Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Logistics! Cruise Stocks, Scholz, Macron, & Killing Fields
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"New Western weapons are simply easier for computer literate Ukrainians to maintain than the leftover and ever-changing ex-Soviet junk heap they have been fighting with since February the 24th 2022."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an overview of the significant military aid package announced by the US, including:
- 50 Bradley IFVs and 500 TOW anti-tank missiles
- 100 M113 APCs
- 55 MRAPs (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles)
- 138 Humvees
- 18 155mm self-propelled howitzers
- Towed howitzers and artillery rounds
In total, this amounts to around 400 pieces of equipment which is a massive boost for Ukraine. Footage has already emerged of M2 Bradleys on the move in Bulgaria, suggesting some equipment may already be close to Ukraine despite the recent announcement.
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M109 Self-Propelled Howitzers
Jonathan discusses an article about the M109 self-propelled howitzer and how it compares to other artillery systems provided to Ukraine:
- The M109 is a "middle of the road" platform compared to the modern Panzerhaubitze 2000 and Caesar howitzers
- It has a shorter range and is slower (35 mph max speed)
- However, the M109 is based on a mature system with good spare parts availability
- This makes it easier to maintain and keep operational compared to the more advanced but less numerous Panzerhaubitze 2000 and Caesar
- Some M109 losses have been reported, likely due to it being forced to operate closer to the front lines
Logistics and Maintenance
Jonathan shares a thread by Trent Telenko, a logistics expert, on the maintenance and logistical impact of new Western weapons in Ukraine:
- Short term, Ukraine does not have the experience and personnel to fully utilize the new equipment
- However, many Ukrainians trained by the West in the past 5 months have been instructors to train Ukrainian maintainers and logistical people
- Ukraine's low Gini index (income inequality) means deep penetration of computer usage in the younger population
- This makes it much easier to train Ukrainians on new computer-based systems in a matter of weeks
- In contrast, Russia's oil wealth was not shared with the wider population, limiting access to technology
- Ukrainians are already experienced in maintaining a wide variety of old Soviet equipment
- Western equipment is designed to be easier to maintain to reduce costs over the lifetime of the system
- So while a challenge, Ukrainian personnel are well-positioned to adapt to and maintain the new Western weapons with the proper training which has likely already begun
France Calls for Russian Withdrawal
- France has called on Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, stating that the Kremlin's unilateral ceasefire announcement will not fool anyone
- The French Foreign Ministry said a lasting peace requires the total withdrawal of Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory
- This aligns with the 10-point peace plan presented by President Zelenskyy
- The statement represents a stronger stance against Russia by President Macron and is important to maintain Western unity and support for Ukraine
Dissent in Moscow
An article in the Financial Times describes the atmosphere of fear and paranoia in Moscow for those opposed to the war:
- Determining who is pro-Kremlin or anti-war is a dangerous guessing game
- Anti-war Russians have resorted to the Soviet-era tactic of "internal emigration" where dissent is only safe around the kitchen table with trusted friends
- Bookshops are selling works with "Aesopian" anti-war themes and books by authors labeled as foreign agents are sold wrapped in brown paper
- Russian musicians who have criticized the war have been blacklisted
Germany's Reluctance to Provide Marders
A satirical timeline suggests Germany under Chancellor Scholz has been reluctant to provide Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine:
- March 2022: Ukraine requests to buy 100+ Marders, Scholz claims none are available despite German industry having 200+ ready
- April 2022: Scholz offers 200 Marders to Greece instead and denies an export license application for 100 Marders for Ukraine
- May 2022: Scholz again offers Marders to Slovakia while still claiming none are available for Ukraine
- January 2023: After the US and France announce armored vehicle deliveries, Scholz says he has "found" 100 Marders for Ukraine and seeks praise
Diminishing Russian Missile Stocks
Ukrainian infographics from November 2022 and January 2023 suggest Russian missile stocks are being steadily depleted:
- November: 13% of Iskanders, 74% of Onyx, and 87% of S-300s remaining
- January: Iskander stocks down to 11%, Kalibr cruise missile stocks decreased from 37% to 9%, Kh-101 stocks heavily depleted
- Large numbers of S-300 surface-to-air missiles remain and are being used in a surface-to-surface role
- Diminished stocks call into question Russia's ability to wage a prolonged war against NATO
New Israeli Strike Drone
Israel has developed a new strike drone armed with hand grenades that can precisely drop them on targets or fire into rooms with enemy forces:
- Israeli commando units are already equipped with the drone and the army plans to provide it to infantry units next
- Represents the next evolution of drones getting closer to frontline action to support troops in an interactive way
- Likely to be adopted by modern armies around the world
Wagner Casualties in Bakhmut
A graphic image shows 33 dead Wagner PMC soldiers killed by Ukrainian forces on the Bakhmut front line:
- Wagner is making costly gains in Bakhmut that Russia sees as acceptable losses
- Many Wagner soldiers are convicts and viewed as expendable by Prigozhin and the Kremlin
Russian Troop Movements to Belarus
There have been numerous videos showing Russian troops and equipment moving into Belarus, prompting speculation about the purpose:
- Possibilities include a genuine threat of an offensive, a feint to distract Ukraine, or just training (though the scale seems excessive for training alone)
- Questions about the timeframe of the videos given the lack of snow in the region currently
- If an offensive is launched from Belarus, potential objectives could be Kyiv or Lviv to interdict Western aid shipments
- However, the terrain in northern Ukraine is marshy and mined, Russian forces still seem ill-prepared for a major offensive, and Belarusian forces may be reluctant to invade
- An attack on Lviv seems beyond Russian capabilities at the moment and would be very close to the Polish border, increasing the risk of escalation
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He appreciates all the support he receives through Buy Me a Coffee, PayPal, YouTube memberships and more.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The transcript was clear and I did not have any issues understanding the content. The one area that could potentially use clarification is the specific differences between the various Russian missile systems mentioned (Iskander, Kalibr, Kh-101, etc.) and their roles. But this is a minor point and does not impede understanding the overall update.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Read through the transcript and identify the main topics covered
For each topic, summarize the key points in a concise manner, providing enough context
Use bullet points or numbered lists to separate each topic
Bold or italicize key words for emphasis where appropriate
If Jonathan revisits a topic later, merge it into the original section
Include any sources, quotes or opinions Jonathan offers
Capture Jonathan's insights, analysis and reasoning
Include any mentions of tea, jokes or tangents that provide color
Use Ukrainian spellings for place names
Include the introduction and wrap-up sections
Select a key quote that captures the essence of the video
Review the summary to ensure all topics are covered and the British English is used throughout
