Tekino, a settlement previously targeted by Russian forces, has been heavily attacked by Ukrainians, who are also targeting border points in the area with HIMARS. He suggests that the Ukrainian strategy might involve cutting off Russian troops in the area by advancing south from Tekino and disrupting logistics along the Seim River.

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Russian Response and Analysis of the Situation

🎦 06:59-10:10⏩

Jonathan discusses Russian responses to the Ukrainian offensive, citing a WarTranslated report that suggests Russian forces are struggling to contain the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region. He then mentions Apti Alaudinov, the leader of the Akhmat (Chechen) forces, who claimed that Ukrainian forces have been stopped wherever Akhmat units are present. Jonathan expresses skepticism toward Alaudinov's claims. He cites reports suggesting that Ukrainian forces are clearing Korovo and that the next objective might be Rilsk, while other Russian sources are sounding alarm bells about potential Ukrainian advances toward Lugov and even the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

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Analysis of the Kursk Offensive (by Tender)

🎦 10:10-23:43⏩

Jonathan shares a detailed tactical analysis of the Kursk offensive from a source called Tender, who argues that the operation has been a success story for Ukraine. The analysis covers tactical, operational, strategic, and political aspects:

• Tactical: Russians were caught off guard, with poorly prepared conscript battalions manning the border. Ukrainian forces demonstrated superior tactics and coordination, effectively using drones and electronic warfare to disrupt Russian defenses.
• Operational: Ukrainians employed maneuver warfare, bypassing larger settlements and targeting Russian rear areas and supply lines. They captured a significant number of Russian POWs, potentially as many as 2,000.
• Strategic: Ukraine's strategy of targeting a weak point in the Russian defenses and exploiting it for maximum gain is working, while Russia continues to rely on costly attrition warfare with minimal strategic gains.
• Political: Ukrainian presence on Russian soil has serious political implications for Putin, who has staked his reputation on Russian strength. The Kursk offensive exposes Russian weakness for all to see.

Tender concludes that Ukraine can win the war with continued Western support. Jonathan generally agrees with this assessment, noting the effectiveness of Ukrainian strategy and the vulnerability of Russian defenses.

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Further Analysis and Discussion of Western Aid

🎦 23:43-25:45⏩

Jonathan reiterates that the Russian reserves are weak and expresses concern over reports of Germany halting direct military support to Ukraine. He believes this is the wrong time to pull back on aid, as Ukraine has the potential to inflict a decisive defeat on Russia. Jonathan then discusses an article in The Economist by Shashank Joshi, which argues that Ukraine is justified in taking the fight to Russian soil. Joshi also argues that the West should loosen restrictions on long-range missile strikes, though Jonathan believes it may be too late for such measures to have a significant impact.

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Estimated Ukrainian Troop Deployment and Russian Defenses

🎦 25:45-30:51⏩

Citing Western military estimates, Jonathan reveals that Ukraine has committed a significant force to the Kursk offensive—as many as 10,000 troops. He sees this as a sign that Ukraine is making a serious push in this sector. He then delves into an analysis of the initial Russian defense in Kursk, which he attributes to the work of a "LovelyLad." According to this analysis, the sector was defended by ill-prepared conscript battalions under FSB command, with poor readiness and low morale. The Ukrainians easily bypassed Russian defensive fortifications due to a lack of manpower and complacency on the Russian side. Jonathan notes that while the Russians are now reinforcing Kursk with conscripts and equipment, their initial defense was surprisingly weak.

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Russian Civilian Reactions and the Plight of Abandoned Animals and People

🎦 31:09-34:02⏩

Jonathan points out the irony of a Russian woman claiming that America is to blame for the situation in Kursk, despite having no knowledge of what is actually happening there. He then transitions to a discussion of Russian behaviour, sharing anecdotes of Russian soldiers discarding uniforms to evade capture and civilians abandoning their pets and even a paralysed grandmother while evacuating. In contrast, he highlights Ukrainian efforts to care for abandoned animals and provide aid to civilians caught in the crossfire.

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Wrap up

🎦 34:02-34:09⏩

Jonathan concludes the update by thanking viewers for their support and encouraging them to share their thoughts in the comments.

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