Ukraine War Update NEWS: News & Aid Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
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"Weapons are the way to peace. And that sounds sort of counterintuitive, but it's exactly right. You want to get Ukraine in a position of power to then start the negotiations."
Hello Team!
Jonathan explains that due to the amount of news to cover, he will split today's update into two separate videos - one for news and one for the frontline update.
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Russian Losses
According to the official Ukrainian figures, Russia suffered the following losses on the previous day:
- 760 personnel (higher than average)
- 6 tanks
- 10 APCs
- 14 artillery systems (a huge number)
- 1 aircraft
- 1 helicopter (KA-52)
- 6 drones (including an experimental Merlin reconnaissance drone)
- 7 vehicles/fuel tanks
Serbian President's Statement
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stated in an interview with Bloomberg: "For us, Crimea is Ukraine, the Donbas is Ukraine, and it will remain so. We have said from the very beginning that we cannot and will not support Russia's invasion of Ukraine." This is significant given the pro-Russian sentiment among some of the Serbian population, which Wagner has been trying to exploit for recruitment.
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NATO Intelligence on Russian Offensive Plans
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that intelligence indicates Russia is planning large-scale offensives against Ukraine in the coming months. It remains to be seen who will launch their offensive first and gain an advantage, and whether the battle for Bakhmut will impact Ukraine's plans.
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Stoltenberg's Comments at Davos
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Stoltenberg emphasised the importance of preventing a Russian victory in Ukraine, not only for Ukraine's sake but also to avoid sending a dangerous message to other authoritarian leaders that brutal force and violating international law can achieve their goals. He argued that providing military support to Ukraine is necessary to enable a negotiated, peaceful solution.
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Bulgaria's Secret Ammunition Supplies
It has emerged that Bulgaria has been secretly supplying ammunition to Ukraine, at times covering a third of their needs. The US and UK paid for transportation via cargo flights through Poland. As one of the poorer European countries, Bulgaria is in a unique position to manufacture Soviet-era ammunition. However, the Russian FSB has been active in Bulgaria, causing explosions at an ammunition plant to disrupt supplies.
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New Military Aid
Several countries have announced new military aid packages for Ukraine:
- Latvia will provide Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems, helicopters, machine guns, ammunition, and drones.
- Sweden is expected to announce the provision of 12 Archer wheeled self-propelled guns (155mm) and a number of CV90 infantry fighting vehicles.
- Canada has promised 200 Senator APCs, with the first 100 to be delivered in January. 8 are already in use by Ukraine's Kraken special forces units.
- The UK will supply 200 armoured fighting vehicles (including Bulldogs) and potentially another 100,000 artillery rounds.
US Military Aid Package
The US is preparing a major new military aid package for Ukraine, but it is not expected to include M1 Abrams tanks or ATACMS long-range missiles. The reluctance to provide tanks is attributed to the logistical and maintenance challenges rather than concerns over escalation. The package is likely to include Stryker armoured fighting vehicles and Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) with a range of 150km. The administration believes Ukraine can change the battlefield dynamic without ATACMS.
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Debate Over Tanks
There is an ongoing debate over the provision of Western tanks to Ukraine, particularly German-made Leopard 2s. Germany has stated it will not provide Leopard 2s unless the US provides M1 Abrams, but the US is unwilling to do so. Poland has threatened to send Leopard 2s to Ukraine with or without German export permission. France is also considering sending its Leclerc tanks in a bid to provide Berlin with a joint framework. The issue has caused significant criticism of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, both internationally and within his own governing coalition. Scholz's decision-making process and motivations are questioned.
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Gerasimov Letter Confirms Wagner-Russian Army Divide
A leaked letter written by Russian General Gerasimov at the end of December 2022 explicitly confirms that the Wagner Group is not part of the Russian army and that cooperation with the mercenaries is impossible. This highlights the ongoing power struggle and division between Wagner and the regular Russian military, which has played out both behind the scenes and on the frontlines, particularly in the Bakhmut area.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes that this has been a lengthy news update and that he will now record a separate frontline update video. He thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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