Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - Ukraine's Delta System, Rus. Recruitment
Table of Contents 📖
"No, we actively would like Ukraine and NATO because they've got some serious knowledge and they've got some serious experience with dealing with X, Y, and Z in the war in Ukraine. It'd be a real boon for NATO to have Ukraine in it."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00.000-00:29.000
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second Ukraine War News Update video for 30th April 2025, focusing on military aid.
Latvia sending 1,500 combat drones; 12,000 total by mid-year
🎦 00:00.000-00:57.720
- Latvia is sending another 1,500 combat drones to Ukraine.
- By mid-year 2025, two Latvian companies will have delivered a total of 12,000 drones as part of the drone coalition.
- Jonathan notes this is fantastic news, whilst mentioning reports that 95% of drones used by Ukraine are sourced domestically (either manufactured or procured). He questions whether procurement includes off-the-shelf drones like Chinese Mavics.
Latvian drone contribution stimulates local economy
🎦 00:58.360-01:08.200
- Jonathan reiterates that Latvia will eventually provide 12,000 drones via two companies as part of the coalition.
- He points out that this initiative also serves to stimulate Latvia's own economy.
Delay in Australia sending ~50 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, US blamed
🎦 01:08.620-02:02.660
- More than six months ago (on 17th October 2024), Australia promised almost 50 older M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
- These US-made tanks have still not left Australia.
- Military sources in Australia are privately suggesting resistance or delays from the US White House are partly to blame.
- Australian Defence states the export process is ongoing and delivery remains targeted for 2025.
- This was part of a AUD $245 million military aid package. Jonathan calls the delay a "real, real shame".
US reportedly pressuring Greece to provide Patriot systems to Ukraine
🎦 02:03.120-03:02.720
- According to Greek media source Kati Marini [likely Kathimerini], the US is pressuring Greece to transfer its Patriot air defence systems (previously stationed in Saudi Arabia) to Ukraine.
- Jonathan finds this interesting as evidence the US is still actively helping Ukraine secure air defence, potentially fulfilling commitments made at a NATO summit (possibly by Marco Rubio).
- He views this as potentially good news if it materialises.
Potential US block on German Taurus missile delivery due to ITAR components
🎦 03:03.320-04:36.120
- Jonathan discusses the German Taurus cruise missile (comparable to Storm Shadow/SCALP EG). While there's potential for delivery under Christian Meurs [likely refers to Chancellor Scholz or Defence Minister Pistorius - check context], issues similar to Storm Shadow might arise.
- He clarifies the Storm Shadow issue deep into Russia might have been targeting intelligence constraints (US-dependent) rather than ITAR components within the missile itself.
- However, the Taurus does contain several ITAR-regulated components.
- Analyst Fabian Hoffmann suggests the US administration could block delivery. While unlikely under Biden, a future Trump administration might block it after potential complaints from Putin. Jonathan sees this as a "real challenge".
Norwegian Griff 60 cargo drone (60kg payload) manufactured for Ukraine
🎦 04:37.720-05:29.540
- Norwegian company Griff Aviation has produced the Griff 60 cargo drone for Ukraine.
- It features eight engines, can carry a 60kg payload, and has a flight time of 33 minutes.
- Jonathan notes this is a sizable and useful piece of kit, speculating if it could carry simple ATGMs.
Ukraine launches 'Brave One Market' online weapons marketplace for military units
🎦 05:30.100-07:48.460
- Ukraine has launched "Brave One Market", an online marketplace for the latest military technologies, announced by Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov (source: Kyiv Independent).
- Military units can purchase equipment and weapons using their own funds.
- Fedorov compared it to Amazon, but selling military innovations.
- The aim is to help units discover and access effective technologies available on the market, improving efficiency and spreading good practice beyond individual units.
- Jonathan finds this fascinating, noting the existing decentralisation of procurement (especially drones via fundraising) and seeing this as a sensible way to centralise access to information about available kit, potentially including user reviews.
NATO partner requests purchase of Ukraine's Delta digital battlefield system
🎦 07:49.840-11:40.305
- According to Militarny [Ukrainian military news source], an unnamed NATO partner has officially requested to purchase Ukraine's Delta digital battlefield system.
- Delta is described as homegrown wartime tech, now outpacing legacy NATO tools. It's used for communication, situational awareness (sharing unit locations), coordination, and integrating various data sources across the battlefield.
- Ukraine is developing an export model, possibly involving licensing agreements.
- The system has already been tested for compatibility with NATO systems (CWIX exercise).
- Key components include secure chat, a digital map (Delta Monitor), video analysis platform (Veja) for real-time drone feeds, and a target hub module.
- Jonathan mentions Jonathan Fink being impressed by a Ukrainian command hub ("James Bond lair").
- Recent additions include a mission control module for coordinating unmanned systems with EW and air defence.
- A Lieutenant Colonel is quoted saying some modules are novel even for NATO, developed due to the unique high-tech nature of the war in Ukraine (e.g., large-scale drone use).
- The system is contrasted with older NATO systems developed in the 1990s, which are allegedly expensive and resource-intensive to maintain and update.
- Delta was developed by the Centre for Innovation and Development of Defence Technologies of the Ministry of Defence and deployed across the security/defence sector in August 2024, making it relatively new.
Delta system seen as a positive export opportunity for Ukraine post-war
🎦 11:40.765-12:48.385
- Jonathan highlights the potential for Ukraine to export the successful Delta system.
- He sees this as a positive "silver lining" Ukraine can gain from the war.
- Beyond human expertise and tactics, Ukraine aims to export physical technology developed during the conflict (drones, missiles, etc.).
- He predicts Ukraine will become a world leader in drone warfare technology and expertise, which they will want to export. Delta is another element of this export potential.
OSINT Technical analysis: Delta's features and comparison to US CJADC2 concept
🎦 12:48.505-13:49.085
- Jonathan references OSINT Technical's commentary on the Delta system purchase request.
- Delta is praised as accessible and feature-rich, enhancing awareness and coordination.
- It passed a NATO security audit and interoperability testing last year.
- It's noted for turning traditional C2 structures "upside down" with an initial focus on the individual soldier, being user-friendly on laptops, tablets, and phones.
- A CSIS report last year suggested Delta might be comparable to the US DoD's complex Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (CJADC2) concept.
Delta's base modules (Target Hub, Veja) and architectural flexibility
🎦 13:50.285-14:12.925
- The two base modules, Target Hub and Veja Module, work together melding live drone imagery and targeting data for accurate strikes.
- Delta's main advantage is cited as its architectural flexibility, allowing quick incorporation of new plugins.
- Quotes Lieutenant Colonel Elisaveta Boiko [spelling from transcript] again on creating modules never used in NATO before.
Delta's reliance on high-bandwidth connection and potential vulnerabilities
🎦 14:13.405-15:12.085
- OSINT Technical points out Delta's greatest strength (data integration) is also its weakness: it requires a user to be connected (high bandwidth LTE or Starlink) for real utility.
- This data requirement raises governance and vulnerability concerns.
- While there are access levels, captured end-user terminals could potentially be compromised.
- Ukraine's MoD claims 162 information protection measures, though open-source validation is impossible.
- Jonathan concludes it seems like a decent system based on the plaudits.
Jonathan's view: Ukraine's expertise would be a significant asset to NATO
🎦 15:12.205-16:34.185
- Jonathan draws parallels with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, highlighting they were net contributors bringing valuable capabilities.
- He argues that if Ukraine were to join NATO (or the EU), they would bring significant expertise in modern warfare, drone operations, tactics, and technology like the Delta system.
- He states NATO should actively want Ukraine as a member because of this knowledge and experience.
- He expresses bemusement at perceived US resistance to Ukraine joining NATO, even under Biden.
Confirmation: 95% of drones used at front line are made in Ukraine
🎦 16:34.185-17:12.110
- Citing the Kyiv Independent and Deputy Defence Minister Valeriy Churkin [check spelling/role], Jonathan confirms the claim that over 95% of drones used at the front line are made in Ukraine.
- This suggests indigenous manufacturing, not just assembly or rebranding of foreign drones (e.g., Chinese).
- Jonathan calls this a "breakthrough" in the unmanned systems sector.
- (He briefly mentions Russian drone news but corrects himself, saving it for later).
CSIS report quote on future warfare: Fewer soldiers, more drones, new tech
🎦 17:13.230-18:57.750
- Jonathan references a CSIS report titled "Fewer Soldiers, More Drones: What Ukraine's Military Will Look Like After the War".
- He highlights the theme of drones replacing soldiers, being far easier and cheaper to replace ($400 drone vs. 25 years to grow/train a human). "You'd much rather lose a drone than a human."
- He quotes Shashank Joshi citing the report: Future air defence will move beyond current mixes of Western aid and legacy adaptations towards high-powered microwaves, high-energy lasers, and other low-cost methods.
- Jonathan reflects on the rapid evolution of the battlefield, mentioning the recent news of a British microwave weapon capable of downing multiple drones cheaply.
SBU detains defence officials over 120,000 defective mortar shells
🎦 18:58.410-19:40.870
- The SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) has detained four individuals, including defence plant management and military quality control officials.
- They are accused of supplying 120,000 defective mortar shells to Ukrainian forces.
- Jonathan recalls hearing about this issue previously – a large proportion of indigenously produced mortar shells turning out to be duds, causing significant consternation. He's glad it's being addressed.
90% of French KNDS 155mm shells supplied to Ukraine
🎦 19:40.870-20:02.010
- According to Radio France Internationale, 90% of the 155mm artillery shells produced by the French company KNDS are supplied to Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes this shows the massive impact the war in Ukraine is having on driving the expansion of defence production.
At least three F-16 airframes transported from US Boneyard to Poland for Ukraine
🎦 20:02.010-23:47.290
- Jonathan follows up on earlier reports of an F-16 being loaded onto a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 in the US.
- Citing Keystone Intel and OSINT Technical, he details the flight path: An An-124 (UR-82027) flew empty to Tucson International Airport (near Davis-Monthan AFB Boneyard) on April 25th, then departed loaded for Rzeszów, Poland (key logistics hub) on April 26th.
- Pictures were initially posted by conservative commentator Laura Loomer.
- OSINT Technical suggests at least three shrink-wrapped F-16 airframes were transported from the Boneyard.
- The US has not confirmed any direct F-16 donations. It's unclear if these are US airframes or foreign ones refurbished/stored there.
- The specific airframes (potentially older mothballed 'A' models, rather than newer 'C's) couldn't be identified. They appear complete but disassembled.
- The Boneyard also houses the 309th AMARG, which refurbishes aircraft.
- OSINT Technical speculates they might be older F-16 ADF models from Air National Guard service, possibly identifiable by 'bird slicer' IFF antennas.
- The most likely use is for spare parts, decoys, or ground trainers, rather than immediate operational use. Jonathan notes his earlier speculation about upgrades seems doubtful based on this.
Ukraine to send enlistment office staff to frontline, replaced by wounded soldiers
🎦 23:48.170-26:29.475
- The Ukrainian General Staff announced that military enlistment office personnel without combat experience or health restrictions will be sent to frontline duty.
- They will be replaced by soldiers wounded or concussed who can no longer serve in combat roles but can perform administrative or other duties.
- Jonathan strongly supports this, having advocated for such measures previously to address manpower shortages.
- He argues that people unable to perform frontline combat roles (due to injury, age, etc.) can still contribute effectively in rear-echelon positions (like enlistment offices, driving, maintenance), freeing up fitter personnel for combat units.
- He humorously remarks, "somebody's listened to my videos" but concludes it's a "really sensible approach".
Europe struggles to commit troops for potential peacekeeping; Estonia offers contribution
🎦 26:30.455-27:42.955
- According to The Times, Europe is struggling to commit even 25,000 troops for a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. A previously mooted 64,000-strong force seems unrealistic due to undermanned and underfunded armies.
- The focus is shifting towards training, air/sea support, and rearming Ukraine, which Jonathan notes isn't the strong security guarantee potentially needed for peace negotiations.
- He sees this as a sign of troubled times in European defence due to chronic underfunding.
- However, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal stated Estonia is ready to contribute tangibly to the UK/France-led "Coalition of the Willing" deterrence force providing security guarantees for Ukraine. Jonathan views this as good news.
Russia introduces new Bandarol jet-powered kamikaze drone (400km/h)
🎦 27:43.575-28:22.275
- Euromaidan Press reports Russia has introduced a new jet-powered kamikaze drone, the "Bandarol".
- It features a turbojet engine enabling speeds up to 400 km/h, significantly faster than previous propeller-driven drones, designed to evade ground defences.
- Jonathan notes this poses a potentially big challenge for Ukraine.
Chinese Type 63 MLRS reportedly in Ukrainian service (captured or purchased?)
🎦 28:22.855-29:13.015
- A picture suggests a Chinese 107mm Type 63 multiple launch rocket system is in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
- Source MAX-24 speculates it could have been purchased from third countries or captured from the Russians.
- Jonathan considers the implications: capture from Russia would be massive evidence of direct Chinese lethal aid to Russia ("a huge problem"). Purchase via third countries is less alarming. He hopes it's the latter.
Russian recruitment estimated at 30-40k/month; analysis versus losses
🎦 29:13.015-31:51.955
- Citing Rob Lee quoting the Wall Street Journal:
- US estimates ~30,000 Russians signing up monthly (up from 25k last summer).
- Some Eastern European intelligence officials estimate ~40,000/month.
- Jonathan analyses this against Ukrainian General Staff loss figures (which include wounded). If losses average 1,333/day, that equates to 40,000/month.
- Therefore, 40,000 recruits/month might only be a one-for-one replacement, not necessarily "swelling the ranks" significantly in terms of net gain.
- However, if a portion of the wounded return to duty (e.g., 10,000/month), then a 40,000/month intake would lead to a net increase (swelling the ranks by perhaps 10,000/month).
- The article suggests the extra manpower allows Russia rotation and the building of new units.
Report: Russia producing 300 T-90M tanks/year, allegedly stockpiling them
🎦 31:52.395-33:24.295
- The Wall Street Journal article also claims (via Western intelligence/Finnish military official):
- Russia produced ~40 T-90M tanks/year before the invasion (2021).
- Now producing nearly 300/year.
- However, almost none are reportedly being sent to Ukraine; they are staying on Russian soil for later use.
- Jonathan finds this problematic if true. Why stockpile new tanks instead of using them in the current war?
- He questions the rationale: Are they using up old stock first? Beefing up defences elsewhere (e.g., Finnish border)?
- He also expresses some scepticism about the 300/year figure, noting Russia's known focus on refurbishing older tanks. "I'm not wholly sure about that."
Wrap up
🎦 33:25.335-34:03.335
- Jonathan hopes the video was useful.
- He mentions an upcoming live stream with Jonathan Fink later that afternoon (2:30 PM UK time).
- He encourages viewers to watch the live stream recording if they missed it live, joking they can look back in 34 years to see what they thought.
- He signs off.