Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia might have used its new 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile for the first time against Ukraine this morning."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:47⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He acknowledges the video is later than usual as he is in Ukraine and finding it challenging to maintain his usual schedule.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Update: Russian losses
🎦 00:47-01:46⏩
Jonathan reports significant Russian losses based on data compiled by Andrew Perpetua from the General Staff report. These losses, predominantly around Avdiivka and Novomokulivka, include 890 personnel, 7 tanks, 22 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs) and 20 artillery systems. He notes these figures suggest active Russian offensive operations.
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Social Media Reports: Loss ratios favour Ukraine
🎦 01:46-02:02⏩
Analysis of social media suggests Ukrainian forces are inflicting losses at a ratio of 5:1, further supporting the General Staff figures.
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Assessment of Ukrainian Losses
🎦 02:02-02:10⏩
Ukrainian losses are assessed to be light and of low value, comprising a few tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
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Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 02:11-02:57⏩
Jonathan lists destroyed Russian equipment, including surveillance systems, an engineering vehicle, artillery, and a significant number of tanks, highlighting the loss of a T-90M, their most advanced tank model. He reiterates that the sheer volume of Russian losses outweighs those of the Ukrainians.
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Ukrainian Special Forces Operation: Black Sea
🎦 02:59-03:47⏩
Jonathan reports a successful Ukrainian special forces operation, named "Operation Citadel", targeting Russian equipment in the Black Sea near occupied Crimea. The operation resulted in the capture of equipment and the destruction of a mast used to control operations and direct fire in the region. He encourages viewers to seek out footage of the operation on the Ukrainian MOD's official Twitter page.
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Russian Equipment Losses: Novomokrivka
🎦 03:49-04:22⏩
Further Russian equipment losses are reported in the Novomokrivka area. The sheer number of destroyed vehicles makes geolocation challenging.
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Analysis: Overnight Missile and Drone attacks
🎦 04:24-07:12⏩
Jonathan analyses a recent Russian missile and drone barrage, acknowledging its size compared to previous attacks but emphasising its relative lack of impact. He questions why Russia, if capable of launching more significant attacks, chooses not to do so, and suggests that production limitations are the most plausible explanation.
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Ukrainian Air Defence Performance
🎦 07:12-08:05⏩
Ukrainian air defences intercepted 29 of 39 Russian missiles, a 74.4% success rate. The breakdown includes a high interception rate against Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, while no Iskander ballistic missiles were intercepted.
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Possible Use of 3M22 Zircon Hypersonic Missile
🎦 08:05-09:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential use of Russia's new 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile, citing reports of wreckage found in Kyiv. The missile, designed to be difficult to intercept, is still under development, making its use significant.
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North Korean KN-23 Missiles Used in Attack
🎦 09:46-10:13⏩
Adding to the controversy, Jonathan reveals that two of the missiles used in the attack were identified as North Korean KN-23s, highlighting North Korea's growing involvement in supplying Russia with weapons.
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Kyiv Targeted: Impact on Civilians
🎦 10:14-11:15⏩
Jonathan shares the experience of a Ukrainian friend in Kyiv, highlighting the psychological impact of the attacks on civilians.
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Damage Assessment: Missile Strikes Across Ukraine
🎦 11:16-11:24⏩
Footage reveals large craters caused by ballistic missiles, suggesting significant damage, although the specific targets remain unclear.
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EU Diplomat's Experience in Kyiv Shelter
🎦 12:02-12:49⏩
Jonathan points out the experience of EU diplomat Josep Borrell, who had to shelter during the attacks in Kyiv. He challenges US politicians who downplay the situation to visit Kyiv and experience the reality firsthand.
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Casualties and Damage from Russian Attacks
🎦 12:50-13:28⏩
Reports from Euromaidan Press indicate 71 strikes across Ukraine, resulting in three destroyed buildings, five fatalities, and over 40 injuries. Jonathan notes that the casualty figures may rise.
Explosions Reported in Belgorod, Russia
🎦 13:28-13:59⏩
Explosions were reported in Belgorod, Russia. Preliminary information suggests that the target was a building materials plant. Air defences were active but failed to intercept.
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Large Explosion at Missile Factory Near Izhevsk
🎦 13:59-14:53⏩
A massive explosion occurred in Yagul, near Izhevsk, Russia, at a factory producing Iskander missiles and ICBMs. The cause of the explosion is unknown, but Jonathan speculates that it could be a Ukrainian strike or partisan activity.
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Analysis: Shahed Drone Production Costs and Implications
🎦 14:53-18:14⏩
Jonathan discusses hacked data revealing significantly higher Shahed drone production costs than previously thought. The data suggests that Iran is charging Russia much more than initially believed, potentially indicating production limitations and impacting Russia's ability to launch larger attacks.
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Impact of Strikes on Russian Missile Production
🎦 18:17-18:39⏩
Jonathan links the recent explosion at the missile factory near Izhevsk to previous strikes on similar facilities, suggesting that these attacks have likely disrupted Russian missile production schedules.
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Ukrainian Soldiers Report Issues with Starlink
🎦 18:40-19:12⏩
Jonathan reports complaints from Ukrainian soldiers about slow Starlink internet speeds, potentially hindering military operations.
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Jonathan's Frustration: Lack of Support for Ukraine
🎦 19:12-19:43⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration and disappointment over the lack of international support for Ukraine, citing issues like political opposition to aid, disinformation campaigns, and a perceived lack of empathy for Ukraine's plight.
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Disturbing Example of Russian Propaganda: Children's Song
🎦 19:44-21:04⏩
Jonathan condemns a disturbing example of Russian propaganda, a children's song promoting violence and militarism, as a crime against children.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:04-21:11⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers and asking them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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